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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

13
Kentucky Gets Cupcake UT Chattoonga
Chance To Heal From Heels

Pre-Game Analysis:

On Saturday afternoon, the North Carolina basketball program send the University of Kentucky basketball program a huge message. The Kentucky Wildcats are irrelevant.

Absent from the proceedings at the Dean Dome was the electricity in the air that should accompany any meeting of the two winningest programs of all time. However, no such electricity was on the premises. The Tar Heel faithful literally worked on their Christmas knitting projects while the kids in shorts and sneakers made their way up and down the court.

Yes, the Tar Heels won the game, but the outcome of this game is really secondary to the lack of respect that the UNC coaches and players displayed toward the once elite, once proud University of Kentucky basketball program. It is clear that Tubby Smith's entire strategy was to slow down the game, shorten the game, make the game as ugly as possible to assure that the knitting continued while the game was being played, thus to minimize the final loss margin for the UK Wildcats.

In one respect, Tubby's strategy worked just as he had hoped for it to work. The pace was about 10 possessions slower than Roy Williams preferred, yet the pace even at that was still just a little faster than Tubby preferred. Tubby's strategy worked in that the Tar Heels only scored 75 points instead of the 92 they average. However, UK could not score more than 63 points, and the 12 point loss is just as much a loss as a 27 point repeat of last year's Kansas and Indiana games would have been a loss.

It is now clear that Tubby Smith never once considered that his UK team was capable of competing with the Tar Heels, nose to nose, head to head. His entire focus was not winning but avoiding a repeat of the embarrassing losses aforementioned from last season. However, in adopting this strategy, Tubby Smith exposed himself a public recognition that now the UK Basketball team is irrelevant when it comes to national championships, and maintaining elite status. The transformation from prominence to obscurity is now complete. The Tubbification of Kentucky Basketball is now complete.

A block of seats behind the Kentucky bench, full in the first half were conspicuously empty during the second half. An official explanation, e.g. UK football recruits at the game who left at halftime is beyond laughable. The internet based rumor that these seats had been occupied by UK booster who made the trip to Chapel Hill with the Cats left as a silent protest ranks higher on the believability scale.

Tubby Smith's failures have now been fully exposed.

CHATTANOOGA brings a 2-3 record into this game against D1 competition. CHATTANOOGA has beaten Prairie View A&M and Ball State while losing to East Tennessee State , Towson , and notably Florida 93-44. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place CHATTANOOGA as the #179 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #57 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 10 point Kentucky win over CHATTANOOGA and assigns a probably of CHATTANOOGA winning this game at 16%.

Kentucky averages a about average 80 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged just over 83 possessions per game. CHATTANOOGA currently averages 82 possessions per game while their opponents average 84 possessions. This means that like Kentucky , CHATTANOOGA is losing their offensive rebounding, UK by about 3 per game and CHATTANOOGA by about 2 per game. CHATTANOOGA 's offensive efficiency has been 0.776 ppp and 64 points per game. CHATTANOOGA 's defensive efficiency has been 0.812 ppp while holding opponents to 68 ppg. Their early NGE is -0.036 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a slightly stronger offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.881 ppp while scoring about 70.6 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.809 ppp on about 67 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.072 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.4505 for CHATTANOOGA and 0.5800 for UK .

The Tar Heels exposed the exact same Kentucky weaknesses as the teams in Maui exploited. UK 's continues to have difficulty on the boards and continues to commit turnovers at an ever increasing rate. CHATTANOOGA shares both of these weaknesses.

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Kentucky is settling in to an average pace of just under 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. CHATTANOOGA plays at about the same pace as UK , 82 to 84 possessions per game. In this game, it will be unusual if the pace is outside a range of 77 to 85 possessions for this game.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE is falling, and currently stands at 0.079 ppp, which is now significantly below Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The trend of declining NGE will continue following this game, but this game should bump it up a little. Given the venue, and the early season relative strengths of these teams, Kentucky should post a Game NGE of about 0.25 ppp. If UK can keep the post a game NGE of 0.350 ppp or higher, UK given a good accounting of itself against this cupcake. However, a Kentucky game NGE of 0.150 or less will be difficult for Tubby to reconcile with any argument of continuing improvement.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 7 games. However, CHATTANOOGA is no stronger in this part of the game, earning a -2 offensive rebounding deficit per game. UK should be able to win the battle of the offensive boards against this cupcake opponent.

Last season, CHATTANOOGA posted a record of 15-13 before falling to Davidson in the Southern Conference Tournament. CHATTANOOGA 's final RPI rank is #169 with a Strength of Schedule of 0.4764. At this early stage of this season, CHATTANOOGA stands with a RPI rank of #212 with a SOS of 0.4505.

Based on this early performance data for CHATTANOOGA and UK to date, which includes seven regular season games for UK and 5 regular season games for CHATTANOOGA , I see Kentucky as sixteen point favorite in this game. The NGE Method predicts a 75-59 Kentucky win with about 82 possessions for UK and 83 possessions for CHATTANOOGA . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.920 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.717 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 68 points.

NGE Method Prediction including SOS Factoring
Including Adjustments for Strength of Schedule and Venue
  Statistical Measure
Kentucky
Chattanoogo
  Points
Percents
75
59
Percents
  FGM
44.9%
27
20
40.2%
  FGA
42.9%
63
49
40.8%
  3PTM
9
7
  3PTA
39.5%
24
18
41.9%
  FTM
12
12
  FTA
66.6%
18
19
62.7%
  TO
10
24
  REB
36
36
  Possessions
82
83
  PPP
0.9197
0.7167
  POWER OF GAME
128.3%
77.9%

For Kentucky , CHATTANOOGA is a cupcake game sandwiched between two huge annual rivalry games, UNC and Indiana. For elite programs, that set their sights on March and April from the end of each prior season, games against teams that also play on a national stage are the marquee events. The remainder of the games are cupcake fillers, to assure that ballyhooed 20 win season. For the true elite, games like this one against Chattanooga are not relevant to the long term goals that elite programs use to measure their work.

However, as the Tar Heels have demonstrated to the UK faithful, UK is no longer among the elites. UK is now one of those irrelevants. Does that make this UK match up with CHATTANOOGA more important?

You bet it does.

First Half Summary:

Tubby decided to try another starting lineup for this game, his third starting combo in the first 8 games. Tonight Jasper will start at the point, and join Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three guard configuration with the hopes of fewer turnovers. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.

Kentucky started the game like a gun ablaze hitting 6 of their first 9 shots to race out to a 12-5 lead at the under 16 TV timeout. However, over the next 8 minutes, UK's shooting normalized to under 50%, and UTC began to make shots to cut the lead to 1 point twice, last at 19-18, before UK ran off 5 straight points leading into the under 8 TV timeout. The turnovers continue to be a problem for the Cats, and UTC leads in offensive rebounding early in this game.

Kentucky then found their collective shooting touch over the last 8 minutes of the first half to take control of the game, with a 45-30 halftime lead.

Turnovers continue to plague this team, with 9 at halftime.

Kentucky won the overall battle of the boards in the first half, 22-19, but UTC won the battle of the offensive boards, 8-5. However, UK used its offensive rebounds more effectively than UTC. Kentucky managed 8 second chance points from its 5 offensive rebounds while UTC converted it 8 offensive boards into 7 second chance points.

UTC had an offensive efficiency of only 0.590 ppp on its 38 first chance possessions and 0.875 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had 0.949 ppp on its 38 first chance possessions and an overpowering 1.600 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was 2-2[100.0%] and UTC was only 3-6 [50.0%] in the half. Field goal shooting for UK was a strong 18-34 overall [52.9%] and an impressive 7-16 from long range [43.8%]. For UTC, their field goal shooting overall was poor, 11-36 [30.6%] and a poor 5-20 [25.0%] from long range. UK committed 9 turnovers in the half, one for every 4.9 possessions and UTC committed 8 turnovers for the half, one for every 5.9 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 83rd point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 38 points, while UTC needs 53 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 86 possessions for the game for UK and 92 possessions for UTC. Kentucky scored its 83 rd point of the game on a Ginyard free throw at the 6:37 mark and the score of 59-44.

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky opened the second half by hitting their first two shots, a drive by Bradley and a three by Crawford while UTC missed their first two shots, forcing an early second half UTC timeout with just under 19 minutes to play in the game and Kentucky holding to its largest lead, 50-30. However, this surge continued to the first TV timeout, at the 14 minute mark with UK leading 63-36. However, there was no quit in the UTC team and they fought back to cut the lead to only 9 points before UK secured the victory with a final score of 79-63, a 16 point win.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 44-34. However, UTC controlled the offensive boards in the game, 15-10, for a +5 margin. Kentucky converted its 10 second chance opportunities into 10 second chance points and UTC used its 15 second chance opportunities to post 10 second chance points.

UTC had an offensive efficiency of 0.700 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.945 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed an impressive 34.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while UTC was able to convert 30.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot the ball poorly from the free throw line tonight, converting 6-13 [46.2%] UTC was a little more effective from the free throw line tonight making 12-20 [60.0%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 30-57 overall [52.6%] and an outstanding 13-26 [50.0%] from long range. For UTC, their field goal shooting overall was 20-67 [29.9%] and a weak 30.6% from long range, 11-36.

Kentucky committed 20 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.1 possessions. UTC committed 14 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.5 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Kentucky is settling in to an average pace of just under 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. CHATTANOOGA plays at about the same pace as UK , 82 to 84 possessions per game. In this game, it will be unusual if the pace is outside a range of 77 to 85 possessions for this game. For the game, UK had 83 possessions, and UTC 90 possessions.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE is falling, and currently stands at 0.079 ppp, which is now significantly below Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The trend of declining NGE will continue following this game, but this game should bump it up a little. Given the venue, and the early season relative strengths of these teams, Kentucky should post a Game NGE of about 0.25 ppp. If UK can keep the post a game NGE of 0.350 ppp or higher, UK given a good accounting of itself against this cupcake. However, a Kentucky game NGE of 0.150 or less will be difficult for Tubby to reconcile with any argument of continuing improvement. The game NGE was 0.263 ppp.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 7 games. However, CHATTANOOGA is no stronger in this part of the game, earning a -2 offensive rebounding deficit per game. UK should be able to win the battle of the offensive boards against this cupcake opponent. UK lost the offensive rebounding battle again tonight, 15-10, -5.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and “C” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On December 9, 2006 , UK will play its ninth regular season game against Indiana at Rupp Arena.

NGE Method Prediction including SOS Factoring
Including Adjustments for Strength of Schedule and Venue
  Statistical Measure
Kentucky
Indiana
  Points
Percents
67.3
69.0
Percents
  FGM
39.6%
23
25
45.3%
  FGA
41.1%
56
58
43.1%
  3PTM
8
8
  3PTA
44.0%
19
20
39.1%
  FTM
13
11
  FTA
63.6%
20
18
62.8%
  TO
14
17
  REB
33
37
  Possessions
80
84
  PPP
0.8407
0.8213
  POWER OF GAME
102.4%
97.7%

 

These NGE analyses are dynamic and change day to day
prior to the game as the available database
expands with additional play. 
Indiana will play once more on Wednesday December 6, 2006.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

 


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