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BASKETBALL
2006-07 Season Analytical Writings
06
Kentucky Open Season Against
Miami of Ohio at Rupp
Pre-Game Analysis:
The exhibition games are in the books for UK and Miami of Ohio During the exhibitions, UK and Miami cruised to easy victories against the zero resistance opposition teams, and fans from both schools enjoyed visions of championships dancing in their heads.
However, we all know, or at least should know by this point, that the impressive numbers that any team posts in such contests can't stand once real, D1 competition arrives. Miami learned this lesson on Saturday when they lost 57-56 to Wright State on a last second shot. According to their Official Website, “Miami lost its first home opener since dropping a 93-82 decision to Evansville in the 1990-91 home opener ... the loss snapped a streak of 15-straight home-opening wins ... it also snapped a three-game win streak against the Raiders and was Wright State's first win in Millett Hall since Dec. 7, 1982.” Nevertheless, Miami of Ohio now has one real game under their belts, and they learned more about their team from that singular experience than UK has learned about itself since October 13 and their two exhibition games.
Let the games begin.
UK has played Miami of Ohio 24 times in Basketball, and UK holds a 20-4 all-time record against them. Even more impressive is the fact that Miami 's four wins over UK all occurred prior to 1929, and prior to Adolph Rupp's arrival at UK . UK has played Miami four times in the NCAA tournament, four times in Oxford , and the remainder of the meetings were regular season games in Lexington . The last meeting was in 1999 in the NCAA at St. Louis when UK won by 15 points, 58-43.
Last year, Miami of Ohio was 18-10, posting an RPI ranking of 84 with a Strength of Schedule of 0.5090. They posted an offensive efficiency on the season of 0.898 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.859 ppp. These results, when adjusted for schedule strength, indicate last year's UK team would be about 4 to 10 points better on average, depending upon the venue.
A more interesting characteristic of last season's Miami record is that they averages a snail's pace, 70 possessions per game as compared to UK's NCAA D1 average pace of about 80 possessions per game. In their game on Saturday with Wright State , they had 72 possessions, and limited Wright State to only 65 possessions for the entire game.
Wednesday night will be an interesting test for this new version of Wildcats, the version that Tubby Smith says he wants to press and run more. Will UK assert this new found desire to run, or will UK allow Miami of Ohio to dictate the pace of this season opener.
I believe that UK will claim its first victory in its home opener against Miami of Ohio, and I will be interested in the following results:
- The pace of the game: Will UK dictate the pace of this game or play to the opponent's preferences? If under 80 possessions, this UK team will not be successful in its mission to run more, and if in the upper 80s, I will be impressed by at least this teams desire to do so.
- Net Game Efficiency: Will UK assert itself in a convincing manner, regardless of the pace of play? A NGE of 0.25 or more would demonstrate success, while a NGE of 0.15 or less would be lackluster.
- Offensive Rebounding: Will UK control the boards and generate bonus possessions through its rebounding efforts? A +4 or more will demonstrate control of the boards, and any net loss in the offensive board game will demonstrate a weakness on the boards.
So, Let The Games Begin! It has been entirely too long since we had real games to enjoy and anticipate. Let's all hope that on Wednesday night, the Wildcats demonstrate that their debut has been worth the wait.
Based on last year's overall performances, this year's pre-season exhibitions, and Miami of Ohio's home opener loss to Wright State , I predict a 70-60 UK victory with about 75 possessions. The pre-game magic number is 66 points.
First Half Summary:
Tubby again started Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Morris and Stevenson, one seniors, three juniors and a freshman. Tubby was forced to alter his lineup to some extent because of the fact that Carter sustained an injury this week and is not available. However, this starting line-up does reflect a decision to put Obrzut on the bench. Even with Stevenson starting tonight, Tubby is starting this season with one of the most experienced starting line ups of recent years. The Carter injury coupled with the Thomas suspension for tonight's game, UK 's front line consists of Perry, Morris, Stevenson, Obrzut, and walk-on Coury for the 3, 4 and 5 spots. In all likelihood, Crawford and perhaps Meeks will have to share time at the 3 tonight.
Miami came out of the blocks red hot, from long range hitting 4 of their first 5 three point attempts, while UK started the game playing one on one basketball and only making their first of their first four attempts from long range. During the first 2 mini-game segments, Miami built their largest lead, 16-6. During the next two segments, the teams exchanged baskets, fouls and turnovers, with Miami holding a 7 point lead, 22-15 at the under 4 timeout. Out of this TV break, Joe Crawford came alive for UK, and the Cats outscored Miami an impressive 16-5 over the last 4 minutes of the first halve to take a pre-carious 4 point halftime lead, 31-27.
In first half, UK had 32 possessions while Miami had 34 possessions. Miami earned an offensive rebounding edge, 3-2 but UK used their two offensive boards to make 2 second chance points, while Miami did not score on its 3 second chance opportunities.
Miami had an offensive efficiency of 0.871 ppp on its 31 first chance possessions and 0.000 for its 3 second chance possessions. UK had 0.967 ppp on its 30 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 2 second chance possessions. Miami won the battle of the boards 15-13 in the first half for total rebounds, and the +1 advantage on the offensive rebounding.
The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was 4-7[57.1%] and Miami was only 1-3[33.3%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 11-23 overall [47.8%] and 5-9 from long range [55.5%] primarily on the strength of Crawford's fine shooting late in the half. For Miami, their field goal shooting overall was a respectable 11-24[45.8%] and an impressive 4-8[50.0%] from long range, but their long range proficiency cooled from their torrid 4-5 start with Miami missing their remaining 3 attempts on the half..
Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:
MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 61 st point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 30 points, while Miami needs 34 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 65 to 70 possessions for the game. Kentucky scored its 75 th point of the game on an Obrzut jumper in the lane with about 3 minutes to play in the game.
Second Half Summary:
In the second half, Kentucky continues in the manner of its strong first half finish and stretches its 4 point half time lead to 9 points at the under 16 TV timeout of the second half, 39-30. Two changes were evident. First, UK is taking the ball inside, and Morris is converting his opportunities. However, Miami responded to the Cats' attempt to deliver the knock out punch, and cut the lead to 3 and trailed by 4 40-36 at the under 12 TV Timeout. The teams battled even over the next 9 minutes and went to their benches with 3:05 to play at the under 4 TV Timeout with the Cats clinging to a 51-46 lead. Kentucky closed out the win with a 57-46 final score.
Kentucky became much more sluggish in the second half, scoring only 26 points on its 34 possessions for a second half offensive efficiency of only 0.765 points per possession. The overall pace of the game was under 70 possessions [ UK 66 and Miami 70].
Kentucky asserted itself on the boards in the second half, converting their first half rebounding deficit to a 32-30 advantage for the entire game. However, Miami won the battle of the offensive boards for the night, 9-6 [ UK -3]. Kentucky made much better use of its second chance possessions, converting their 6 offensive rebounds into 5 second chance points while Miami only managed to convert its 9 offensive rebounds into 4 second chance points.
Miami had an offensive efficiency of 0.689 ppp on its 61 first chance possessions and 0.444 ppp for its 9 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of only 0.852 ppp on its 60 first chance possessions and 0.833 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions. Kentucky controlled the boards overall with a total rebounding edge of 32-30, but as noted above lost the battle of the offensive boards by -3.
UK grabbed 22.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Miami was able to convert 25.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK failed to convert over 70% of its free throw opportunities, tonight making 11-16 [68.8%]. However, Miami was effective from the free throw line tonight making 10-13[76.9%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 20-47 overall [42.6%] and 6-17 from long range [35.3%]. For Miami , their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a dismal 9-33 [27.3%] but a healthy 40.0% from long range, 6-15.
Kentucky committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.6 possessions. Miami committed 16 turnover, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.4 possessions.
Post Game Analysis:
As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.
- The pace of the game: Will UK dictate the pace of this game or play to the opponent's preferences? If under 80 possessions, this UK team will not be successful in its mission to run more, and if in the upper 80s, I will be impressed by at least this teams desire to do so. UK had only 66 possessions for the game, and Miami “raced” to a total of 70.
- Net Game Efficiency: Will UK assert itself in a convincing manner, regardless of the pace of play? A NGE of 0.25 or more would demonstrate success, while a NGE of 0.15 or less would be lackluster. The final NGE for this game was 0.206.
- Offensive Rebounding: Will UK control the boards and generate bonus possessions through its rebounding efforts? A +4 or more will demonstrate control of the boards, and any net loss in the offensive board game will demonstrate a weakness on the boards. UK lost the battle of the offensive boards, -3.
Next Game On Schedule:
On November 17, 2006 , UK will play its second regular season game against Mississippi Valley State at Rupp Arena.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Copyright 2006
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
All Rights Reserved