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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

20
Kentucky Opens 2007 SEC Season
At Ole Miss

Pre-Game Analysis:

The preliminaries are over, the cupcakes have been consumed, and play for keeps begins on Saturday night as Kentucky travels to Oxford , Mississippi to open SEC play. Many people expected Ole Miss to be yet another cupcake to satisfy this breed of Cats' appetite for the easy to chew variety of opponent. However, this is not your father's Ole Miss [Sorry Buick] as they have changed the engine, modified the exterior, and made some changes to the interior components.

Both teams bring 11-3 non-conference records into this SEC opener. These teams have played some common opponents along the way. Ole Miss's loses have all occurred on the road, at UConn by 18, at Memphis by 12, and at St. Louis by 3. On the “W” side of the Ole Miss ledger, their highest ranked opponent at this time [Pomeroy] has been #137 Illinois Chicago . Mississippi also claims victories over Mississippi Valley State [A UK opponent] by 23. UK lost to Memphis by 17 on a neutral court and only beat MVS by the same 23.

Kentucky is riding a seven (7) game winning streak since their 4-3 start that included 3 losses in four games to UCLA, Memphis , and UNC. The plum of this seven game streak has been the back to back wins over IU by 5 at Rupp and UL by 12 at Freedom Hall on back to back Saturdays. Ole Miss has had two 4 game win streaks this season, but has not lost two in a row, and Saturday, Ole Miss will be coming off its third loss of the season, a 3 point defeat at St. Louis . It is curious that Houston , UK 's last opponent at Rupp, also lost to St. Louis on the road by 3 points, and Houston remained tied with UK at Rupp with under 3 minutes to play.

Through fourteen games against D1 competition, Ole Miss “boasts” a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.4441 and a RPI ranking of #106.

Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Mississippi as the #100 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #29 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 8-point Kentucky win over Houston [76-68] at Oxford , estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 76%.

Kentucky averages 80.8 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 84.3 possessions per game. Mississippi currently averages 83.0 possessions per game while their opponents average 82.0 possessions. Unlike UK , Mississippi has been winning the offensive rebounding battles, +1 offensive rebounding surplus, which is better than UK 's -3.5 overall average.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.2 possessions, and Mississippi averages one turnover for each 6.7 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.3 opponent possessions while Mississippi forces one turnover for each 5.2 opponent possessions. Mississippi 's offensive efficiency has been 0.920 ppp and 76 points per game. Mississippi 's defensive efficiency has been 0.809 ppp while holding opponents to 66 ppg. Their early NGE is 0.111 ppp.

Kentucky has posted lower offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.888 ppp while scoring about 72 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.764 ppp on about 64 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.124 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.4441 for Mississippi and 0.6072 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 81 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 84 possessions per game. Houston has been playing at a slightly faster pace, 83 possessions per game while limiting their opponents to about 82 possessions per game. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the lower to mid 80s.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.124 ppp, which is slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.200 ppp against Ole Miss would signal improvement in the struggling UK offense while a game NGE of less than 0.050 ppp will signal continued difficulty on the offensive and defensive end.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3.8 through the first 13 games. Mississippi has done a better job on the offensive boards against its opponents, +1. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Mississippi securing about 2 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game.

Based on this performance data for Mississippi and UK to date, which includes fourteen regular season games for both teams, Kentucky is a 9 point favorite, 74-65 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 82 possessions for UK and 84 possessions for Mississippi . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.902 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.774 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.

This analysis is based on the same methods as I have applied all season. However, there has been a consistent tendency in the current NGE model to overstate the UK margin, specifically by understating the opponents' scoring potential. This shift in the model's prediction v actual results began after the UK-IU and UK-UL games. To read more about this shift and one possible explanation for it CLICK HERE.

Due to this apparent shift in the predictions noted above, I am also providing a new analysis, beginning with this game, using the efficiencies computed based upon the Pomeroy definition of a possession, e.g. the number of possessions based on my definition less the number of offensive rebounds. Based on this Pomeroy NGE analysis, UK is a slim 3 point favorite, 71-68. In this analysis, the number of possessions remain the same, but the UK efficiency drops to 0.866 ppp and Mississippi 's efficiency rises to 0.810 ppp. The pre-game Magic Number is 70 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby stuck with his most recent starting lineup for this game, his third starting combo in the first 10 games, and the same starting lineup for the last 5 games. Tonight Jasper will start at the point along with Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three-guard configuration. Since this starting lineup began, the UK turnover frequency has been improving. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.

Kentucky won the opening tip and turned the ball over. However, that was the only mistake UK committed during the first game segment as they parlayed their 7 possessions into 12 points with 3 out of 4 from 3 point range. Ole Miss did not open quite as hot, but is shooting the ball well to convert its 7 possessions into 8 points. Shooting moderated for both teams as the half played out, and Ole Miss turned the 8-3 advantage on turnovers into a 2 point halftime lead, 37-35.

Kentucky won the overall battle of the boards in the first half, 17-15, and Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards to Ole Miss 6-4.

Mississippi had an offensive efficiency of 1.063 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 0.500 ppp for its 6 second chance possessions. UK had 0.794 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 2.000 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was pitiful, 2-7 [28.6%]. Mississippi was 9-11[81.8%] in the half. Field goal shooting for UK was a 15-27 overall [55.6%] and a reasonable 3-8 from long range [37.5%]. For Mississippi , their field goal shooting overall was below average, 13-30 [43.2%] and a poor 2-8 [25.0%] from long range. UK committed 8 turnovers in the half, one for every 4.8 possessions and Mississippi committed 3 turnovers for the half, one for every 12.7 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 74 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 39 points, while Mississippi needs 37 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 68 possessions for the game for UK and 76 possessions for Mississippi . Neither team reached the 74 th point tonight, primarily due to the very slow pace of the game.

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky opened the second half much the same way they opened the game, shooting lights out, and regaining the lead. For the most part, UK controlled the game throughout the second half, building a lead in the first few minutes, and expanding that lead to 9 points, 64-55, at the under 4 TV timeout to prepare for the stretch. UK accomplished this with outstanding shooting, and some new found reduction in the number of turnovers in the second half.

The teams played out the final segment, with UK securing its eighth win in a row, 68-58 over Ole Miss. Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 32-29. However, Ole Miss. controlled the battle of the offensive boards, 11-6 on the game. Kentucky converted its 6 second chance opportunities into 6 second chance points and Mississippi used its 11 second chance opportunities to post only 8 second chance points.

Mississippi had an offensive efficiency of 0.807 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 0.727 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.000 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed weak 25.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Mississippi was able to convert 29.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well below its average from the free throw line tonight, converting 10-19 [52.6%] Mississippi was more effective from the free throw line tonight making 10-14 [71.4%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 25 -45 overall [55.6%] and a very strong 9-17 [47.1%] from long range. For Mississippi , their field goal shooting overall was poor throughout the game, 22-57 [38.6%] and a poor 23.5% from long range, 4-17.

Kentucky committed 14 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.9 possessions. Mississippi committed 9 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 8.1 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 81 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 84 possessions per game. Houston has been playing at a slightly faster pace, 83 possessions per game while limiting their opponents to about 82 possessions per game. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the lower to mid 80s. Tonight's game pace was very slow, with UK having a total of 68 possessions and Mississippi having 73 total possessions

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.124 ppp, which is slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.200 ppp against Ole Miss would signal improvement in the struggling UK offense while a game NGE of less than 0.050 ppp will signal continued difficulty on the offensive and defensive end. The NGE for this game was an impressive 0.2055 ppp.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3.8 through the first 13 games. Mississippi has done a better job on the offensive boards against its opponents, +1. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Mississippi securing about 2 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game. Mississippi won the battle of the offensive boards tonight 11-6, -5 for UK .

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B+” and a rare “D+” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On January 10, 2007 , UK will play its sixteenth regular season game and its second SEC game of the season against Auburn at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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