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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

22
Kentucky Enjoys Second Straight SEC Home Game
Against Mississippi State Bulldogs

Pre-Game Analysis:

The first week of the 2007 SEC season is now in the books, UK started a perfect 2-0 which includes a road win at Ole Miss one week ago. There have been few road wins in the first week of play, and Tennessee failed to get one when they visited the Commodores in Nashville on Wednesday night. Kentucky 's 2-0 start places the Cats at the top of the SEC standings with Florida. All other teams in the conference sustained at least one loss, and Ole Miss lost twice.

That second Ole Miss loss sets up tonight's match up for the Cats. Ole Miss sustained losses last week to UK and Mississippi State . Kentucky turned the trick by 10 points [68-58] in Oxford while Mississippi State handed it to Ole Miss by 10 points [77-67] in Starkville . While UK returned to Lexington where they defeated Auburn on Wednesday night, Mississippi State 's other SEC game was an eight point loss to the Volunteers in Knoxville [92-84].

Kentucky brings a 13-3 record into tonight's game against the 10-5 Bulldogs Other than Ole Miss, these teams have not played any common opponents along the way. Four of Mississippi State 's five loses have occurred on the road. Winthrop beat MSU by 11 points in Starkville , and MSU lost to Clemson by 3, George Mason by 4, Missouri by 8, and last week to Tennessee by 8. On the “W” side of the Bulldog ledger, their highest ranked opponent at this time [Pomeroy] has been #102 Miami of Florida, and MSU claimed an 18 point road win from the Hurricanes.

Kentucky is riding a nine (9) game winning streak since their 4-3 start that included 3 losses in four games to UCLA, Memphis , and UNC. The plum of this seven game streak has been the back-to-back wins over IU by 5 at Rupp and UL by 12 at Freedom Hall on back to back Saturdays. Mississippi State had a seven game win streak this season before losing three in a row.

Through fifteen games against D1 competition, Mississippi State “boasts” a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5397 and a RPI ranking of #73, which is the highest ranked opponent for the Cats since Santa Clara [RPI #68].

Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Mississippi as the #43 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #24 ranked team. This Pomeroy ranking makes MSU the highest ranked opponent for the Cats since Indiana . Pomeroy projects a 8-point Kentucky win over Mississippi State [73-65], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 79%.

Kentucky averages 80.2 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 84.1 possessions per game. Mississippi currently averages 84.0 possessions per game while their opponents average 84.0 possessions. Unlike UK , Mississippi State has been holding its own on the offensive rebounding battles, which is better than UK 's -3.9 overall average.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.1 possessions, and Mississippi State averages one turnover for each 5.3 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.4 opponent possessions while Mississippi State forces one turnover for each 6.3 opponent possessions. Mississippi State 's offensive efficiency has been 0.917 ppp and 77 points per game. Mississippi State 's defensive efficiency has been 0.765 ppp while holding opponents to 64 ppg. Their early NGE is 0.152 ppp.

Kentucky has posted lower offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.901 ppp while scoring about 72 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.755 ppp on about 64 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.146 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5397 for Mississippi State and 0.6192 for UK . When we compare these various performance measures for UK and MSU head to head, it is difficult to discern any real differences other than the RPI SOS values.

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 84 possessions per game. State has been playing at a slightly faster pace, 84 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the lower to mid 80s.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.146 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.250 ppp against State would signal continued improvement by the Cats, while a game NGE of less than 0.100 ppp will signal renewed difficulty as the strength of opponents increases.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3.9 through the first 16 games. Mississippi State has done a better job on the offensive boards against its opponents, breaking even on the season. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Mississippi securing about 2 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game.

Based on this performance data for Mississippi State and UK to date, which includes sixteen regular season games for Kentucky and fifteen for MSU, Kentucky is a 13 point favorite, 76-63 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 82 possessions for UK and 84 possessions for Mississippi State . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.927 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.750 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.

NGE Method Prediction including SOS Factoring
Including Adjustments for Strength of Schedule and Venue
  Statistical Measure
Kentucky
Miss St
  Points
Percents
76
63
Percents
  FGM
55.3%
28
25
47.4%
  FGA
48.3%
58
60
41.7%
  3PTM
7
7
  3PTA
35.0%
20
22
31.8%
  FTM
13
6
  FTA
68.4%
19
20
30.0%
  TO
14
14
  REB
11
37
36
14
  Possessions
82
84
  PPP
0.1768
0.9268
0.7500
  POWER OF GAME
123.6%
80.9%

First Half Summary:

Tubby stuck with his same starting lineup for this game, Jasper at the point along with Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three-guard configuration. Since this starting lineup began, the UK turnover frequency has been improving. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.

Mississippi State won the opening tip and turned the ball over. Kentucky established a small lead in the early moments of the game, but MSU responded and edged into the lead, at 11-10 on a three pointer from the corner. After stretching that lead to 6, 16-10, UK responded with a Porter three to end a 4 minute scoring drought, and added to that another 5 points by Crawford to regain the lead, 18-16 with about 7 to play in the first half. Then Perry tacked on yet another three, forcing Mississippi State to take a timeout with 6:14 to go, trailing 21-16.

MSU then responds with 5 points to bring the score to its fourth tie of the half, at 21 going to the under 4 minute TV timeout. The teams traded baskets to close the half with UK up by x points, 29-26.

Mississippi State won the overall battle of the boards in the first half, 20-14, and the Bulldogs won the battle of the offensive boards 6-0.

Mississippi State had an offensive efficiency of 0.636 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 0.833 ppp for its 6 second chance possessions. UK had 0.818 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and did not have a single second chance possession in the first half.

Neither team shot many free throws during the first half, UK was 1 for 2 [50.0%] and MSU did not have a single free throw opportunity. Field goal shooting for UK was a 10-26 overall [38.5%] and a strong 6-14 from long range [42.9%]. For Mississippi State , their field goal shooting overall was below average, 11-31 [35.5%] and a reasonable 4-11 [36.4%] from long range. UK committed 6 turnovers in the half, one for every 5.5 possessions and Mississippi State committed 8 turnovers for the half, one for every 4.9 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Due to the slow pace and low overall efficiencies in the first half, the first team to score its 54 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 27 points, while Mississippi State needs 28 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 66 possessions for the game for UK and 78 possessions for Mississippi State . Kentucky scored its the 54 th point tonight on a Morris basket with just under 4 minutes to play, to give UK a 55-53 lead going down the stretch. The teams played out the last game segment with UK securing its 10 th victory in a row, 64-60

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky opened the second half with a turnover on its first possession, but MSU was not able to capitalize on that mistake. UK outscored MSU 7-4 in this first game segment of the second half to expand their lead to 4 points, 34-30. The teams continued the slow pace and scoring pace in the second segment of the second half, with Kentucky clinging to a 1 point lead, 38-37 at the under 12 TV timeout.

UK has begun to get some offensive rebounds, and has cut the halftime deficit from -6 to -5. Kentucky continues to work the board more effectively, but at the under 8 TV timeout trail by 1 point, 46-45. UK came from 3 down, 50-47 to 2 up, 55-53 just prior to the under 4 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, UK stretched their lead to 4 points, and MSU cut it back to 2 points. A shot clock violation on the next trip provided MSU possession, an opportunity to tie or take the lead, and they used a timeout with 1:40 to play. MSU did tie the score, 57-57, on a second chance basket.

Kentucky took the ball into Morris to regain the lead, and on their next trip down, MSU committed a costly turnover, with 43 seconds to play, and trailing by 2 points, 59-57. Kentucky took the ball into Morris on the low post where he was fouled, and converted both free throws for a 4 point lead, 61-57 with 20 seconds to play. MSU answered with a 3 pointer from the left corner with 12 seconds to play. MSU fouls Bradley as soon as Kentucky gets the ball inbounds. Final Score, 64-60.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 37-36. However, Mississippi State . controlled the battle of the offensive boards, 12-10 on the game. Kentucky converted its 10 second chance opportunities into 11 second chance points and Mississippi State used its 12 second chance opportunities to post only 11 second chance points.

Mississippi State had an offensive efficiency of 0.754 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 0.918 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.803 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 1.100 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed weak 29.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Mississippi State was able to convert 30.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well above its average from the free throw line tonight, converting 10-19 [52.6%] Mississippi was more effective from the free throw line tonight making 15-19 [78.9%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 21 -58 overall [36.2%] and a weak 7-22 [31.8%] from long range. For Mississippi State, their field goal shooting overall was poor throughout the game, 25-63 [39.7%] and a strong 47.4% from long range, 9-19.

Kentucky committed 13 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 8.4 possessions. Mississippi State committed 9 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.9 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 84 possessions per game. State has been playing at a slightly faster pace, 84 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the lower to mid 80s. The pace of this game was more to Kentucky 's liking than MSU's, and UK had 76 possessions to MSU's 77 possessions.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.146 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.250 ppp against State would signal continued improvement by the Cats, while a game NGE of less than 0.100 ppp will signal renewed difficulty as the strength of opponents increases. The game NGE tonight was only 0.063 points per possession.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3.9 through the first 16 games. Mississippi State has done a better job on the offensive boards against its opponents, breaking even on the season. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Mississippi securing about 2 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game. MSU won the offensive rebounding battles tonight, +2.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a rare “C” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On January 16, 2007 , UK will play its eighteenth regular season game and its fourth SEC game of the season against South Carolina at Columbia .

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

 


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