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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

12
Kentucky Plays First Road Game of Season
Travel to Chapel Hill to Play the Tar Heels

Pre-Game Analysis:

Kentucky returned from Maui stunned. The players and coaches are not sure what it all means, and the fans are shocked that their Cats were not at least able to win two of three games in the Maui Invitational. The concerns that Maui raised intensified interest in an otherwise throw away practice game against College of Charleston on Tuesday night. However, the Charleston game did little, if anything at all, to soothe and comfort the fan base with respect to this team's willingness to engage the opponent on the boards, and turnovers continue to plague this team to the very end of November.

Will December bring a new look for the Cats? Will the players be able and willing to hit the boards, and control them on both ends of the floor. Can this team reduce its current turnover rate. There questions assume a certain urgency because on Saturday, December 2, 2006, these Cats travel to Chapel Hill, North Carolina to take on the Tar Heels. This will be the first time that Kentucky players have faced a Roy Williams coached team since the game last year at Rupp in which Coach Williams put the lie to the notion that young teams can't play great basketball and win. That is exactly what UNC did to UK at Rupp last year.

While the players have not sustained further losses to Roy Williams since that day, UK Coach Tubby Smith can't make the same claim. Roy Williams has been handing it to Tubby Smith on almost a daily basis out on the recruiting trail, and on Saturday, Roy Williams will lead his young team to another victory over Tubby Smith.

UNC brings a 5-1 record into this game, with their only loss coming at the hands of Gonzaga, 82-74 in New York City . UNC has beaten Tennessee 101-87 also in New York , and on Wednesday they defeated Ohio State at home 98-89.

Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place UNC as the #10 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #55 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 20 point UNC win and assigns a probably of UNC winning this game at 93%.

Kentucky averages a about average 80 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged just under 83 possessions per game. UNC currently averages 95 possessions per game while their opponents only 91 possessions. This means that UNC is winning their offensive rebounding by about 4 per game while UK is on the short end, about -3 per game. UNC's offensive efficiency has been 0.968 ppp and 92 points per game. UNC's defensive efficiency has been 0.833 ppp while holding opponents to 76 ppg. Their early NGE is 0.135 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a weaker offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.901 ppp while scoring about 72 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.800 ppp on about 66 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.101 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.6046 for UNC and 0.5547 for UK .

The Maui experience exposed UK 's interior defensive weakness, as well as its difficulty on the boards and propensity towards turnovers. UNC has demonstrated strength with their interior game, their ability to control the boards, and turnovers. However, the early season has revealed some chinks in the UNC amour as well. The UNC defensive efficiency is high for a national contender, and higher than UK 's. UNC has had trouble defending the 3 when their opponents drive and kick to the open perimeter player, giving up 40.1% from long range.

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Kentucky is settling in to an average pace of just under 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. UNC has been racing this year, and Coach Williams has told his team he wants them to average 100 possessions per game. If they take his command seriously, they will want to step it up from their current 95 possessions per game pace. UNC wants to run. It is curious because Tubby Smith, and his mouth pieces in the press, have told us almost non-stop since early October that Tubby Smith wants to run. I guess Saturday, the entire world will find out whether Tubby's proclamations are sincere, or yet another prevarication to placate fans and players at the beginning of the year. If UNC has its way, this game will see 90 possessions or more. If Tubby Smith has his way, this game will be played in the 80 or less possession range.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE is falling, and currently stands at 0.101 ppp, which is Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The trend of declining NGE will continue following this game. Given the venue, and the early season relative strengths of these teams, UNC should post a Game NGE of about 0.12 ppp. If UK can keep the UNC game NGE advantage to 0.050 ppp or less, UK will have entered the Dean Dome and held their own. However, a UNC game NGE of 0.2 or more will be devastating to this UK team

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 6 games. UNC is strong in this part of the game, earning a +4 offensive rebounding advantage per game. UK must win the battle of the offensive boards to have any chance of competitiveness in this ball game.

Last season, UNC posted a record of 23-8 and finished in the NCAA round of 32 with a loss to George Mason, the eventual Final Four team from that region. UNC's final RPI rank is #12 with a Strength of Schedule of 0.5898. At this early stage of this season, Charleston stands with a RPI rank of #21 with a SOS of 0.6046.

Based on this early performance data for UNC and UK to date, which includes six regular season games for each, I see UNC as thirteen point favorite in this game. The NGE Method predicts a 84-69 UNC win with about 85 possessions for UK and 89 possessions for UNC. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.811 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.943 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 77 points.

For Kentucky , today is the first of three consecutive huge basketball Saturdays. Next Saturday, Kentucky host a strong Indiana team at Rupp, and the following Saturday, December 16, 2006, the Cats travel to Freedom Hall for their annual grudge match for Kentucky bragging rights against Pitino's Cardinals. Most observers around Central Kentucky are saying on radio that UK needs to win at least 2 of these 3 games.

First Half Summary:

Tubby decided to stay with the starting lineup for this game. Thomas, Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris remain starters. This lineup is one of the most experienced for UK in recent years, two seniors, and three juniors.

Kentucky started this game determined to own the boards, in the first 8 minutes of the game they did just that, earning a 14-3 edge in total rebounds and a 7-0 edge on the offensive boards. This would be one of the single most important turnarounds in this game to allow UK to hang close to UNC. However, it is unlikely that this UK team will maintain a +7 offensive rebounding edge for the game, much less expand that early advantage. As UNC asserts itself on the boards, the ability of UK to hang close will dimish.

At the under 12 TV timeout, UNC held to its slim early lead, 13-10. When the teams returned to the floor, UK unveiled a 2-3 zone, to slow down the pace, and UNC went to work on the boards, cutting the early UK offensive rebounding margin from 7-0 to 7-2, and the total rebounding margin from 14-3 to 16-9 by the under 8 TV Timeout. UNC expanded its early 3 point lead to 4, at 20-16.

In the abbreviated segment leading to the under 4 timeout, UNC continued to assert itself on the boards, getting 2 more offensive rebounds and 4 second chance points to extend the lead to 6 points, 24-18, and Morris committed a cheap foul to take the game into that timeout. The early pace has settled in to about 80 possessions after a more furious start. However, since UK began to use the 2-3 zone, UK had only 21 possessions in the last 12 minutes, and UNC had 26 possessions in the last 12 minutes.

Turnovers may the the emerging story of this game.

North Carolina fought back on the offensive boards over the last 12 minutes to pull their early 0-7 deficit to only a deficit even for offensive rebounding, 8-8. However, UNC used its offensive rebounds more effectively than Kentucky . Kentucky only managed 2 second chance points from its 8 offensive rebounds while UNC converted it 8 offensive boards into 5 second chance points. North Carolina also fought back from their early 3-14 deficit in total rebounds to be behind UK 8, 24-16 at the half

North Carolina had an offensive efficiency of only 0.758 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and a similar 0.750 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had 0.647 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and only 0.250 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was 2-4[50.0%] and North Carolina was only 4-8 [50.0%] in the half. Field goal shooting for UK was a poor 11-28 overall [39.3%] and a non-existent 0-9 from long range [0.0%]. For North Carolina , their field goal shooting overall was even worse, 12-34 [35.3%] and a poor 3-10 [30.0%] from long range. UK committed 12 turnovers in the half, one for every 3.5 possessions and North Carolina committed 3 turnovers for the half, one for every 13.7 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 59 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 35 points, while North Carolina needs 28 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 82 possessions for the game for UK and North Carolina . Kentucky scored its 59 th point of the game on a Ginyard free throw at the 6:37 mark and the score of 59-44.

Second Half Summary:

The second half opened with a small flurry by UK to cut the lead to 3 points, 33-30, but UNC responded and stretched the lead out to 8, 41-33 at the under 16 TV Timeout. Each team committed 1 turnover in the segment, and the offensive rebounding remains unchanged since the halftime break. Out of the timeout, UK again trimmed the lead to 6, 41-35, and UNC responded with 9 straight points to open up the game into double digits [12 points] for the first time in the game, prompting a Kentucky timeout at 13:01 in the game.

At the under 8 TV Timeout, UNC maintained that 12 point lead [56-44], for the first mini-game segment in which UNC did not expand its lead this game. With slightly more than 7 minutes to play, UNC has forced 19 UK turnovers compared to only 6 of their own. Randolph Morris has been carrying this UK team on his back at both ends of the floor, shutting Hansbrough down, and scoring 23 points thus far of his own.

There has been no quit in this Kentucky team today, and as this game approaches the under 4 timeout, UK makes some defensive stops and cuts the lead to only 9 points at 4:06 to play, 59-50. UNC controlled both the pace and the scoring down the pace to secure at 75-63 win.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 40-36. However, North Carolina controlled the offensive boards in the game, 15-10, for a +5 margin despite UK 's early dominance on the boards, and their 7-0 early edge in offensive rebounding. Kentucky converted its 10 second chance opportunities into 6 second chance points and North Carolina used its 15 second chance opportunities to post 15 second chance points.

North Carolina had an offensive efficiency of 0.833 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.792 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 0.600 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed an impressive 32.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while North Carolina was able to convert 33.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot the ball poorly from the free throw line tonight, converting 10-17 [58.8%] North Carolina was very effective from the free throw line tonight making 16-22 [72.7%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 25-52 overall [48.1%] and 3-14 [21/4%] from long range. For North Carolina , their field goal shooting overall was 25-67 [37.3%] and a strong 42.9% from long range, 9-21.

Kentucky committed 22 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 3.7 possessions. North Carolina committed 9 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 9.7 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Kentucky is settling in to an average pace of just under 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. UNC has been racing this year, and Coach Williams has told his team he wants them to average 100 possessions per game. If they take his command seriously, they will want to step it up from their current 95 possessions per game pace. UNC wants to run. It is curious because Tubby Smith, and his mouth pieces in the press, have told us almost non-stop since early October that Tubby Smith wants to run. I guess Saturday, the entire world will find out whether Tubby's proclamations are sincere, or yet another prevarication to placate fans and players at the beginning of the year. If UNC has its way, this game will see 90 possessions or more. If Tubby Smith has his way, this game will be played in the 80 or less possession range. Today, UNC had 87 possessions and Kentucky had 82 possessions.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE is falling, and currently stands at 0.101 ppp, which is Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The trend of declining NGE will continue following this game. Given the venue, and the early season relative strengths of these teams, UNC should post a Game NGE of about 0.12 ppp. If UK can keep the UNC game NGE advantage to 0.050 ppp or less, UK will have entered the Dean Dome and held their own. However, a UNC game NGE of 0.2 or more will be devastating to this UK team. The NGE today was 0.101 ppp in UNC's favor.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 6 games. UNC is strong in this part of the game, earning a +4 offensive rebounding advantage per game. UK must win the battle of the offensive boards to have any chance of competitiveness in this ball game. Today, UNC won the battle of the offensive boards, +5.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and “B-” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On December 5, 2006 , UK will play its eighth regular season game against Chattanoogo at Freedom Hall in Louisville.  The NGE analytical model produces the following predicted box score.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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