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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

02


10 Weeks Until Big Blue Madness
For 2008-09 Season

The long dreadful off season is about to end again. We have seen the signs of the return. First there is the traditional Camp Wildcat for the privilege of being first in line to get tickets for Big Blue Madness. There is the annual basketball team "Boot Camp." Then we celebrate the Madness. Of course, we hang on every word we can read or hear from the mouths of the UK coaches and players. Finally, there is the annual Blue-White game.

This last pre-cursor of an new season occurred on Saturday evening, November 1, 2008. For the record, the Blues beat the Whites 86-81, and between the two teams, 12 players logged 20 or more minutes of playing time. So now we all know it is time for basketball, and that means the first game against a real opponent, the first of two exhibition games.

The Cats invitied Missouri-St. Louis to participate in this annual ritual, the season's first exhibition game, and these teams will face off at Rupp Arena on Monday, November 3, 2008.

As noted at the beginning of recent basketball seasons, no one doubts which team will win these exhibition games. At issue in these games is an opportunity for the team to demonstrate its readiness for D1 oppositions. It should be clear that these exhibition games, first against Missouri-St. Louis, and the November 7, 2008 match up against Ouachita Baptist must be viewed through the proper prism, but when so viewed, they can provide some insight into the season that will follow. My experience has been that these games will provide a positive indication for the season when UK's offensive efficiency exceeds 1.100 ppp for the two games combined, and the UK defensive efficiency is less than 0.600 ppp for the two games. With respect to pace, the season average will be significantly slower than the pace of these games. If UK is serious this season about increasing the pace of play, that should emerge in these games as a pace in excess of 100 possessions per game for the pair of games.

On the basis of these “hoped for” results in the exhibition games, I “predict” a UK win over Misouri-St. Louis by a score of 104 – 52, with each team have 90 possessions.

Let the games begin.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie started Patterson, Stevenson, Meeks, Harris, and Porter four juniors and one sophomore.

The Cats starts with a fast pace, but poor shooting, but they overcame that poor shooting with great defense, and 4 offensive rebounds that produced 5 second chance points in building a 10-0 lead at the first TV timeout. In the second period, the Cats extended their early lead to 16-2, forcing a USML timeout with about 12 ½ minutes to go. Out of the timeout, the Cats hit 8 out of their next 10 shots from the floor, and 4 of 6 free throws to extend the lead to 36-11 at the under 8 TV timeout.

Through about 13 minutes of play, the pace is over 100 possessions for the game, with 54% shooting. The only blemish on this game so far has been the 1 for 8 shooting from outside the arc, but that will come with time.

No sooner said than done. Out of the timeout, Meeks and Harrellson hit back to back three pointers, and a quick 9-4 run forced UMSL to take another timeout with 4:50 to play in the first half. Out of this timeout, Meeks hit another three pointer, and the Cats extended their lead to 48-17 at the under 4 TV timeout of the first half. The Cats finished off the first half in much the same way as it played the first 16 minutes, as walk ons Slone and Krebs saw action in the last minute of play. The halftime score is 63-23.

The pace of the first half was 100 possessions for the Cats and 84 possessions for UMSL. In first half, UK had 50 possessions while USML had 42. The Cats owned the offensive boards, grabbing 8 offensive rebounds while allowing UMSL only 3 offensive rebounds. The Cats made much better use of its second chances than did UMSL, taking a 13-0 advantage in second chance points during the first half.

UMSL had an offensive efficiency of 0.590 ppp on its 39 first chance possessions and 0.000 for its 3 second chance possessions. UK had 1.190 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 1.625 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions. Kentucky controlled the boards, holding a 26-10 edge in total rebounds.

The free throw shooting in the first half was good for the Cats, 72.2% [13-18], and UMSL was perfect from the line, making 4-4 [100.0%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 22-35 overall [62.9%] and 6-14 [42.9%] from long range. For UMSL, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a dismal 8-21 [38.1%], and 1-9 from long range [11.1%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 107 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 44 points, while USML needs a whopping 84 points.

Kentucky scored its 107 th point on a Harrellson put back with about 4 minutes to play in the game.

Second Half Summary:

The second half begins with the Cats hitting 6 of their first 8 shots, including all three of their three point attempts, scoring 17 points on their first 9 possessions of the second half. The Cats continued to extend their lead, now 80-28 at the under 16 TV timeout. The play continued through the second half with the Cats maintaining their lead, at 95-39 at the under 8 TV timeout. The final score was 111-53.

UK scored its 111 points in a total of 99 possessions for the game, and UMSL scored its 53 points on a total of 85 possessions.

Kentucky dominated the boards, both defensive and offensive, with a rebounding edge, 58-23, and 24-7 on the offensive glass. The Cats used their second chance possessions with greater efficiency, winning the second chance points battle 26-4. UMSL had an offensive efficiency of 0.628 ppp on its 78 first chance possessions and 0.571 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 1.133 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 1.083 ppp on its 24 second chance possessions. Kentucky controlled the boards, 58-23 in total rebounds. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed an amazing 60.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while UMSL was only able to convert 17.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 19-26 [73.1%]. UMSL made 12-13 [92.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 40-73 overall [54.8%] and 12-29 from long range [41.4%]. For UMSL, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a poor 16-41 [39.0%] and from long range, UMSL hit 3-20 [15.0%].

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, UK's performance in these two exhibition games can provide an important glimpse into what may be in store for this team this season. The criteria I presented were:

• At least 1.100 ppp offensive efficiency for the two games combined. Tonight, the offensive efficiency was 1.121 ppp

• No more than 0.600 ppp defensive efficiency for the two games combined, and tonight the defensive efficiency was 0.624 ppp

• A Net Game Efficiency of at least 0.500 ppp for both games combined, and tonight the NGE was 0.498 ppp.

Next Game On Schedule:

Friday night, again at Rupp Arena, the Cats will take on Ouachita Baptist in the second, and last exhibition game of the 2008-09 season

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

 


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