07-3 Open Season with Lindsey Wilson Exhibition

Prior to the season opener against Miami of Ohio, it was somewhat easy to see a struggle on the horizon with UK pulling away at the end for a low, double digit win. It was equally easy to foresee a pace in that game that would put Tubby's promise of up-tempo for 2007 to the test, but I had no idea that UK would only enjoy 66 total possessions in the game instead of the 75 possessions I had forecast. Well, UK did survive this “test” 57-46, but it was not a pretty thing to watch overall.

Yes, there were a couple of bright spots to take away from this first game. Mr. Stevenson's defense was intimidating and effective, and Joe Crawford showed glimpses of powerful offensive punch. However, the other starters were essentially missing in action. Bradley took uncontrolled shots and turned the ball over 6 times in a 66 possessions game. If this were an 80 possession game [ UK 's 2006 average], that turnover rate for Bradley alone would be equivalent to 8 turnovers just from one player. Morris again had limited playing time due to his 4 fouls, and Perry reverted back to his old self, missing close in shots more than once and generally not being a factor in the game. UK 's bench was not helpful, with the modest contributions by Freshman Meeks who also plays with a similar enthusiasm as Stevenson.

Mississippi Valley State is next on Friday, November 17, 2006 , again at Rupp. While Miami's style of play is very deliberate, averaging approximately 70 possessions per game last year and this, MVS like to get out and run the ball, currently averaging in the mid 80's on their pace after two early season games against Mississippi and Creighton, both lopsided road losses, 72-49 and 78-42.

Prior to the Miami game, I identified three statistics that would be significant to my thinking. In my opinion, these same statistics are important for the MVS and all other games this season.

The pace of the game: Will UK dictate the pace of this game or play to the opponent's preferences? In this case, MVS prefers an up-tempo, which I am confident Tubby Smith will do nothing to control. Therefore, if Tubby is intent on playing uptempo at all this season, this game and this opponent is the perfect stage to show the world. If this game has under 80 possessions by either team, this UK team will not be successful in its mission to run more, and if this game is played with more than 90 possessions per team, I will be impressed by at least this teams desire to do so. Against Miami of Ohio, UK had only 66 possessions for the game, and Miami “raced” to a total of 70.
Net Game Efficiency: Will UK assert itself in a convincing manner, regardless of the pace of play? A NGE of 0.40 or more would demonstrate success, while a NGE of 0.30 or less would be lackluster against this opponent.
Offensive Rebounding: Will UK control the boards and generate bonus possessions through its rebounding efforts? MVS goes to the boards. In their first two games, they had 15 and 14 offensive rebounds respectively. However, they allowed their opponents to grab 15 and 21 offensive rebounds respectively. This game provides UK an opportunity to demonstrate a willingness to go to the boards. A +4 or more will demonstrate control of the boards, and any net loss in the offensive board game will demonstrate a weakness on the boards. UK lost the battle of the offensive boards to Miami of Ohio, -3.

According to the UK Media Guide, there have been no prior meetings between UK and Mississippi Valley State in basketball. Last season, MVS posted a record of 9-18 earning a RPI rank of 297 for their play in the SWAC and a Strength of Schedule of 0.4353.

In their first two games this season, MVS has posted offensive and defensive efficiencies of 0.555 ppp and 0.862 ppp respectively. Based on this very limited early data, and UK 's performance against Miami of Ohio, which is even more limited, I see UK as a heavy favorite in this game, and have predicted a 78-46 score on about 84 possessions and a predicted offensive efficiencyof 0.927 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.562 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 63 points.

Tubby again started Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Morris and Stevenson, one seniors, three juniors and a freshman even though Thomas was dressed and available. The Cats came out of the blocks on fire tonight, scoring the first 15 points after converting two free throws immediately following the first TV timeout. Kentucky continued its domination of MVS and by the half led 41-18.

In first half, UK had 42 possessions while MVS had 42 possessions. MVS earned an offensive rebounding edge, 6-5 and MVS used their second chance opportunities much more effectively than UK . MVS converted its 6 second chances into 6 second chance points while UK could only manage 2 second chance points from their 5 second chance possessions in the first half

MVS had an offensive efficiency of 0.333 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 1.000 for its 6 second chance possessions. UK had 1.054 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and only 0.400 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions. Kentucky won the battle of the boards 18-16 in the first half for total rebounds, but had an offensive rebounding deficit of -1 for the half.

The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was 3.4[75.0%] and MVS was only 1-2[50.03%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 17-34 overall [50.0%] but only 4-12 from long range [33.3%]. For MVS, their field goal shooting overall was a pitiful 7-26[26.9%] and a weak 3-10 [30.0%] from long range.

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 71 st point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 30 points, while MVS needs a whopping 53 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 84 possessions for the game. Kentucky scored its 71 st point of the game on a Morris free throw with 4:48 to play in the game..

In the second half, Kentucky continues in the manner of its strong first half start in the first segment of the second half expanding their halftime lead to 30 points, 54-24. However, thereafter, the pace slowed and the efficiency fell, especially UK 's defensive effectiveness, and the teams simply played out the final 16 minutes to a 79-56 UK victory.

Kentucky asserted itself on the boards in the second half, converting their first half offensive rebounding deficit into a net offensive rebounding advantage for the game, 14-11, +3. Overall, UK controlled the boards 36-29 Kentucky converted its 14 second chance opportunities into 12 second chance points and MVS used its 11 second chance opportunities to also claim 12 second chance points.

MVS had an offensive efficiency of 0.647 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.091 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of only 0.944 ppp on its 70 first chance possessions and 0.857 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed an impressive 43.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MVS was able to convert 33.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot the ball well from the free throw line tonight, converting 11-14 [78.6%] However, MVS was even more effective from the free throw line tonight making 6-7 [85.7%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 30-63 overall 47.6%] and 8-25 [32.0%] from long range. For MVS, their field goal shooting overall was 22-55 [40.0%] and a healthy 37.5% from long range, 6-16.

Kentucky committed 15 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.6 possessions. MVS committed 21 turnover, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 3.8 possessions.

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

• The pace of the game: Will UK dictate the pace of this game or play to the opponent's preferences? In this case, MVS prefers an up-tempo, which I am confident Tubby Smith will do nothing to control. Therefore, if Tubby is intent on playing uptempo at all this season, this game and this opponent is the perfect stage to show the world. If this game has under 80 possessions by either team, this UK team will not be successful in its mission to run more, and if this game is played with more than 90 possessions per team, I will be impressed by at least this teams desire to do so. Against Miami of Ohio, UK had only 66 possessions for the game, and Miami “raced” to a total of 70. Agaiinst MVS, UK had 84 possessions and MVS had 79 possessions. This pace does not indicate any increase in pace for this UK team over last season.

• Net Game Efficiency: Will UK assert itself in a convincing manner, regardless of the pace of play? A NGE of 0.40 or more would demonstrate success, while a NGE of 0.30 or less would be lackluster against this opponent. Tonight's game NGE was 0.232 ppp which is too low given the quality of this opponent.

• Offensive Rebounding: Will UK control the boards and generate bonus possessions through its rebounding efforts? MVS goes to the boards. In their first two games, they had 15 and 14 offensive rebounds respectively. However, they allowed their opponents to grab 15 and 21 offensive rebounds respectively. This game provides UK an opportunity to demonstrate a willingness to go to the boards. A +4 or more will demonstrate control of the boards, and any net loss in the offensive board game will demonstrate a weakness on the boards. UK lost the battle of the offensive boards to Miami of Ohio, -3. Tonight, UK managed to move to the plus side of the offensive rebounding battle, to +3. While that is an improvement, it is marginal when compared the offensive rebounding advantaged earned against MVS by Mississippi and Creighton.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “C” and “D+” respectively as shown below:

On November 20, 2006 , UK will play its third regular season game against DePaul in the Maui Classic in Hawaii ..