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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

12
Cats Travel to Bloomington Off Loss to UNC

Pre-Game Analysis:

Last Saturday, we learned that this Kentucky Wildcat team is not a ready for prime time act. The #1 North Carolina came into Rupp, and after playing even with the Cats for the first 4 to 6 minutes, the Tarheels moved into a lead that they eventually extended to 20 points [70-50]. UNC coasted to their second straight Rupp Arena victory. However, we also saw some signs of life in our Cats as they whittled that one time 20 point margin to only 9 points at the end, 86-77 by outscoring the Tarheels 27-16 down the stretch.

The Cats face an entirely new challenge this Saturday as they leave the friendly confines of Rupp Arena for the first time. Coach Gillispie will take his young and inexperienced team into Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana to take on the 7-1 Hoosiers. The Cats and Hoosiers are set for their annual grudge match, but this is the first time this war will be fought on IU's home court since 1991. Furthermore, the Cats will enter the game with a roster that had been depleted by injuries and now further depleted by the departure of Alex Legion from the squad this past Monday.

The is the second of three traditional wars. The Cats lost the first of the three last Saturday in Rupp to UNC, and the final chapter of the 2008 bragging rights wars will not occur until early January this season due to scheduling difficulties for the second straight year with the University of Louisville. You will recall that last year's annual IU matchup had been scheduled for the traditional Freedom Hall location until Louisville claimed a scheduling conflict would not allow the Cats and Hoosiers to use that venue as originally scheduled. That is why last year's IU war was at Rupp, and this Saturday's game is at Assembly Hall.

Last year, Indiana finished 21-11, losing to UCLA in the Second Round of the NCAA by 5 points. The IU RPI SOS for 2007 was 0.5593. Through 8 games this season, Indiana is 7-1, with its only loss coming to Xavier by 15 points on a neutral court. As this young season continues to emerge, the absolute values of current RPI rankings and RPI SOS values have little significance, but the reliability in these numbers is beginning to increase. After six games, the Cats are 4-2, with an RPI ranking of 164 and a RPI SOS value of 0.5217. Indiana on the other hand carries a current RPI ranking of #41 and a RPI SOS of 0.5365 for all games played.

Kentucky averages 80.9 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 82.5 possessions per game. IU currently averages 83.9 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 84.8 possessions per game. Indiana has been losing the offensive rebounding battles to its opponents by about 0.9 per game this season while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.6 per game. UK grabs 37.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while IU grabs an above average 35.6% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 35.9% of their misses as offensive rebounds while IU only allows its opponents only 30.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.0 possessions, and IU averages one turnover for each 5.6 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 4.8 opponent possessions while IU forces one turnover for each 5.4 opponent possessions. IU 's offensive efficiency has been 0.984 ppp and 82.5 points per game. IU 's defensive efficiency has been 0.793 ppp while holding opponents to 67.3 ppg. Their NGE is 0.191 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a lower offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.900 ppp while scoring about 72.8 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.709 ppp on about 58.5 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.191 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5217 for UK and 0.5365 for UNC .

Based on this performance data for UNC and UK to date, which includes six regular season games for UK and eight regular season games for Indiana, Kentucky is a 7-point undergod, 67-74 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 83 possessions for UK and 83 possessions for IU . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.807 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.892 ppp, for a game NGE of –0.088 ppp.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie starts Porter, Bradley, Crawford, Coury and Patterson.

The game begins with the Hoosiers making every shot but one they attempted in the first segment, while the Cats only connected on one of their six attempts. The Hoosiers used their perfect shooting to start with a 7-2 lead at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, IU began to miss shots and the Cats continued to miss shots, falling further behind, 11-5 at the under 12 TV timeout. The game has started on a pace of about 65 possessions, and neither team has grabbed an offensive rebound in the first 8 minutes. This trend essentially negates a huge IU advantage in the early going. The Cats are ice cold, hitting only 2 of 10 attempts from the floor. Each team has 3 early turnovers.

The third segments was a decisive victory for the Hoosiers, outscoring the Cats 12-8 as both teams improved their shooting from the field. However, the Cats missed three of four free throws including the front end of a one and one, and committed 2 turnovers in the segment, eliminating any opportunity to close the early deficit rather than seeing that deficit expand to 10 points, 23-13. Pace is now in the low 70s. The fourth segment extended about 1 ½ minutes past the 4 minute mark, and the Cats were able to cut the growing deficit to 8 points, 31-23 on the strength of a 6 point run from their largest deficit, at 31-17. The teams played out the final 2 ½ minutes of the first half with the Hoosiers protecting a 12 point lead, 37-25 at the half.

The first half pace was about 80 possessions for IU and 72 possessions for the Cats as the IU owned the offensive boards during the first half, gaining an additional 5 possessions in the half. Kentucky committed 11 turnovers in the first half, one for every 3.3 possessions. IU committed 5 turnovers, one for each 7.8 possessions. Kentucky shot the ball poorly during the first half, 9-21 [42.9%] overall and a very poor 1-6 [16.7%] from long range. IU shot the ball a little better for the half, 11-25 [44.0%] overall and 3-7 [42.9%] from beyond the arc.

IU scored its 37 points on 40 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.925 ppp. Kentucky scored its 25 points on 36 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.751 ppp.

In the first half, UK was 6-9 [66.7%] and IU was 12-20 [60.0%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 69 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 44 points, while IU needs 32 points. IU scored its 69 th point on a pair of free throws with about 3:32 to play in the game and the Hoosiers holding to a 68-47 lead. The teams played out the final 3:32 minutes with IU taking the 70-51 victory.

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky ended the first half with three players carrying 3 personal fouls, Bradley, Porter and Harris. During the first half, the Cats drew the whistle 13 times while IU was blown for fouls only 9 times, thus the broad disparity in free throw opportunities in the Hoosier's favor.

The Hoosiers come out for the second half ready to play basketball, but the Cats must have figured the first segment was simply a bye round, and IU outscored the Cats 9-0, to break open the game, 46-25 at the under 16 TV timeout. The pace remains low 70s for the Cats and about 80 possessions for the Hoosiers. In the second segment of the half, the Cats at least scored points, and stopped the bleeding that the Hoosiers inflicted in the first segment. The segment ended with IU leading by 18, 53-35.

The Cats and Hoosiers played on even terms in the third segment, and IU continues to lead by 20 points, 56-36. Going into the final 4 minutes, IU remains in total control, 66-47, and they finish out the game with a 19 point victory over the Cats, 70-51.

Kentucky lost the boards for total rebounds, 29-37, and Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards, 9-11, -2. Kentucky converted its 9 second chance opportunities into 6 second chance points and IU used its 11 second chance opportunities to post 13 second chance points.

IU scored its 70 points on 78 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.897 ppp. Kentucky scored its 51 points on 76 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.671 ppp. IU had an offensive efficiency of 0.851 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 1.182 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.672 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp on its 10-second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a pathetic 25.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while IU was able to convert an above average 35.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the free throw line, 9-16 for the game [56.3%]. However, IU made a living from the line for this game, making 22 of their 32 attempts [68.8%]. UK's field goal shooting was below average for the game, shooting 19-49 [38.8%] overall, and UK shot poorly from long range, making 4 of 16 attempts [25.0%]. IU's field goal shooting overall was about 46.8% [22-47], and a good 4-9 [44.4%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 19 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.0 possessions. IU committed 15 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.2 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky loss, 74-67 [70-51] in a game with 83 and 83 possessions [78 and 76]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.807 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0671 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.892 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.896 ppp.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D-” and a rare “C” respectively as shown below:

UK – IU GRADES

Next Game:

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Thirteen

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Cats Lose To North Carolina at Rupp

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