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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings
08
Kentucky Defeats DePaul 87-81
As Offense Is Efficient and Defense Disappears
Pre-Game Analysis:
The early season cupcakes have been devoured, and while they went down fine, some of the rough edges produced a measure of indigestion for the Cats in these early season match up. Following the Mississippi Valley State game on Friday night, the Cats traveled to Maui , Hawaii . They have been adjusting to the 5 hour time shift and preparing for tonight's game with the DePaul Blue Demons.
DePaul has played three times this young season, posting a 1-2 record. Bradley defeated DePaul 78-58 and Northwestern handed DePaul their second straight loss to start the season, 49-39. On Friday night, DePaul finally posted its first win against lightweight Eastern Illinois , 71-41.
As I have discussed with respect to UK's previous games so far this season, I am watching three key performance measures this early season; pace, NGE, and offensive rebounding differential. Prior to the Miami game, I identified three statistics that would be significant to my thinking. In my opinion, these same statistics are important for the MVS and all other games this season.
- • The pace of the game: Will UK dictate the pace of this game or play to the opponent's preferences? In the first two games, UK allowed its opponent to dictate the game pace, and the overall pace was slower than the earlier game pace last season. Tonight, I anticipate a pace in the low to mid 70s.
- • Net Game Efficiency: The early NGE values have been lower than anticipated given the quality of the opponents in the first two games. Tonight, I anticipate that UK will defeat DePaul with a NGE for the game of about 0.124 ppp. If the NGE exceeds 0.2, UK will have put in an impressive performance, whereas a NGE of less than 0.1 ppp will be disappointing.
- • Offensive Rebounding: UK 's early offensive rebounding has been mediocre at best, and as the competition levels increase, the Cats will find it more difficult to control the offensive boards. Tonight, I anticipate a DePaul team that will give UK all that they want on the boards, and more. UK needs to win the battle of the offensive boards tonight to prevail.
Last season, DePaul posted a record of 12-15 earning a RPI rank of 91 for their play in the SWAC and a Strength of Schedule of 0.5810.
In their first three games this season, DePaul has posted offensive and defensive efficiencies of 0.778 ppp and 0.812 ppp respectively. Based on this very limited early data, and UK 's performance against Miami of Ohio and MVS, which is even more limited, I see UK as a nine point favorite in this game, and have predicted a 62-53 score on about 74 possessions and a predicted offensive efficiencyof 0.853 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.720 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 59 points.
First Half Summary:
Tubby again started Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Morris and Stevenson, one seniors, three juniors and a freshman even though Thomas was dressed and available. The Cats came out of the blocks on fire again tonight, scoring the first 10 points. While UK 's shooting continued strong throughout the early minutes, DePaul finally began to score, and closed to 18-14 forcing Kentucky to take a time out. While the early efficiency for Kentucky has been very high, scoring 18 points on only 14 possessi3ons, its defense has been porous allowing DePaul to score 14 points on its first 14 possessions at the first timeout at the 13:29 mark of the first half. The second game segment also a long one, extending to under the 10:00 mark, with UK again sprinting out to a 30-21 lead, scoring its 30 points on 22 possessions, while DePaul posted its 21 points on 21 possessions. UK is managing this lead solely on the strength of its high offensive efficiency, 1.364 ppp, which is not likely to hold for an entire game.
Over the next 6 minutes, DePaul continues its efficient offensive execution and UK begins to miss, and at the under 4 TV timeout, the score has tightened to only 3 points, 34-31. At this break in the action, the UK offensive efficiency had fallen to about 1 point per possession, and DePaul's offensive efficiency continued at its same game level of about 1 ppp. The game pace is low 80s possession, which is faster than anticipated for these two teams.
In first half, UK had 39 possessions while DePaul had 37 possessions. Kentucky earned an offensive rebounding edge, 4-3 and each team used their second chance opportunities much more effectively than their first chance possessions, converting their second chance opportunities into 6 second chance points.
DePaul had an offensive efficiency of 0.941 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 2.000 for its 3 second chance possessions. UK had 1.057 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 1.500 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions. Kentucky won the battle of the boards 14-13 in the first half for total rebounds, and had an offensive rebounding advantage of +1 for the half.
The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was 6-7[85.7%] and DePaul was a perfect 4-4[100.03%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 16-30 overall [53.3%] and a strong 5-10 from long range [50.0%]. For DePaul, their field goal shooting overall was a also strong, 15-28 [53.6%] and a strong 4-8 [50.0%] from long range. UK committed 6 turnovers in the half, one for every 6.5 possessions and DePaul committed 7 turnovers for the half, one for every 5.3 possessions.
Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:
MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 84th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 41 points, while DePaul needs a whopping 46 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 84 possessions for the game. Kentucky scored its 84 th point of the game on a Bradley free throw with 0:57 to play in the game..
Second Half Summary:
In the second half, Kentucky came out of the locker room somewhat lethargic, allowing DePaul to close the half time lead and actually take a 1 point lead, 51-50 before UK reasserted itself building leads up to 8 points down the stretch to the under 4 TV time out which found UK holding to a 7 point lead 76-69. The teams played out the final 4 minutes with UK securing the victory, 87-81
Rebounding for the game was fairly even, with Kentucky maintaining its first half lead in total rebounds with a 29-28 final tally. However, the Cats +1 offensive rebounding edge in the first half became a -2 offensive rebounding deficit for the game, 8-10. Kentucky converted its 8 second chance opportunities into 14 second chance points and DePaul used its 10 second chance opportunities to also claim 15 second chance points.
DePaul had an offensive efficiency of 0.971 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 1.500 ppp for its 10 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.058 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.750 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions.
UK grabbed only 30.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while DePaul was able to convert 33.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK shot the ball well from the free throw line tonight, converting 17-21 [81.0%] DePaul was also effective from the free throw line tonight making 11-14 [78.6%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 32-56 overall [57.1%] and 6-15 [40.0%] from long range. For DePaul, their field goal shooting overall was 32-60 [53.3%] and a healthy 42.9% from long range, 6-14..
Kentucky committed 11 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 7.0 possessions. DePaul committed 11 turnover, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 7.1 possessions.
Post Game Analysis:
As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.
- • The pace of the game: Will UK dictate the pace of this game or play to the opponent's preferences? In the first two games, UK allowed its opponent to dictate the game pace, and the overall pace was slower than the earlier game pace last season. Tonight, I anticipate a pace in the low to mid 70s. The actual pace was 76 possessions for UK and 77 possessions for DePaul.
- • Net Game Efficiency: The early NGE values have been lower than anticipated given the quality of the opponents in the first two games. Tonight, I anticipate that UK will defeat DePaul with a NGE for the game of about 0.124 ppp. If the NGE exceeds 0.2, UK will have put in an impressive performance, whereas a NGE of less than 0.1 ppp will be disappointing. The NGE for this game was 0.093 ppp.
- • Offensive Rebounding: UK 's early offensive rebounding has been mediocre at best, and as the competition levels increase, the Cats will find it more difficult to control the offensive boards. Tonight, I anticipate a DePaul team that will give UK all that they want on the boards, and more. UK needs to win the battle of the offensive boards tonight to prevail. UK lost the offensive rebounding battle, -2.
Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B+” and “E” respectively as shown below:
Next Game On Schedule:
On November 21, 2006 , UK will play its fourth regular season game against UCLA in the Maui Classic in Hawaii ..
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Copyright 2006
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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