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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

10
Kentucky Plays First Game Off a Loss
Confronts Memphis in Maui for Third Place

Pre-Game Analysis:

Tuesday night, UK sustained its first loss of this young season against UCLA, 73-68. It is a fact that UCLA is currently ranked #5 in the nation, and as this season develops, it is entirely possible that UCLA may reach the Final Four for the second year in a row. However, there can be no mistake that UCLA did not play like a top five team, even a top 20 team last night against Kentucky .

Many UK fans are taking some comfort from the closeness of the final margin, 5 points, citing UCLA's lofty ranking as evidence of UK 's new found prowess. However, UCLA hit a paultry 10.5% of its three point attempts, and barely ½ of its free throw opportunities. Kentucky 's defense did not cause either of these poor performance levels as UCLA's three point opportunities lost were clear, open, uncontested in most cases. They simply did not fall. However, the aspects of last night's game that UK did affect include:

•  Turnover Margin: 16-8 in favor of UCLA

•  Offensive Rebounding Margin: 14-6 in favor of UCLA

•  Second Chance Point Margin: 14-3 in favor of UCLA

The game was not totally devoid of encouragement for UK fans. First, last year's team would have quit in the face of a 17 point, 26-9 first half deficit, and this team did not quit. Second, the freshmen members of this squad are real players, deserving of more playing time so the team can accelerate the process of their becoming sophomores by the end of this season. Third, Morris can score inside when he receives the ball on the blocks. Fourth, Crawford and Bradley can knock down the three when open.

Will the Kentucky basketball program learn the appropriate and necessary lessons from last night's loss? Can they implement the necessary changes in personnel and attitude in time to impact today's game against Memphis ? We will find out in about 3 hours from now.

Calipari's Memphis appears to be the antithesis of Tubby Smith's Kentucky . Kentucky averages a below average 77 possessions per game and Memphis is averaging a blistering 97 possessions per game. As much as Tubby talks about wanting to run, Calipari's team is running, and they don't stop running. In three games, Memphis has posted an early 2-1 record in which their offensive efficiency has been 0.948 ppp and 91 points per game. Memphis has posted a defensive efficiency of 0.777 ppp while holding opponents to 75 ppg. Their early NGE is 0.171 ppp.

Kentucky has an almost identical offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.945 ppp while scoring about 73 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency has not measured up to Memphis ' standards, at 0.818 ppp on about 64 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.127 ppp. According to published RPI data, Memphis has the slight edge over UK on the strength of their respective early schedules.

Yesterday, I reported that UCLA had produced a plus eight offensive rebounding margin in its only D1 game prior to last night. Last night, UCLA demonstrated that their board work is for real. Memphis ' rebounding has not been a distinguishing characteristic, and after 3 games, Memphis and its opponents have an equal number of offensive rebounds.

As I have discussed with respect to UK's previous games so far this season, I am watching three key performance measures this early season; pace, NGE, and offensive rebounding differential.

•  The pace of the game: It is becoming clear that Tubby Smith teams do not dictate pace, but yield to the pace selected by its opponents. Tonight, it is clear that Memphis plays at a very fast pace, averaging 97 possessions per game as compared to UK 's current average of 77 possessions per game. I anticipate a pace today in the upper 80s to low 90s.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Based on the prior performances by these teams this season, I anticipate that Memphis will produce a NGE for this game in their favor, about 0.120 ppp. If the final NGE is in Memphis ' favor and exceed 0.2 ppp, this will be further indication of trouble ahead for the UK team this season. On the other hand, a NGE for this game of less than 0.050 ppp could provide reason for hope ahead.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Thus far this year, rebounding has been an apparent weakness for this UK team, and offensive rebounding has been difficult for this thin and weak front line. Therefore, it will be a positive outcome for UK to produce an offensive rebounding advantage in this game, even +1 would be positive.

Last season, Memphis posted a record of 30-3 record prior to the NCAA tournament and finished with a final RPI rank was #4 and a Strength of Schedule of 0.5683.

In their first three games this season, Memphis has posted offensive and defensive efficiencies of 0.948 ppp and 0.777 ppp respectively. Based on this very limited early data, and UK 's performance to date, which includes four regular season games, I see UK as an eleven point underdog in this game, and have predicted a 81-70 Memphis win on about 87 possessions by both teams. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.807 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.935 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 77 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby again started Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Morris and Stevenson, one senior, three juniors, and a freshman. Memphis came out and felt Kentucky out during the first segment of the half, content to regulate their pace, and at the end of that first segment, Memphis forged a tenuous 5-3 leads. However, for the remainder of the half, Memphis accelerated and by the halftime, Memphis had 50 possessions to UK 's 40 possessions in building a fragile 3 point halftime lead, 43-40.

Memphis earned an offensive rebounding edge, 10-1 that provided Memphis a huge advantage on second chance points, 11-2, for a +9 offensive rebounding differential for the first half. Memphis built a commanding total rebounding advantage as well, 23-12 in the first half.

Memphis had an offensive efficiency of 0.800 ppp on its 40 first chance possessions and 1.100 for its 10 second chance possessions. UK had 0.974 ppp on its 39 first chance possessions and 2.000 ppp on its only second chance possessions. =

The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was 12-17[70.6%] and Memphis was a 5-7[71.4%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 12-22 overall [54.5%] and a strong 4-7 from long range [57.1%]. For Memphis , their field goal shooting overall was a not as strong, 16-35 [45.7%] and a good 6-14 [42.9%] from long range. UK committed 10 turnovers in the half, one for every 4.0 possessions and Memphis committed 12 turnovers for the half, one for every 4.2 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 85 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 45 points, while Memphis needs 42 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 80 possessions for the game for UK and 100 possessions for Memphis . Memphis scored its 85 th point of the game on a basket with about 3 minutes to play in the game..

Second Half Summary:

In the second half, Memphis opens by hitting 2 out their first 3 three point attempts to expand their halftime lead from 3 points to 7 points, 49-42, forcing a quick Kentucky timeout with 17:30 to play in the game. For once Majerus spoke wisely, Memphis has gotten UK to run, which is the pace Memphis wants, but not good for UK . The pace is very fast, and while UK got a couple of offensive boards that segment, they did not convert either time, once with a follow up miss and the second time with a turnover, Memphis leads by 9 at the 14:24 mark, 59-50.

Out of the timeout, Memphis scored the next 14 points to expand the lead to 23, 73-50 at the 11:38 TV timeout. At point of the game, Memphis had raced up and down the court for a total of 66 possessions, on route for about 92 possessions for the game had they continued that pace. However, over the last 11:38 , Memphis only took 20 more possessions to close out the victory, 80-63.

Memphis won the rebounding battles during the game, 38-27. In the process, Memphis also controlled the offensive boards in the game, 11-5, for a +6 margin. Kentucky converted its 5 second chance opportunities into only 4 second chance points whereas Memphis used its 11 second chance opportunities to post 11 second chance points.

Memphis had an offensive efficiency of 0.920 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.831 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and only 0.800 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions. For the second game in a row, Kentucky was defeated on the boards.

UK grabbed only 15.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Memphis was able to convert 33.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot the ball well from the free throw line tonight, converting 14-20 [70.0%] Memphis was not effective from the free throw line tonight making 7-12 [58.3%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 21-48 overall [43.8%] and 7-17 [41.2%] from long range. For Memphis , their field goal shooting overall was 32-63 [50.8%] and a strong 42.9% from long range, 9-21.

Kentucky committed 18 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.2 possessions. Memphis committed 17 turnover, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.1 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: It is becoming clear that Tubby Smith teams do not dictate pace, but yield to the pace selected by its opponents. Tonight, it is clear that Memphis plays at a very fast pace, averaging 97 possessions per game as compared to UK 's current average of 77 possessions per game. I anticipate a pace today in the upper 80s to low 90s. Memphis had 86 possessions on the game to UK 's 76 possessions.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Based on the prior performances by these teams this season, I anticipate that Memphis will produce a NGE for this game in their favor, about 0.120 ppp. If the final NGE is in Memphis ' favor and exceed 0.2 ppp, this will be further indication of trouble ahead for the UK team this season. On the other hand, a NGE for this game of less than 0.050 ppp could provide reason for hope ahead. Memphis posted a NGE for the game of 0.101 ppp.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Thus far this year, rebounding has been an apparent weakness for this UK team, and offensive rebounding has been difficult for this thin and weak front line. Therefore, it will be a positive outcome for UK to produce an offensive rebounding advantage in this game, even +1 would be positive. Memphis won the battle of the offensive rebounds, +6 on the game.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and “C” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On November 28, 2006 , UK will play its sixth regular season game against College of Charleston at Rupp.   Based on Charleston's first 5 games, 3-2, and UK's first 5 games, also 3-2, I predict an 18 point UK victory.  The projected box score follows:

NGE Method Prediction including SOS Factoring
Including Adjustments for Strength of Schedule and Venue
  Statistical Measure   Kentucky Charleston
  Points
Percents
78
60
Percents
  FGM
43.5%
28
20
39.3%
  FGA
44.4%
63
47
42.6%
  3PTM
9
8
  3PTA
46.5%
20
16
48.7%
  FTM
13
12
  FTA
73.4%
18
18
65.6%
  TO
6
24
  REB
31
33
  Possessions
78
80
  PPP
1.003
0.748
  POWER OF GAME
134.1%
74.6%

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

 


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