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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

16
Kentucky Returns to Rupp To Finish
Non-Conference Schedule:
First Up; Santa Clara

Pre-Game Analysis:

On Saturday afternoon, UK defeated In-State rival Louisville by 12, 61-49 in Louisville 's Freedom Hall. This completes the trifecta of traditional rival games, with UK improving over last year's performance, claiming two victories from the three games. Make no mistake that any wins over Louisville and Indiana are greeted warmly by all UK fans, because these wins deliver state and regional bragging rights to the Cats for another full year. However, any UK fan that is exhilarated by either of these wins is wearing blinders and is ignoring significant structural deficiencies that both IU and UL exploited, albeit unsuccessfully.

Kentucky did reduce its turnover rate in its game against Louisville , but the offensive rebounding woes continued and provided Louisville 11 more looks at the basket than UK had during the game. In most cases, a team that gets that many more looks at the basket than their opponent will win. However, like Indiana the week before, Louisville could not throw the ball in the ocean all day long, shooting only 3 for 24 from outside the arc. This means that UL and IU together shot 7 for 49 from long range in their respective games against UK .

As a result of these two important victories, UK finished the first 1/3 of its season 7-3, which frankly is better than this writer expected prior to the season's beginning, as well as recently as just 14 days ago, when I boldly forecast two losses for the Cats in these games. However, make no mistake, the rebounding woes, ball handling woes, and perimeter defense woes that formed the basis for the negative predictions still exist and unless, and if I were to make similar predictions today for repeat games against either IU or UL, the numbers would probably still indicate Kentucky losses.

Santa Clara brings a 7-3 record against D1 opposition into this game, with losses to California on the road [#40], Nevada at home [#54], and Missouri State on the road [#35]. Santa Clara has a road win over Stanford [62-46].

Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Santa Clara as the #62 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #40 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 7-point Kentucky win over Santa Clara [67-60] at Rupp, estimating the probability of a ntucky win at 80%.

Kentucky averages just under 80 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged just under 85 possessions per game. Santa Clara currently averages 81 possessions per game while their opponents average just under 77 possessions. This means that unlike Kentucky , Santa Clara has been holding its own on the offensive rebounding battles [+4] while UK continues to struggle and is losing this battle by about 5 per game. With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 4.8 possessions, and Santa Clara averages one turnover for each 5.3 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.2 opponent possessions while Santa Clara forces one turnover for each 5.4 opponent possessions. Santa Clara 's offensive efficiency has been 0.842 ppp and 68 points per game. Santa Clara 's defensive efficiency has been 0.806 ppp while holding opponents to 62 ppg. Their early NGE is 0.035 ppp.

Kentucky has posted better offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.871 ppp while scoring about 69 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.753 ppp on about 64 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.118 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5240 for Santa Clara and 0.5976 for UK .

Each Kentucky opponent except MVS has exposed the exact same Kentucky weaknesses. UK 's continues to have difficulty on the offensive boards and despite only 13 turnovers against UL on Saturday, UK has committed turnovers at an alarming rate this season. Santa Clara stands to expose at least the offensive rebounding problems, if not the turnover issues.

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of under 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 85 possessions per game. Santa Clara has been playing at a slightly faster pace, 81 possessions per game while limiting their opponents to about 77 possessions per game. In this game, it will be unusual if the pace is outside a range of 78 to 83 possessions for this game.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.118 ppp, which is slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.300 ppp tonight would signal improvement in the struggling UK offense while a game NGE of less than 0.150 will signal continued difficulty on the offensive end.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -5 through the first 10 games. Santa Clara has held its own on the offensive board work thus far, and controlled the offensive boards against its opponents, +4. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Santa Clara securing about 5 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game.

Santa Clara posted a record of 11-16 record last season through the West Coast Conference Tournament when they lost to St. Mary's by 4 points in overtime. Santa Clara 's final RPI rank was #184 with a Strength of Schedule of 0.5103. At this early stage of this season, Santa Clara stands with a RPI rank of #69 with a SOS of 0.5240.

Based on this early performance data for Santa Clara and UK to date, which includes ten regular season games for UK and 11 regular season games [10 v D1 opposition] for Santa Clara, Kentucky is a significant 17 point favorite, 75-58 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 78 possessions for UK and 83 possessions for Santa Clara . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.960 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.685 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 67 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby stuck with his most recent starting lineup for this game, his third starting combo in the first 10 games. Tonight Jasper will start at the point, and join Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three guard configuration with the hopes of fewer turnovers. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.

Kentucky won the opening tip, but Santa Clara took the early lead, building it to 9-3 before the Cats began to make some shots and catch up at 14. The teams then traded baskets to the end of the under 4 TV timeout of the first half, and Kentucky clinging to a 26-23 lead over Santa Clara . Randolph Morris has 11 of UK 's 26 points, and Tubby inserted Ramon Harris into the lineup for about 1 minute, eliminating any possible red shirt year for Harris.

Kentucky outscored Santa Clara to extend the lead to 7 points, 30-23, but Santa Clara closed with 5 straight to got to the locker room trailing by only 2 points, 30-28.

Kentucky won the overall battle of the boards in the first half, 21-20, and the teams fought evenly on the battle of the offensive boards, 7-7. However, Santa Clara used its offensive rebounds more effectively than Kentucky . Kentucky managed 3 second chance points from its 7 offensive rebounds while Santa Clara converted it 7 offensive boards into only 8 second chance points.

Santa Clara had an offensive efficiency of only 0.588 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 1.143 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 0.771 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.429 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was good at 3-4 [75.0%], but entirely too few chances, suggesting a less than aggressive offensive approach. Santa Clara was only 5-7[71.4%] in the half. Field goal shooting for UK was a 13-33 overall [39.4%] and a poor 1-8 from long range [12.5%]. For Santa Clara , their field goal shooting overall was poor, 10-32 [31.3%] and a poor 3-12 [25.0%] from long range. UK committed 7 turnovers in the half, one for every 6.0 possessions and Santa Clara committed 7 turnovers for the half, one for every 6.8 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 60 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 30 points, while Santa Clara needs 32 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 84 possessions for the game for UK and 82 possessions for Santa Clara . Kentucky scored its 60 th point of the game on Jasper free throw to complete an old fashioned three point play with 6:24 left in the game. This gave UK its first double digit lead of the game, 60-49. The Cats finished the last 6 ½ minutes by closing the deal on a 14 point victory, 74-60.

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky opened the second half by extending their 3 point half time lead to 8, 38-30. Santa Clara cut that back to 4 points before the under 16 break, with the Cats holding on to a 41-37 lead. Santa Clara closed to 1 point twice, but UK then stretched their tenuous lead back to 6 points at the under 12 TV timeout. The teams played even during the next segment, with UK holding to a 5 point lead, 54-49 at the under 8 TV timeout. UK broke the game open down the stretch, taking a double digit, and play out the game to secure a 14 point victory, 74-60.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 42-39. The teams battled evenly on the offensive boards, with each team securing 15 offensive rebounds. Kentucky converted its 15 second chance opportunities into 9 second chance points and Santa Clara used its 15 second chance opportunities to post an impressive 18 second chance points.

Santa Clara had an offensive efficiency of 0.591 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 1.200 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.890 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 0.600 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed an impressive 38.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Santa Clara was able to convert 35.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot better than its average from the free throw line tonight, converting 16-22 [72.7%] Santa Clara was a little less effective from the free throw line tonight making 9-15 [60.0%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 26-63 overall [41.3%] and a respectable 6-18 [33.3%] from long range. For Santa Clara , their field goal shooting overall was very poor throughout the game, 23-64 [35.9%] and an anemic 20.8% from long range, 5-24.

Kentucky committed 14 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.3 possessions. Santa Clara committed 15 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.7 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of under 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 85 possessions per game. Santa Clara has been playing at a slightly faster pace, 81 possessions per game while limiting their opponents to about 77 possessions per game. In this game, it will be unusual if the pace is outside a range of 78 to 83 possessions for this game. Tonight, UK has 88 total possessions to 86 possessions for Santa Clara .

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.118 ppp, which is slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.300 ppp tonight would signal improvement in the struggling UK offense while a game NGE of less than 0.150 will signal continued difficulty on the offensive end. The NGE for the game tonight was 0.153 ppp.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -5 through the first 10 games. Santa Clara has held its own on the offensive board work thus far, and controlled the offensive boards against its opponents, +4. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Santa Clara securing about 5 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game. UK held its own on the offensive boards, for the first time since Mississippi Valley State , UK was not out rebounded on the offensive boards, as both teams grabbed 15.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a rare “C” respectively as shown below: It is important to note that this is the second straight game in which UK's defense has graded an “A”.

Next Game On Schedule:

On December 22, 2006 , UK will play its twelveth regular season game against Massachusetts at Rupp Arena.

NGE Method Prediction including SOS Factoring
Including Adjustments for Strength of Schedule and Venue
  Statistical Measure
Kentucky
Umass
  Points
Percents
76.2
59.5
Percents
  FGM
40.9%
27
21
46.5%
  FGA
41.5%
65
49
42.9%
  3PTM
8
6
  3PTA
43.1%
19
16
35.1%
  FTM
14
12
  FTA
66.5%
21
21
58.4%
  TO
6
26
  REB
35
38
  Possessions
82
85
  PPP
0.9298
0.7003
  POWER OF GAME
132.8%
75.3%

 

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

 


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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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