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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

19
Kentucky Closes Book On Non-Conference Schedule
With Houston at Rupp

Pre-Game Analysis:

Late last summer, when the University of Kentucky basketball program announced this non-conference match-up with the Houston Cougars at Rupp Arena, many thought that Houston might be able to pose a legitimate threat to a weakened UK basketball team, even a Rupp Arena. However, now that the relative landscapes of UK and Houston basketball for the 2006-07 season have been revealed, it is doubtful that this Houston team will pose a legitimate threat to this Kentucky team,

Kentucky is riding a six (6) game winning streak since their 4-3 start that included 3 losses in four games to UCLA, Memphis , and UNC. The plum of this six game streak has been the back to back wins over IU by 5 at Rupp and UL by 12 at Freedom Hall on back to back Saturdays. Houston 's fortunes have been a mirror image. After a 4-1 start, the Cougars have lost five if their last six attempts. Houston 's most impressive win of this season is a 22-point win over Charlotte , 68-46 in Hawaii 4 days before Christmas.

Before conceding this game to the “W” column for the Cats, it is helpful to also recognize that this UK team has not been taking care of business against obviously inferior opponents this season. Case in point, Saturday's 13 point victory over a much inferior Eastern Kentucky at Rupp that saw EKU hanging tough, within 6 points of the Cats with about 4 minutes to play.

Nonetheless, the Cats are on a roll, having won 6 in a row, and unless UK does not show up on Wednesday night, they will extend that winning streak to 7 games when Houston comes to town. Then the SEC wars begin. Cat fans should enjoy this mid-season diet of cupcakes because once the Cats enter the heart of their SEC schedule, we all will learn about their ability to compete.

Houston brings a 5-6 record against D1 opposition into this game, with losses on the road to St. Louis by 3, Virginia Commonwealth by 18, and Arizona by 25. Houston , like the Cats did prior to Thanksgiving, lost two of three games in Hawaii prior to Christmas, to Creighton by 8 and Nebraska by 13. Last night, Houston lost at home for the first time this year to UNLV by 16. Among the five victories, the highest current RPI ranking of all Houston victims currently belongs to Charlotte [#196]. Through eleven games against D1 competition, Houston “boasts” a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5390 and a RPI ranking of #132.

Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Houston as the #115 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #25 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 19-point Kentucky win over Houston [87-68] at Rupp, estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 94%.

Kentucky averages 80.2 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 84.0 possessions per game. Houston currently averages 92.0 possessions per game while their opponents average 90.0 possessions. Unlike UK , Houston has been winning the offensive rebounding battles, +2 offensive rebounding surplus, which is smaller than UK 's -3.8 overall average.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.0 possessions, and Houston averages one turnover for each 7.1 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.1 opponent possessions while Houston forces one turnover for each 4.95 opponent possessions. Houston 's offensive efficiency has been 0.861 ppp and 79 points per game. Houston 's defensive efficiency has been 0.846 ppp while holding opponents to 76 ppg. Their early NGE is 0.014 ppp.

Kentucky has posted higher offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.889 ppp while scoring about 71 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.761 ppp on about 64 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.128 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5390 for Houston and 0.6304 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 84 possessions per game. Houston has been playing at a significantly faster pace, 92 possessions per game while limiting their opponents to about 90 possessions per game. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the mid to upper 80s, and again Tubby Smith will allow the opponent to dictate the pace.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.128 ppp, which is slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.350 ppp against Houston would signal improvement in the struggling UK offense while a game NGE of less than 0.200 ppp will signal continued difficulty on the offensive end.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3.8 through the first 13 games. Houston has done a better job on the offensive boards against its opponents, +2. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Houston securing about 3 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game.

Houston posted a record of 19-9 record last season losing to Memphis State by 14 in the second round of the Conference USA Tournament. Houston 's final RPI rank was #53 with a Strength of Schedule of 0.5320. At this early stage of this season, Houston stands with a RPI rank of #132 with a SOS of 0.5390.

Based on this performance data for Houston and UK to date, which includes thirteen regular season games for UK and eleven games for Houston, Kentucky is a significant 21 point favorite, 83-62 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 85 possessions for UK and 88 possessions for Houston . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.977 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.705 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 74 points.

Game Summary:

Due to prior commitments, I am unable to provide a report on the game action and can only provide this analysis of the statistics for this game.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 51-39. Kentucky also controlled the battle of the offensive boards, 16-14 on the game. Kentucky converted its 16 second chance opportunities into 11 second chance points and Houston used its 14 second chance opportunities to post only 13 second chance points.

Houston had an offensive efficiency of 0.781 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 0.929 ppp for its 14 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.917 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 0.688 ppp on its 16 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed strong 39.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Houston was able to convert 28.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well above its average from the free throw line tonight, converting 17-24 [70.8%] Houston was a little less effective from the free throw line tonight making 5-9 [55.6%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 26-66 overall [39.4%] and a poor 8-30 [26.7%] from long range. For Houston , their field goal shooting overall was fair throughout the game, 27-75 [36.0%] and a fair 32.4% from long range, 11-34.

Kentucky committed 10 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 8.8 possessions. Houston committed 8 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 10.9 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 84 possessions per game. Houston has been playing at a significantly faster pace, 92 possessions per game while limiting their opponents to about 90 possessions per game. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the mid to upper 80s, and again Tubby Smith will allow the opponent to dictate the pace. Tonight, UK had 88 possessions and Houston 87 possessions.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.128 ppp, which is slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.350 ppp against Houston would signal improvement in the struggling UK offense while a game NGE of less than 0.200 ppp will signal continued difficulty on the offensive end. The game NGE tonight was only 0.070 ppp for UK which is very low given the respective records of these two teams.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3.8 through the first 13 games. Houston has done a better job on the offensive boards against its opponents, +2. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Houston securing about 3 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game. For the game, UK won the offensive rebounding battles for only the third time this year, 16-14, +2.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a rare “D+” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On January 6, 2007 , UK will play its fifteenth regular season game and its first SEC game of the season against Mississippi in Oxford , MS .

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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