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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings 23 Pre-Game Analysis: In the second week of this young SEC season, Kentucky and Florida stand alone at the top of the SEC, both undefeated at 3-0. That is where the similarities between these two SEC teams begins, and ends. Kentucky successfully traversed the bottom half of the SEC West, twice at Rupp and at lowly Ole Miss to earn its perfect start. Tonight, UK begins a two game swing against the bottom two teams of the SEC East, USC then Vanderbilt. Then we will all learn what this team is made of when they confront their last 11 games of this 2007 SEC season. Kentucky brings a 14-3, 3-0 record into tonight's game against the 10-5, 0-2 South Carolina Gamecocks These teams have played one common opponent along the way, the College of Charleston. South Carolina defeated C of C by 12 points, 67-55 while UK defeated C of C by 16, 77-61. Two of USC's five loses have occurred on the road, at Georgia by 24 and at UC Irvine by 15. The three home losses have been to #8 Clemson by 21, #20 Kansas by 16, and #29 Florida by 34. On the “W” side of the Gamecock ledger, their highest ranked opponent at this time has been #64 Southern California by 6 in overtime on the road. All ranking numbers presented above are the current RPI rankings, per Pomeroy. Kentucky is riding a ten (10) game winning streak since their 4-3 start that included 3 losses in four games to UCLA, Memphis , and UNC. The plum of this 10-game streak has been the back-to-back wins over IU by 5 at Rupp and UL by 12 at Freedom Hall on back to back Saturdays. USC had a six game win streak this season before losing the last three in a row to Kansas , Georgia , and Florida . Through fifteen games against D1 competition, USC “boasts” a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5489 and a RPI ranking of #73, which is very similar to the numbers that Mississippi State and UMass brought into Rupp, but UK must take on USC on the road. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place USC as the #129 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #21 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 11-point Kentucky win over USC [69-58], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 87%. Kentucky averages 79.9 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 83.7 possessions per game. USC and its opponents currently averages 74.0 possessions per game. Unlike UK , USC has been holding its own on the offensive rebounding battles, which is better than UK 's -3.8 overall average. With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.2 possessions, and South Carolina averages one turnover for each 6.3 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.4 opponent possessions while USC forces one turnover for each 6.1 opponent possessions. USC's offensive efficiency has been 0.871 ppp and 64 points per game. USC's defensive efficiency has been 0.852 ppp while holding opponents to 63 ppg. Their early NGE is 0.018 ppp. Kentucky has posted lower offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.898 ppp while scoring about 72 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.756 ppp on about 63 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.142 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5489 for South Carolina and 0.6200 for UK . I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential. The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 84 possessions per game. State has been playing at a slower pace, 74 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. USC is the slowest team in the SEC this season. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the mid to upper 70s range. Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.142 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.200 ppp against State would signal continued improvement by the Cats, while a game NGE of less than 0.060 ppp will signal renewed difficulty as the strength of opponents increases. Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3.8 through the first 17 games. South Carolina has done a better job on the offensive boards against its opponents, breaking even on the season. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with USC securing one more offensive rebound than the Cats for the game. Based on this performance data for South Carolina and UK to date, which includes seventeen regular season games and three SEC games for Kentucky and fifteen/three for USC, Kentucky is a 9 point favorite, 70-61 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 78 possessions for UK and 79 possessions for USC. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.903 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.772 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 67 points.
First Half Summary: Tubby stuck with his same starting lineup for this game, Jasper at the point along with Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three-guard configuration. Since this starting lineup began, the UK turnover frequency has been improving. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman. USC won the opening tip, but UK came out of the gates red hot, hitting its first 5 three point attempts, and 6 or its first 8 shots to race out to a 17-8 lead at the end of the second game segment. However, in the early going, they have been out rebounded on the offensive boards, and have committed 5 turnovers to 3 for USC. As shooting equalizes over the course of the game, these usual and customary Achilles heels could equalize the game. In the third game segment, the teams played even, each scoring 5 points. Through the first three game segments, the pace of the game is under 70 possessions for UK and about 80 possessions for USC on the strength of its early 5 to 1 offensive rebounding edge that has produced 3 of their 13 total points. The turnover margin is now UK with 6 to USC with 4. During the fourth segment, USC made a run, cutting UK's early 11 point lead to 5 points at 24-19, however, UK responded to the call with a run of their own leading to the under 4 TV timeout, 30-19. While UK started by hitting its 6 of its first 8 shots, and its first 5 threes in the first 8 minutes of the game, they hit 6 of their next 12, for a more humanly 50%, which coupled with continued turnovers and second chance points allowed this mini-run to occur. The pace is about 65 possessions for UK and about 80 possessions for USC. The teams traded baskets to close the half with UK up by 10 points, 37-27. Kentucky won the overall battle of the boards in the first half, 18-15, and the Gamecocks won the battle of the offensive boards 7-3 USC had an offensive efficiency of 0.800 ppp on its 30 first chance possessions and 0.429 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 1.138 ppp on its 29 first chance possessions and 1.333 ppp on its 3 second chance possessions. Neither team shot many free throws during the first half, UK was 3 for 5 [60.0%] and USC was 4-7 [57.1%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a 14-24 overall [58.3%] and a strong 6-11 from long range [54.5%]. For USC, their field goal shooting overall was below average, 10-30 [33.3%] and a weak 3-12 [25.0%] from long range. UK committed 6 turnovers in the half, one for every 5.3 possessions and USC committed 4 turnovers for the half, one for every 9.2 possessions. Halftime Magic Number Check-Up: MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 69 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 32 points, while USC needs 42 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 64 possessions for the game for UK and 74 possessions for USC. Kentucky scored its the 69 th point tonight on a Bradley three point basket with just under 6 minutes to play, to give UK a 70-43 lead going down the stretch. The teams played out the last 6 minutes of the game, and UK secured its 11 th victory in a row, 87-49. Second Half Summary: Kentucky opened the second half nearly as hot as they began the game, scoring on their first four trips across midcourt, making 4 of 6 shots and outscoring USC 9-3, forcing an quick USC timeout with 17:19 to play. However, USC responded to the timeout with another turnover, and UK expanded its 10 point halftime lead to 20 points, 53-33, at the under 16 TV timeout. At the under 8 TV timeout, UK's lead has grown to 24 points, 65-41, having outscored USC 28-14 in the second half on 13 for 21 shooting. At the same time, USC's second have shooting 4 of 18. The onslaught continues to the under 4 TV timeout with about 3:14 to play, and UK on the verge of its first true blowout victory of the 2006-07 season, 77 – 45. Final Score, 87-49. Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 38-28. However, USC controlled the battle of the offensive boards, 16-10 on the game. Kentucky converted its 10 second chance opportunities into 13 second chance points and USC used its 16 second chance opportunities to post only 6 second chance points. USC had an offensive efficiency of 0.682 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 0.375 ppp for its 16 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.175 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 1.300 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions. UK grabbed strong 45.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while USC was able to convert 36.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. UK shot above its average from the free throw line tonight, converting 7-10 [70.0%] USC was much less effective from the free throw line tonight making 12-22 [54.5%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a season high 62.5% [35-56] overall and an impressive 10-20 [50.0%] from long rangeUISC's field goal shooting overall was poor throughout the game, 15-56 [26.8%] and a poor 25.9% from long range, 7-27. Kentucky committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.1 possessions. USC also committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.6 possessions. Post Game Analysis: As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game. The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 84 possessions per game. State has been playing at a slower pace, 74 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. USC is the slowest team in the SEC this season. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the mid to upper 70s range. Tonight, UK had 73 total possessions and USC had 79 total possessions. Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.142 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.200 ppp against State would signal continued improvement by the Cats, while a game NGE of less than 0.060 ppp will signal renewed difficulty as the strength of opponents increases. Tonight's game NGE is an impressive 0.572, a very strong performance on both ends of the floor. Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3.8 through the first 17 games. South Carolina has done a better job on the offensive boards against its opponents, breaking even on the season. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with USC securing one more offensive rebound than the Cats for the game. USC won the battle of the offensive boards tonight, 16-10, but USC was unable to utilize those bonus opportunities. Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “A” and a rare “B+” respectively as shown below: Next Game On Schedule: On January 20, 2007 , UK will play its nineteenth regular season game and its fifth SEC game of the season against Vanderbilt at Rupp Arena. Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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