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BASKETBALL

2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

11
Kentucky Plays First Game Off a Loss
Confronts Memphis in Maui for Third Place

Pre-Game Analysis:

As if it is not bad enough that the Kentucky basketball program enters the Thanksgiving season on the heels of another recruiting campaign that has again left them thinking of left overs instead of main courses. Now the UK basketball team must suffer the indignity of a trip to Paradise where they sustained two losses in three games on the eve of Thanksgiving. UK lost is first game of the season, 73-68 to UCLA on Tuesday night and followed that loss with an embarrassing thumping at the hands of Memphis , 80-63 on Wednesday.

Many fans and observers seems to find comfort in the 5 point margin to a UCLA team coming off a final four appearance last season and the beneficiary of lofty rankings this season. However, the closeness of that game had much more to do with UCLA being off its stride [2 for 19 from three point, and about 50% of its free throws] than anything that UK did either offensively or defensively in that game.

When that loss is compounded by the sound beating that Memphis handed the Cats on Wednesday. Memphis overpowered UK inside the paint, owned the boards, both in terms of total rebounds and offensive rebounds, and shot well from outside the arc, a feat that UCLA had failed to accomplish against UK the night before. The Memphis game was close at halftime, and UK scored the first 2 points of the second half to cut the Memphis lead to only one point, 43-42. However, Memphis seized control of the game with a 30-8 run, and all that remained to be determined was the final score over the last 8 minutes of the game.

As a result of the Maui trip, many fans find little comfort about the start of this 2006-07 season. While the team remained in the Islands for their Thanksgiving feast, their trip home across the big pond could not have been a joyous one as the memories of these back to back losses reverberated in their collective psyche.

Kentucky has one more “breather” before the Cats must travel to Chapel Hill , North Carolina for their annual meeting with the Tar Heels next Saturday. On Tuesday night, the Cats will entertain the College of Charleston at Rupp Arena. Charleston brings a 3-2 records into Rupp Arena, having beaten UNC Wilmington at home today 91-68. No one should mistake this College of Charleston team for one that has competed in recent years in the NCAA tournament. This is not a NCAA quality version of their team. However, no one should presume that this team will be a cupcake either.

Let's put Charleston into a little perspective. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Charleston as the #145 ranked team. Miami of Ohio, a worthy opening game opponent now stands at #69 per Pomeroy and DePaul , UK 's only victim in Maui , currently stands at #126. Yes, it is early for these numbers to have great reliability, but it is not so early to gain a general quality indication from them. By comparison, UK currently holds a #58 rank, per Pomeroy.

Kentucky averages a about average 77 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged just under 80 possessions per game. Charleston currently averages 80 possessions per game while their opponents only 79 possessions. This means that Charleston is winning their offensive rebounding by about 1 per game while UK is on the short end, about -3 per game. Charleston 's offensive efficiency has been 0.885 ppp and 71 points per game. Charleston 's defensive efficiency has been 0.853 ppp while holding opponents to 67 ppg. Their early NGE is 0.032 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a stronger offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.922 ppp while scoring about 71 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency has not measured up to usual competitive standards and now stands at 0.842 ppp on about 67 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.080 ppp. According to published RPI data, Kentucky has the edge over Charleston on the strength of their respective early schedules.

In three games in Maui , UK 's defense allowed its opponents to score at will inside the paint. Yes, UCLA did struggle from long range and the line, but those were not the result of UK 's defensive prowess. Over all, the three Maui opponents scored 146 of their 234 points against UK in the paint, 62%. Other critical problems also emerged into the daylight. UK can't stop the baseline drive, does not rebound well, and has begun to stagnate in its half court offense.

As I have discussed with respect to UK's previous games this season, I am watching three key performance measures this early season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: The pace of play is nearly moot for this year's UK team as it has settled into about 77 possessions per game through the first 5 games. Yes, some of this is influenced by the slower pace preferred by at least 3 of UK's opponents [Miami, DePaul, and UCLA] but MVS and Memphis both prefer greater pace, and UK successfully slowed each of them down from their usual pace. Therefore, I expect a pace on Tuesday again in the upper 70's to near 80 possessions.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE is falling, and currently stands below 0.100 ppp, which is Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . However, the trend of declining NGE will abate for this game at least, and UK should control this game and earn a game NGE of between 0.2 and 0.3 ppp. Less than 0.2 ppp NGE for this game will signal continued difficulty and a game NGE greater than 0.3 ppp should signal some improvement by this team since its return from Maui .

•  Offensive Rebounding: This season, offensive rebounding has been an Achilles heel for the Cats, losing that battle by an average -3 per game. I forewarned of this deficiency immediately following the exhibition games when UK failed to exert any significant dominance on the boards against clearly weaker opponents. Just as predicted, the board work has become an early season problem Charleston has been holding its own on the offensive boards, and actually averaging a +1 through their first 5 games. For an indication of improved board work, I will look for UK to post at least a +2 advantage. Anything less than that will suggest more of the same.

Last season, Charleston posted a record of 15-11 and finished with a final RPI rank of #188 with a Strength of Schedule of 0.4542. At this early stage of this season, Charleston stands with a RPI rank of #203 with a SOS of 0.4441.

Based on this very limited early performance data for Charleston and UK to date, which includes five regular season games for each, I see UK as an eighteen point favorite in this game. The NGE Method predicts a 78-60 Kentucky win on about 78 to 80 possessions by Kentucky and Charleston respectively. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 1.003 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.748 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 70 points.

NGE Method Prediction including SOS Factoring
Including Adjustments for Strength of Schedule and Venue
  Statistical Measure   Kentucky Charleston
  Points
Percents
78
60
Percents
  FGM
43.5%
28
20
39.3%
  FGA
44.4%
63
47
42.6%
  3PTM
9
8
  3PTA
46.5%
20
16
48.7%
  FTM
13
12
  FTA
73.4%
18
18
65.6%
  TO
6
24
  REB
31
33
  Possessions
78
80
  PPP
1.003
0.748
  POWER OF GAME
134.1%
74.6%

First Half Summary:

Tubby decided to shake up his starting lineup for this game, moving Thomas in, and moving Stevenson out. Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris remain starters. This lineup is one of the most experienced for UK in recent years, two seniors, and three juniors.

Both teams started this game with no offensive effectiveness. UK missed its first 5 shots, and Charleston only made 2 of its first 7 shots, to limp to the bench with a 4-2 lead at the first TV timeout. Both teams continued their lethargic play in the second segment, for a 8-6 Charleston lead. During the third segment, Kentucky , primarily Stevenson, began to assert himself on the inside, and UK moved to its first lead of the game at the 7:40 mark. UK continues its streak of 15 straight points to convert their 3 point deficit at 8-11came to a 23-11 advantage, forcing a Charleston Timeout at the 5:20 mark. After this timeout, the teams exchanged turnovers to reach the under 4 timeout at the same score, UK leading by 12, 23-11. In the first 4 segments of this game, UK holds a 5-3 edge in the offensive rebounding battle, and a 7-0 advantage on second chance points. Both teams are committed too many turnovers, with Charleston having 10 and Kentucky 9 at the under 4 TO. The teams trade points in the final segment, and go to the locker room with UK holding to a 27-15 lead.

Charleston earned an offensive rebounding edge, 6-5 but Kentucky used its second chance possessions more effectively than did Charleston . Kentucky built a 7-4 lead in second chance points for the first half. Charleston built a nominal led total rebounding advantage as well, 21-20 in the first half.

Charleston had an offensive efficiency of only 0.305 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and a better, but still low 0.667 ppp for its 6 second chance possessions. UK had 0.541 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 1.400 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was 7-11[63.6%] and Charleston did not receive a single free throw attempt in the half. Field goal shooting for UK was a poor 10-27 overall [37.0%] and a non-existent 0-5 from long range [0.0%]. For Charleston , their field goal shooting overall was even worse, 7-30 [23.3%] and a pitiful 1-11 [9.1%] from long range. UK committed 10 turnovers in the half, one for every 4.2 possessions and Charleston committed 12 turnovers for the half, one for every 3.5 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 49 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 22 points, while Charleston needs 34 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 84 possessions for the game for UK and Charleston . Kentucky scored its 49 th point of the game on a Crawford free throw at the 10:59 mark and the score of 49-34.

Second Half Summary:

Despite the lift provided by Stevenson in terms of scoring and offensive rebounding in the first half, and despite the total absence of any substantive contribution by new starter Thomas in the first half, Tubby returns to his starting line up to begin the second half. Kentucky comes out of the half with a scoring streak to extend their 12 point halftime lead to 20 points, 39-19, but thereafter UK allows the play to get sloppy, allows Charleston to get a flurry of offensive rebound put backs, and at the under 12 time out, Charleston has whittled that 20 point lead back to 11 points, and the ball, 45-34.

Out of the timeout, Kentucky runs off 11 straight points, forcing a Charleston timeout at the 9:34 mark, and UK leading 56-34. These teams played out the final 12 minutes to determine the final score, but the outcome was really never in doubt from this point on, and the final score is 77-61.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 49-41. However, Charleston controlled the offensive boards in the game, 19-17, for a +2 margin. Kentucky converted its 17 second chance opportunities into 18 second chance points and Charleston used its 19 second chance opportunities to post 19 second chance points.

Charleston had an offensive efficiency of 0.539 ppp on its 78 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 19 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.766 ppp on its 77 first chance possessions and 1.059 ppp on its 17 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed an impressive 43.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Charleston was able to convert 37.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot the ball poorly from the free throw line tonight, converting 14-23 [60.9%] Charleston was not effective from the free throw line tonight making 9-15 [60.0%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 30-63 overall [47.6%] and 3-11 [27.3%] from long range. For Charleston , their field goal shooting overall was 23-72 [31.5%] and a strong 20.0% from long range, 6-30.

Kentucky committed 20 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.7 possessions. Charleston committed 18 turnover, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.4 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: The pace of play is nearly moot for this year's UK team as it has settled into about 77 possessions per game through the first 5 games. Yes, some of this is influenced by the slower pace preferred by at least 3 of UK's opponents [Miami, DePaul, and UCLA] but MVS and Charleston both prefer greater pace, and UK successfully slowed each of them down from their usual pace. Therefore, I expect a pace on Tuesday again in the upper 70's to near 80 possessions. Tonight's pace was torrid by recent UK standards, with UK getting 94 total possessions to Charleston 's 97 possessions. Could this be the emergence of more uptempo play that Tubby Smith has been promising. We shall see.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE is falling, and currently stands below 0.100 ppp, which is Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . However, the trend of declining NGE will abate for this game at least, and UK should control this game and earn a game NGE of between 0.2 and 0.3 ppp. Less than 0.2 ppp NGE for this game will signal continued difficulty and a game NGE greater than 0.3 ppp should signal some improvement by this team since its return from Maui . The NGE for this game ended at 0.l90 ppp.

•  Offensive Rebounding: This season, offensive rebounding has been an Achilles heel for the Cats, losing that battle by an average -3 per game. I forewarned of this deficiency immediately following the exhibition games when UK failed to exert any significant dominance on the boards against clearly weaker opponents. Just as predicted, the board work has become an early season problem Charleston has been holding its own on the offensive boards, and actually averaging a +1 through their first 5 games. For an indication of improved board work, I will look for UK to post at least a +2 advantage. Anything less than that will suggest more of the same. UK lost the offensive rebounding battles, -2 for the game.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and “B-” respectively as shown below:

UK-CHARLESTON GRADES

Next Game On Schedule:

On December 2, 2006 , UK will play its seventh regular season game against North Carolina at Chapel Hill .  As of Thursday, November 30, 2006, it appears that UNC will be a solid double digit favorite over the Cats on Saturday.  See the projected box score based on all season statistics for UNC and UK to date.

NGE Method Prediction including SOS Factoring
Including Adjustments for Strength of Schedule and Venue
  Statistical Measure
Kentucky
UNC
  Points
Percents
69
84
Percents
  FGM
44.2%
25
31
48.5%
  FGA
43.9%
57
67
46.3%
  3PTM
9
8
  3PTA
43.2%
21
19
40.8%
  FTM
10
14
  FTA
60.9%
16
22
64.1%
  TO
20
11
  REB
33
40
  Possessions
85
89
  PPP
0.8113
0.9433
0.1320
  POWER OF GAME
86.0%
116.3%

 

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

 


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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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