07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2010-11 Season Analytical Writings

02
What Should UK Fans Expect
From Windsor and Western Ontario?

As the Kentucky Wildcats prepare to play a 3 game exhibition series in Windsor, Ontario, Canada, I find it helpful to assess the opponent to the extent that can be done. By making that assessment, I can provide a relative frame of reference against which to evaluate the actual game results and overall team performance. Before getting into the details, there are a some points that are important and relevant.

• Windsor and Western played a similar 3 game series one year ago against Ohio State. In their two games against Windsor, Ohio State won by 51 [90-39] and 42 [89-47]. In its game against Western Ontario, Ohio State won by 35 [103-68].

• The state of the reported team statistics for both teams for their 2009-10 season are sketchy at best, and I had to make certain assumptions, primarily about offensive rebounding rates, to perform the full analysis, and there is a major discrepancy in the reported number of games played during the season for Windsor.

• There is no way that I have to even guess at an equivalent strength of schedule for either of these teams. However, based on the 35 to 51 point defeats at the hand of a strong Ohio State team a year ago, and the team statistics I have been able to compile, it is my judgment that the strength of schedule played by each of these opponents has been about like that of typical UK exhibition opponents of recent years [Georgetown College, Pikeville College, Campbellsville, etc.]

Based on these conditions going into a completely unknown situation for the Cats, I anticipate that the Cats, even short handed as they are, should handle each of these teams with great ease.

WINDSOR:

Windsor had a winning regular season in 2009-10, and outscored their opponents 81.8 ppg to 73.0 ppg on an average of 77.6 possessions per game. In comparison, UK, last season, scored 79.3 ppg while allowing 64.8 ppg on about 71.4 possessions per game. Windsor played at a faster pace than the Cats. Windsor's offensive efficiency was 1.055 points per possession and their defensive efficiency was 0.941 ppp. The Cats ended the season with efficiencies of 1.110 ppp and 0.914 ppp at the offensive and defensive ends respectively. The biggest unknown in this analysis, as noted previously is Windsor's strength of schedule. Based on my stated assumption, the Cats should win this game by 28 points, 88-60 in a game played at a pace of about 74 possessions.

Game Summary:

Due to NCAA eligibility issues, Freshman Center Enes Kanter and JUCO transfer Eloy Vargas are not eligible for this exhibition tour in Windsor, Ontario, Canada. Kanter will be an almost certain starter once the NCAA clears his amateur status, and Vargas will provide this year's team depth in reserve in the front court. Calipari starts Miller, Hood, Harrellson, and Liggins along with freshmen Knight. The games will be played with a very thin bench, Freshmen Lamb, Poole, Jones, and preferred walk on freshman Polson.

These games will be played with a couple of special rules. Unlimited timeouts, and no player can foul out.

The game opens with great offense but little to no defense by either team. In the opening segment, the Cats made 5-10 shots including 2-3 from 3 point range, and Windsor hit 4-8 shots and 2-6 from long range. The Cats have had 4 offensive rebounds and 4 second chance points compared to Windsor's 1 offensive board providing 2 second chance points. The big difference is 2 turnovers compared to none for Windsor.

As the second segment begins, Calipari brings in his other 3 freshmen, Poole, Lamb and Jones for Hood, Harrellson and Liggins, and the Cats immediately force 2 Windsor turnovers, and score the first 4 points to extend their early lead to 6 points, 16-10. However, that lead would not stand as Windsor fought back to take a 1 points lead of their own, 21-20 just before the second segment ended with a Windsor turnover and the Cats leading 22-21 with 11:36 to play in the half. The Cats' shooting has slipped below 50% while Windsor is hitting 61.5% of its shots, and has not missed inside the arc, making all 5 of their attempts.

At the beginning of the third segment, the Cats again established their maximum, 6 point lead, 30-24, but 5 quick points by Windsor cut that lead back to 1 point, 30-29 at the under 8 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, the Cats missed two free throws and Windsor made 4 free throws without a miss to move out to a 3 point lead, 33-30. The Cats responded with the final 6 points of the segment to go to the under 4 TV timeout with a 3 point lead, 36-33 and possession.

The Cates finish the half out scoring Windsor 7-2 in the final segment, and a 13-2 run since Windsor held their 3 point lead.

In the second half, the Cats extend their halftime lead to 16 points, 61-45 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, the Cats outscored Windsor 13-4 to extend their lead to 25 points, 74-49 at the under 8 TV timeout and the Cats will have one free throw to complete the old fashioned 3 point play when play resumes with 7:44 to play in the game.

The Cats won the game 95-62.

UK scored its 95 points in a total of 80 possessions for the game, and Windsor scored its 62 points on a total of 80 possessions. Prior to the game, the NGE analysis projected a 88-60 Kentucky win on 74 possessions. The game offensive efficiency was 1.188 points per possession as compared to a projected efficiency of 1.189 ppp. The defensive efficiency was 0.775 ppp compared to a projected defensive efficiency of 0.811 ppp.

Kentucky dominated the boards, with a rebounding edge 51-36, and won the battle of the offensive glass 16-15. The Cats used their second chance possessions with greater efficiency, winning the second chance points battle 16-10. Windsor had an offensive efficiency of 0.650 ppp on its 80 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had 0.988 ppp on its 80 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 16 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a strong 43.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Windsor was able to convert 30.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 15-20 [75.0%]. Windsor made 15-19 [78.9%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 37-73 overall [50.7%] and 6-17 from long range [35.3%]. For Windsor, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a poor 16-42 [38.1%] and from long range, Windsor hit 5-26 [19.2%].

Turnovers were in great supply in this game. The Cats committed 14 turnovers, one for every 5.7 possessions. The Cats forced 18 Windsor turnovers, one for every 4.4 possessions.

Next Game On Schedule: Monday night, the Cats will take on Western Ontario in the second game of the Canadian Exhibition series.

WESTERN ONTARIO:

Western Ontario had a winning regular season in 2009-10 [12-10], and outscored their opponents 77.2 ppg to 75.9 ppg on an average of 76.6 possessions per game. In comparison, UK, last season, scored 79.3 ppg while allowing 64.8 ppg on about 71.4 possessions per game. Windsor played at a faster pace than the Cats. Windsor's offensive efficiency was 1.008 points per possession and their defensive efficiency was 0.984 ppp. The Cats ended the season with efficiencies of 1.110 ppp and 0.914 ppp at the offensive and defensive ends respectively. The biggest unknown in this analysis, as noted previously is Windsor's strength of schedule. Based on my stated assumption, the Cats should win this game by 35 points, 91-56 in a game played at a pace of about 74 possessions.

Game Summary:

Kentucky's thin exhibition roster became even thinner during game 1 against Windsor as freshman Terrence Jones was forced to leave the game due to a stress fractured rib. He will not return to action for the Cats until at least mid-September. Today, the Cats play game 2 of this 3 game Canadian tour against Western Ontario.

In game 2, Calipari starts Miller, Liggins, Knight, Harrellson, and Lamb. Coach Calipari will only have Poole, Polson, and Hood off the bench for game 2.

Kentucky opened by scoring the first 6 points, and after allowing WESTERN ONTARIO to score 4 straight of their own, the Cats converted 5 WESTERN ONTARIO turnovers and 2-6 shooting into a 12-4 lead at the end of the first segment. However, WESTERN ONTARIO ran off the next 9 points in the second segment to take a 13-12 lead with 13:46 to play in the half, prompting Coach Calipari to call a timeout. The Cats regained the lead out of the timeout, and took a 20-17 lead to the under 12 TV timeout, with WESTERN ONTARIO having possession when play resumes.

Through the first 8 minutes, the Cats have had 19 possession, including 5 turnovers. WESTERN ONTARIO has had 18 possessions including 5 turnovers. In the third segment, both teams put up 11 more points on only 7 possessions as the Cats continue to cling to a 3 point lead, 31-28 with 7:28 to play in the first half. Just like last night, the Kentucky defense in the first 12 minutes has been poor, allowing WESTERN ONTARIO to score 28 points on only 25 possessions. In the 4 th segment, the Cats asserted themselves and built a 10 point lead, 38-28, but WESTERN ONTARIO scored 5 straight to cut that lead back to 5 points before the Cats ended the scoring in the segment with a Knight basket to lead by 7 points, 40-33 at the under 4 TV timeout. Kentucky will have possession when play resumes.

The Cats ended the first half with a 22-11 run, and they started the second half by continuing to more than double the score on WESTERN ONTARIO, outscoring them 14-5 in the prolonged first segment of the second half to take a 20 point lead, 62-42 at the under 16 TV timeout with 14:52 to play in the game. In the abbreviated second segment, the Cats extended their lead to 23 points, 72-49 at the under 12 TV timeout with 11:32 to play.

Just like last night's game, tonight the Cats' defense was not very efficient through the first 12 minutes [1.077 ppp], but over the last 16 minutes, the Cats have limited WESTERN ONTARIO to 21 points on 37 possessions to reduce the defensive efficiency to 0.778 ppp for the game.

In the third segment of the second half, the teams played on even terms for the first time since the third segment of the first half, as the Cats maintained their lead at 23 points, 80-57 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the fourth segment the Cats eased out to a 26 point lead, 88-62 at the under 4 TV timeout.

The Cats Western Ontarion the game 96-68

UK scored its 96 points in a total of 86 possessions for the game, and WESTERN ONTARIO scored its 68 points on a total of 84 possessions. Prior to the game, the NGE analysis projected a 91-56 Kentucky win on 74 possessions. The game offensive efficiency was 1.116 points per possession as compared to a projected efficiency of 1.230 ppp. The defensive efficiency was 0.810 ppp compared to a projected defensive efficiency of 0.757 ppp.

Kentucky won the boards, with a rebounding edge 34-30, and won the battle of the offensive glass 9-5. The Cats used their second chance possessions with greater efficiency, winning the second chance points battle 8-2. WESTERN ONTARIO had an offensive efficiency of 0.786 ppp on its 84 first chance possessions and 0.400 ppp for its 5 second chance possessions. UK had 1.023 ppp on its 85 first chance possessions and 0.889 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a weak 26.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while WESTERN ONTARIO was able to convert an anemic 16.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 21-29 [72.4%]. WESTERN ONTARIO made 17-25 [68.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 34-64 overall [53.1%] and 7-18 from long range [38.9%]. For WESTERN ONTARIO, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a strong 18-38 [47.4%] and from long range, WESTERN ONTARIO hit 5-11 [45.5%].

Turnovers were in great supply in this game. The Cats committed 17 turnovers, one for every 5.1 possessions. The Cats forced 27 WESTERN ONTARIO turnovers, one for every 3.1 possessions.

Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday morning, the Cats will take on Windsor for the second time in the third and final game of the Canadian Exhibition series.

WINDSOR REMATCH:

Windsor had a winning regular season in 2009-10, and outscored their opponents 81.8 ppg to 73.0 ppg on an average of 77.6 possessions per game. In comparison, UK, last season, scored 79.3 ppg while allowing 64.8 ppg on about 71.4 possessions per game. Windsor played at a faster pace than the Cats. Windsor's offensive efficiency was 1.055 points per possession and their defensive efficiency was 0.941 ppp. The Cats ended the season with efficiencies of 1.110 ppp and 0.914 ppp at the offensive and defensive ends respectively. The biggest unknown in this analysis, as noted previously is Windsor's strength of schedule. Based on my stated assumptions and the results of games 1 and 2 of this three game series, the Cats should win this game by 30 points, 95-65 in a game played at a pace of about 80 possessions.

Game Summary:

Kentucky has won the first two games in this three game exhibition series in fine fashion despite a short bench, made even shorter by the loss of Terrence Jones during the first game to a rib injury. This morning we see how resilent this short roster will be coming back to play its third game in just 40 hours. Today's opponent will be the same opponent as the Cats faced in game 1 on Sunday night.

In the first 2 games, the Cats won by 33 and 28 points respectively while the NGE analysis projected 28 and 35 point margins respectively. To say that this team has measured up quite well in these two games to the standards set by the 2009-10 Wildcats is an understatement. First, the 2009-10 Cats played their entire season with a full roster while these Cats have clawed their way through these two games with only 8 contributors and those not available should be major elements for the 2010-11 season: Kanter, Jones, and Vargas. Second, by all accounts, the Windsor Lancers team this year should be considerably stronger than their 2009-10 counterparts.

So, we get game 3 on just 13 hours of “rest” following last nights game. Can these Cats replicate the effort and results of game 1 and 2 this morning?

In game 3, Calipari starts Miller, Poole, Knight, Hood, and Lamb. Coach Calipari will only have Liggins, Polson, and Harrellson off the bench for game 3.

Kentucky opens by hitting 4 of their first 7 shots, including 2 second chance baskets on a pair of offensive rebounds to take an early 8-5 lead. After a Windsor timeout, the Lancers tied the score at 8-8 on their second 3 pointer of the early going, but a three pointer by Miller reestablished the Cats' early 3 point lead, 11-8 at the under 16 TV timeout. Just as was the case for each of the previous games, UK's defense early has had less than stellar effectiveness, allowing Windsor to score 8 points on their first 8 possessions.

As the second segment begins, a 3 point play by Lamb increased the lead to 4 points, 14-9, but back to back baskets by Windsor cut the lead back to 1 point, 14-13 prompting a Kentucky timeout. Out of the timeout, the Cats rebuilt the lead to 5 points, 18-13, but Windsor's third 3 pointer trimmed the lead back to 2 points, prompting another UK timeout. At the end of the second segment, the Cats lead by 4 points, 22-18 at the under 12 TV timeout with 10:57 to play in the first half. In the first 9 minutes, the Cats' shooting has been off, 10-23 [43.5%] and only 1-5 from long range. In contrast, Windsor has hit 7-15 [46.7%] and 3 of 5 from long range. The Cats have established their thin lead by winning the offensive boards [6-2] and turnover battle [1-4]. In the third segment, the Cats added one more point to their lead, 5 points, 28-23 at the under 8 TV timeout after leading momentarily by 8 points, 26-18.

Through 12 minutes of play, the Kentucky defense has allowed 23 points on 25 possessions [0.920 ppp] while the Cats have posted their 28 points on 25 possessions [1.120 ppp]. Windsor is staying in the game from the 3 point line. In the 4 th segment, the Cats began to expand their lead from the low single digits of the first 12 minutes to double digits, 11 points, 41-30, at the under 4 TV timeout. The Kentucky defensive efficiency has fallen to 0.811 ppp with 3:48 to play in the first half.

Through 16 minutes, the pace of this game is the fastest of the three games in this series, at a 90+ pace. The Cats have scored 41 points on 36 possessions while Windsor has managed 30 points on 37 possessions. The Cats' poor early shooting has now improved to just under 50%. The teams close out the first half with the Cats holding their largest lead of the game, 18 points, 53-35. The first half pace is 86 possessions, which matches the game 2 pace and is faster than game 1. The teams ended the first half with efficiencies of 1.233 ppp for the Kentucky offense and 0.814 ppp for the defense.

In the first 8 minutes of the second half, the Cats expand their lead to a maximum of 23 points, 71-48, and 21 points 71-50 at the under 12 TV timeout. In a protracted third segment, the Cats established their biggest lead of the game, 26 points, 85-59 at the under 8 TV timeout with 6:53 to play in the game.

The Cats won the game 104-75

UK scored its 104 points in a total of 84 possessions for the game, and WINDSOR scored its 75 points on a total of 85 possessions. Prior to the game, the NGE analysis projected a 95-65 Kentucky win on 80 possessions. The game offensive efficiency was 1.238 points per possession as compared to a projected efficiency of 1.188 ppp. The defensive efficiency was 0.882 ppp compared to a projected defensive efficiency of 0.813 ppp.

Kentucky won the boards, with a rebounding edge 45-34, and won the battle of the offensive glass 17-10. The Cats used their second chance possessions with greater efficiency, winning the second chance points battle 20-8. WINDSOR had an offensive efficiency of 0.788 ppp on its 85 first chance possessions and 0.800 ppp for its 10 second chance possessions. UK had 1.000 ppp on its 84 first chance possessions and 1.176 ppp on its 17 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a strong 41.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while WINDSOR was able to convert a poor 26.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 14-19 [73.7%]. WINDSOR made 6-14 [42.9%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 41-78 overall [52.6%] and 8-20 from long range [40.0%]. For WINDSOR, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a strong 21-41 [51.2%] and from long range, WINDSOR hit 9-22 [40.9%].

Turnovers were in great supply in this game. The Cats committed 16 turnovers, one for every 5.2 possessions. The Cats forced 25 WINDSOR turnovers, one for every 3.4 possessions.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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