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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings
05
Kentucky Closes Out Exhibition Preparations
Against South Carolina Upstate
Pre-Game Analysis:
Prior to these two exhibtion games, I established a triple criteria to measure and evaluate Kentucky 's pre-season exhibition performance. That criteria was:
1. Offensive Efficiency for the two games over 1.000 points per possession
2. Defensive Efficiency for the two games less than 0.700 poins per possession
3. Net Game Efficiency for the two games over 0.300 points per possession.
In addition, I identify a criteria to assess whether Coach Smith's annual promise of a faster tempo had any credibility for the 2006-07 season. Average over 100 possessions per game for the two exhibtion games.
The first exhibition game, against Lindsey-Wilson exceeded the triple criteria for efficiency but failed to confirm the faster pace promise. UK will complete this pair of exhibition games when they take on South Carolina Upstate on Monday night at Rupp Arena.
A review of the team statistics posted by Lindsey-Wilson and South Carolina Upstate during the last season, it seems that these teams posted similar records and similar offensive and defensive efficiencies against similar schedules in 2005-06. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect this second game will proceed in much the same manner as the Lindsey-Wilson game that produced a 40 point Kentucky victory.
First Half Summary:
Tubby again started Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Morris and Obzut, two seniors and three juniors. This is one of the most experienced starting line ups that Coach Smith has started a season with in a few years.
During the first half, Coach Smith used his bench extensively, using a 5 for 5 substitution at the first TV Timeout, and after the first defensive possessions following the second TV Timeout. Thereafter the substitution patterns were more random, and included considerable playing time for this heralded group of Freshmen.
Kentucky moved out to an early lead and expanded their lead in each of the 4 minute TV game segments to take a 23 point lead, 43-20, at the half.
In first half, UK had 43 possessions while USCU had 48 possessions. USCU earned an offensive rebounding edge, 5-2 but UK used their two offensive boards to make 4 second chance points, while USCU only managed 2 second chance points from its 5 second chance opportunities.
LW had an offensive efficiency of 0.419 ppp on its 43 first chance possessions and 0.400 for its 5 second chance possessions. UK had 0.951 ppp on its 41 first chance possessions and 2.000 ppp on its 2 second chance possessions. Kentucky won the battle of the boards 19-18 in the first half for total rebounds, and the -3 deficit on the offensive rebounding.
The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was 11-15[73.3%] but only 4-8[50%] for USCU. Field goal shooting for UK was 14-27 overall [51.9%] and 4-12 from long range [33.3%]. For USCU, their field goal shooting overall was a dismal 7-32[21.9%] and only 2-12[16.7%] from long.
Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:
MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 75th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 32 points, while USCU needs a whopping 55 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 86 possessions for the game for Kentucky and 96 possessions for LW. Kentucky scored its 75 th point of the game on an Obrzut jumper in the lane with about 3 minutes to play in the game.
Second Half Summary:
In the second half, Kentucky became sluggish, scoring only 38 points on its 48 possessions for a second half offensive efficiency of only 0.792 points per possession. The overall pace of the game exceeded 90 possessions [UK 92 and USCU 95] but the faster pace of the second half did not seem to suit the Kentucky players quite as well as the more moderate first half pace in which UK scored 43 points on its 44 for a first half efficiency of 0.977 poinst per possession.
USCU's first half offensive rebounding edge of 2 was the final offensive rebounding edge for the game, with USCU winning that statistical category 13-11, but Kentucky made much better use of its second chance possessions, converting their 11 offensive rebounds into 15 second chance points while USCU only managed to convert its 13 offensive rebounds into 6 second chance points.
USCU had an offensive efficiency of 0.537 ppp on its 82 first chance possessions and 0.462 ppp for its 13 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of only 0.805 ppp on its 81 first chance possessions and 1.364 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions. Kentucky controlled the boards overall with a total rebounding edge of 43-37, but as noted above lost the battle of the offensive boards by -2.
UK grabbed 31.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while USCU was only able to convert 28.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
For the second exhibition game in a row, UK failed to convert over 70% of its free throw opportunities, tonight making 23-33 [69.7%]. However, USCU was pitiful from the free throw line tonight only making 9-22[40.9%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 26-55 overall [47/3%] and 6-18 from long range [33.3%]. For USCU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a dismal 13-40 [32.5%] and equally dismal from long range, 5-22 [22.7%].
Post Game Analysis:
As noted prior to this game, UK 's performance in these two exhibition games can provide an important glimpse into what may be in store for this team this season. The criteria I presented were:
• At least 1.000 ppp offensive efficiency for the two games combined.
• No more than 0.700 ppp defensive efficiency for the two games combined,
• A Net Game Efficiency of at least 0.300 ppp for both games combined
The two game exhibition performance failed to exceed the 1.000 ppp offensive efficiency [0.983 ppp], exceeded the target for defense [0.588 ppp], and exceeded the target for NGE [0.395 ppp]. With respect to the pace of play, the pace of these two games was almost identical to the pace of the two exhibition games last season, averaging 89 possessions per game.
At times during these games, this team showed flashes of outstanding play, but the second half of the USCU game is cause for concern about the future. This team seems very prone to committing turnovers [20 per game average in these two games] and the failure to win the battle of the offensive boards against two over matched, undersized NAIA and NCAA D2 teams is a major area of concern. In the past, the offensive rebounding differential posted in the exhibition games has been much higher than the corresponding average offensive rebounding differential that the team can achieve on the season. Therefore, an offensive rebounding deficit in these games is foreboding that this team will probably not win the offensive boards against most D1 opponents this season.
The likelihood that UK's opponents will enjoy on average 2 or 3 extra possessions per game coupled with UK's propensity to commit turnovers in its half court offense casts a huge shadow over the efficiencies posted against these two exhibition opponents.
Next Game On Schedule:
On November 15, 2006 , UK will open its regular season game against Miami of Ohio at Rupp Arena.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Copyright 2006
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
All Rights Reserved