BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

38
Kentucky Opens NCAA Tournament Play Against Villanova
By
TheProfessor

Pre-Game Analysis:

This has been one of the strangest season in my memory. Kentucky finished the regular season 20-10, 4 th in the SEC Eastern Division. The Cats exited the SEC Tournament in the quarterfinals, a rare very early exit to be sure. The Cats did not play up tempo this year, finishing at under 80 possessions per game for the second year in a row despite Tubby's pre-season and season long assertions to the contrary. Kentucky averaged in the low 70s scoring again this year, a scoring rate that has become habitual under Tubby Smith despite his assurances early this season that he expected this team to average 85 to 90 points per game.

Now, we learn that as the Cats prepare to open NCAA play as an 8 seed for the second year in a row that the Cats view their loss to MSU in the SEC Tournament as a “win” and therefore the Cats think they are entering NCAA play on an up-tick. In addition, Tubby Smith himself has said that someone stole the MSU game, and that the entire 2007 season has been a successful one. He also reassures all members of the Big Blue Nation that now that this successful campaign is complete, the Cats can now “lighten up” in the NCAA tournament.

LIGHTEN UP!!!!!

Hello!!!! Tubby, this is Kentucky in case you are not able to read the name of the school that you work for. It is clear that Tubby Smith cares not for the rich history and tradition that this program has represented.

Nevertheless, the Cats have some business to attend to this evening, a little thing called a NCAA Tournament game against the 9 seeded Villanova Wildcats.

Entering post season play, Villanova has a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5954 and a RPI ranking of #19. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Villanova as the #20 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #16 ranked team.

Kentucky averages 79.8 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.7 possessions per game. Villanova currently averages 80.8 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 78.4 possessions per game. Villanova has been getting as more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents this season while UK stands at -1.9 per game. UK grabs 34.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Villanova grabs a well above average 39.2% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 33.3% of their misses as offensive rebounds while Villanova allows its opponents 31.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.4 possessions, and Villanova averages one turnover for each 5.8 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.2 opponent possessions while Villanova forces one turnover for each 4.9 opponent possessions. Villanova 's offensive efficiency has been 0.903 ppp and 72.9 points per game. Villanova 's defensive efficiency has been 0.823 ppp while holding opponents to 64.5 ppg. Their NGE is 0.080 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a higher offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.921 ppp while scoring about 73.5ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.825 ppp on about 67.4 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.096 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5954 for Villanova and 0.6204 for UK

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

1. The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. Villanova has been playing at a faster pace, 81-82 possessions per game for themselves while limiting their opponents to about 79 possessions per game. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low 80s range.
2. Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.104 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 12 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.150 ppp against Villanova today would be a strong Cat performance against the Tide, while a game NGE of less than -0.050 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Villanova.
3. Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -1.9 through the first 32 games. I expect Villanova will grab at least one more offensive rebounds in this game.

Based on this performance data for Villanova and UK to date, which includes thirty regular season games and two post season conference tournament games for each of them, Kentucky is a 3-point favorite, 71-68 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 80 possessions for UK and 81 possessions for Villanova . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.893 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.840 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby Smith wanted and intended to stay with his same starting lineup that he had used for most of the season. However, an unnamed assistant coach turned in the starting lineup to the official scorer as Dwight Perry instead of Bobby Perry, and by rule, had to start the 5 the assistant had submitted. As soon as Villanova won the opening tip, Kentucky committed a foul, and Tubby replaced Dwight with Bobby Perry as play began.

Kentucky and Villanova both opened the game red hot, as UK hit 4 of its first 5 shots and ‘Nova hit 3 of its first 4 and then 3 of the first 6 as these teams opened play at a 9-9 tie at the under 16 TV timeout. Out of the first break in the action, ‘Nova scored the next 5 points and maintained continued to hold a 3 point lead, 16-13 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the first 2 segments, Kentucky is shooting 50 percent while Villanova is shooting 54.5% including 4 of 5 from three point range. Kentucky is controlling the boards, and has committed 3 turnovers to Villanova's 2. The early pace is at about 70 to 75 level.

In the third segment, Villanova again extended their lead to 5 points, 18-13, but Kentucky scored a quick 5 points to tie the score, prompting a “Nova timeout with 8:31 to play in the first half. After a furious start shooting the ball by both teams, they have both found it more difficult to get the ball to go down, and shooting percentages have steadily fallen. With 8 ½ minutes left in the half, UK is not shooting 40% and ‘Nova 42.9%. Kentucky continues to dominate the boards, 14-6 overall, and 6-0 on the offensive boards.

Kentucky moved to the lead in the fourth mini-game of the night, leading by as much as 3 points twice, the last at 23-20. However, a ‘Nova put back basket and a UK turnover led to the under 4 TV timeout with UK clinging to a 1 point lead, 23-22. Kentucky continues do dominate the boards with a 9-3 advantage on the offensive boards, and have committed two more turnovers, 5-3.

The teams finished the half with Kentucky taking a 2 point lead, 30-28 to the locker room.

Kentucky has controlled the boards in this half, 23-10 in total rebounds, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards, 9-2 for +7 in the first half. The pace is about 74 possessions for UK and 62 possessions for Villanova

Villanova scored its 28 points on 31 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.903 ppp. Villanova had an offensive efficiency of 0.897 ppp on its 29 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 2 second chance possessions. UK had 0.889 ppp on its 27 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions. Kentucky had an overall efficiency of 0.833 ppp for the first half.

UK was 3 for 7 [42.9%] and Villanova was 3-4 [75.0%] from the free throw line in the first half. Field goal shooting for UK was a 12-27 overall [44.4%] and a weak 3-11 from long range [27.3%]. For Villanova , their field goal shooting overall was 10-26 [38.5%] and a very strong 5-10 [50.0%] from long range. UK committed 6 turnovers in the half, one for every 6.0 possessions and Villanova committed 3 turnovers for the half, one for every 10.3 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 60 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 30 points, while Villanova needs 32 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 74 possessions for the game for UK and 62 possessions for Villanova. Kentucky scored its 60 th point on a Thomas free throw with 2:01 to play in the game and Kentucky holding to a 60-54 lead. Kentucky played out the final m:ss minutes to secure the victory, 67-58.

Second Half Summary:

Villanova opens the second half with the first 6 points, but Kentucky responds with 7 straight of their own, and outscoring ‘Nova 10-2 after ‘Nova's fast start to take UK's biggest lead, 40-36 at the under 16 TV timeout with about 14 ½ to play in the game.

In the next segment of the game, Kentucky stretched its lead to its longest of the game, 7 points, 44-37 at the under 12 TV timeout. With about 11 minutes to go in the game, the pace remains about 74 possessions for Kentucky and 67 possessions for ‘Nova. Kentucky continues to dominate the boards, but has committed twice as many turnovers, 10-5 for the game. In this race to 60 points, Kentucky needs to score 16 points before ‘Nova can score 23 points.

Kentucky extended their lead to double digits for the first time at 49-39, and ‘Nova broke a long scoring drought with a three pointer to cut the lead to 7 points, 49-42 at the under 8 TV timeout. The race to 60 is 11 to 18 at this stage of the game. After ‘Nova cut the lead to 4 points, they could get no closer, and responded with 5 straight points to lead 59-50 at the under 4 TV timeout, with 3:08 to play. The teams played out the final 3 minutes as UK secured the win by 9 points, 67-58.

Kentucky dominated the boards for total rebounds, 37-30, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards, 10-9, +1. Kentucky converted its 10 second chance opportunities into 6 second chance points and Villanova used its 9 second chance opportunities to post 8 second chance points.

Villanova had an offensive efficiency of 0.794 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 0.889 ppp for its 9 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.807 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.000 ppp on its 61 first chance possessions and 0.600 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.944 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed an average 32.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Villanova was able to convert only a weak 25.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit an above average 22-31 for the game [71.0%] from the free throw line today while Villanova was only slightly more effective from the free throw line, making 15-20 [75.0%]. UK 's field goal shooting was very low for the game, shooting 20-44 [45.5%] overall and a very weak 5-19 [26.3%] from long range. Villanova's field goal shooting overall was about 32.7% [18-55], and a cool 7-21 [33.3%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 11 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.4 possessions. Villanova committed 8 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 9.1 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. Villanova has been playing at a faster pace, 81-82 possessions per game for themselves while limiting their opponents to about 79 possessions per game. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low 80s range. For the game, UK had 71 possessions and Villanova had 72 possessions

Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.104 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 12 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.150 ppp against Villanova today would be a strong Cat performance against the Tide, while a game NGE of less than -0.050 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Villanova. The game NGE was 0.138 ppp.

Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -1.9 through the first 32 games. I expect Villanova will grab at least one more offensive rebounds in this game. Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards, +1.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a rare “B-” respectively as shown below:

UK VILLANOVA@NCAA1 GRADES

[img]http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/1139/ukbb07novancaagradesfu9.jpg[/img]

Next Game:

The victory allows UK to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament where they will meet #1 seed Kansas on Sunday, March 18, 2007 . .

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Thirty-Nine

Go Back
To Installment Thirty Seven

Copyright 2007
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
All Rights Reserved