07-3 Open Season with Lindsey Wilson Exhibition

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

03
Lindsey-Wilson Finally Provides
the Cats a Real Opponent

With the coming of a new basketball season, hope springs eternal, and Kentucky Wildcats fans are not immune from the giddiness that hopeful expectations can produce. Coming off a 22-13 season full of disappointment, turmoil, and uncharacteristically poor performances, UK fans are now expectant. Despite the loss of 8 players from that team, 4 by graduation and 4 by pre-mature exits, and despite entering this season with two unclaimed scholarships, the mantra of the optimistic has been "addition by subtraction." The optimism is so strong in some circles with about 10 days remaining before the first exhibition game that many fans, even those with a bully pulpit of UK sports are forecasting a great turn around and a final four appearance.

Wouldn't that be awesome, BAAYYBEEE!!!!.

To seriously challenge for this level of success on the National Stage, this UK basketball team will have to put together a season for the ages, a turn around for the record books. Is that out of the realm for UK basketball teams. No, because UK fans have seen that occur before. For example, the 1965-66 Cats, coming off Coach Rupp's worst Season ever as UK's head man, 15-10 in 1965, was unranked at the beginning of the season, and finished the consensus #1 team in the game, losing a heartbreaker to Texas Western in the National Championship game. Add to that experience the memorable 1975 season that produced another NCAA Championship game appearance following a dismal 13-13 season in 1974. So, it would be wrong headed to say this team can never achieve as the Runts had done 41 years ago.

However, let's review the Runts accomplishment. The were a Junior/Senior Dominated team with two consensus All-Americans by year's end, Riley and Dampier. They added to the mix a Sophomore new comer, Thad Jaracz, and they dominated their opposition from the get go. This team could have two All-America juniors, Crawford and Morris, if each of them respond to the challenges that lie ahead and play with determination each and every game, and this team will have two senior starters, Perry and Thomas. Rather than a sophomore new comer to the starting lineup, this team will have a relative new comer, Junior Ramel Bradley as the fifth starter. The Runts were not a deep team, and neither will this team be deep, depending upon an untested sophomore and four untested Freshmen for the primary bench assistance.

So, it is possible. These two exhibition games will provide us our first real glimpse at the metal that these starters and the untested bench possess. Coach Smith has observed in the pre-season that Morris can do a lot of things, when he gives the effort, so will Morris give the effort? Crawford has made public pronouncements that he is prepared to assumed the role that this team requires from him, so will he do so with consistency?

These two exhibition games will provide a testing ground for both. Here are the data I will be looking for in these two exhibition games.

PACE: Over the last several years, the pace of UK's basketball games has steadily declined. In 2006, UK's pace was slower than the average NCAA D1 pace for the season for the first time under Coach Smith's tenure, at 79.5 possessions per game. During the prior 4 seasons UK's average game pace declined from 87.5 possessions in 2002, 82.6 possessions in 2003, 81.5 possessions in 2004, 80.8 possessions in 2005. Coach Smith promissed faster pace before each of these seasons, just as he has done this October, leading into the 2006-07 season. However, will this promise ring true this year, or will the well established trend of slower pace continue. If Coach Smith is serious about increasing pace, the pace of the exhibition games should have 100 or more possessions per game instead of the typical 92 we have seen over the last 7 years.

EFFICIENCY: Regardless of the pace, the real key to UK becoming a national contender in 2007 as the Runts did in 1966 will be evident in the Net Game Efficiency that this team posts on the year. Net Game Efficiency is the algebraic difference between a team's offensive efficiency and its defensive efficiency. As such, NGE values each year range from positive to negative ranges. Teams with winning records will post positive NGE values, while teams with losing records will post negative NGE values. The absolute value of NGE, either above or below zero, relates to the final winning percentage, and thus national competitiveness.

Nationally competitve teams will post NGE values greater than 0.160 points per possession. Tubby Smith's 9 year average NGE has been 0.100 points per possession. If this team is going to compete on the national stage in March and April, it must post NGE values better than an average Tubby Smith team [NGE =0.100 ppp]. The first indicator of this parameter will emerge following these two exhibition games. If the season ending target is 0.200 ppp, then UK should post a combined NGE for the two exhibition games of 0.300 ppp or higher.

These pace and efficiency numbers correspond to 30+ point blow out victories over these exhibition opponents, about 100-70 scores, or better.

Let the games begin.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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