07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2010-11 Season Analytical Writings

09
Cats Advance To Maui Semi-Finals in Hawaii
Next Up In Maui-Washington

On Monday afternoon, the Cats established a dominating style early in the game against Oklahoma, but 4-14 shooting during the final 12 minutes, coupled with Oklahoma heating it up with 10 for 23 of their own shots over the same period allowed Oklahoma to whittle a commanding 18 point lead to a 12 point final margin. Overall, the Cats' shooting was off slightly from their blazing start during the first two games, but that decline still produced 50% overall, and 35% three point shooting. However, for the second game in three starts, this team has struggled mightily at the foul line, hitting only 11-22 in this game, after 9-23 against ETSU.

Next up for the Cats will be the Washington Huskies, the blow out winner overVirginia in their first round game.

Last year, Washington finished 26-10, losing in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament to West Virginia by 13 points. Washington ended the season with a Pomeroy rating of #30. However, make no mistake, this group of Huskies is not last year's team. It is much, much better.

Washington has already played, and won, three games this season. Washington has defeated #256 McNeese State by 54, #285 Eastern Washington by 26, and last night dismantled #90Virginia by 43. Washington has played these games at a pace of 93, 80 and 74 possessions per game respectively, averaging 83 possessions per game and 107.3 ppg and allowing 66.3 ppg. This translates to an offensive efficiency of 1.272 points per possession and a defensive efficiency of 0.824 ppp. Washington's turnover rate has been 12.5% while they have forced turnovers at an 27.3% rate. On the Boards, Washington's offensive and defensive rebounding rates have been 43.8% and 71.9% respectively.

As a basis of comparison, UK's performance against its first two opponents produced 67 possessions, and a score of 81 to 59 for efficiencies of 1.251 ppp and 0.836 ppp on the offensive and defensive ends. UK's turnover rate is 16% but UK only forced turnovers at a 16% rate. On the boards, the Cats posted rates of 39.6% and 72.9% at the offensive and defensive ends. Kentucky's current Pomeroy SOS value is 0.6859 while Washington's is only 0.3785.

The NGE analysis indicates a game played at a pace of about 75 possessions with the Cats losing for the first time this season by 2 points, 77-79. The analysis projects an offensive efficiency of 1.027ppp and a defensive efficiency of 1.053 ppp.

Game Summary:

For the fourth game in a row, Coach Calipari will start Knight, Jones, Miller, Liggins, and Harrellson.

Kentucky won the opening tip, but a charging foul by Miller and a Knight turnover on the Cats first 2 possessions produced a very quick 4-0 Washington lead prompting a Calipari timeout with 19:11 to go. Out of the timeout, the Cats scored on the play set by Coach Calipari, and after Washington scored again to go up by 4 for the second time, 6-2, the Cats ran off 9 straight points to take an 11-6 lead at the under 16 TV timeout. Each team has committed a lot of turnovers in the opening segment, 4 by the Cats and 3 by the Huskies. The Cats have the only offensive rebound that produced the only 2 second chance points thus far. The pace is frantic, between 90 and 100 possessions for the game, if the teams continue in this manner.

In the second segment, the pace settled back to about 80 possession level for the segment, and the Cats continued their run to 18 points, 20-6, before Washington stopped the run and scored 4 of the final 5 points of the segment. The Cats lead by 11 points, 21-10, at the under 12 TV timeout and the Cats will have the ball when play resumes. Darius Miller committed his second foul at about the 14:20 mark of the half and is now sitting on the bench. In the third segment, Washington comes charging back, outscoring the Cats 7-2 to cut the one time 14 point lead to only 6 points, 23-17 prompting a Kentucky timeout with 8:32 to play in the first half. In this segment, Knight picked up his second foul, and had to sit for the balance of the first half, exposing the Kentucky lack of depth.

In the fourth segment, Washington continued to chip away at the lead, cutting it to 2 oints, 26-24, at the under 4 TV timeout and 3:36 to play in the first half. The Cats have missed 8 of their 11 free throw attempts in this half, and Jones who is now 1 for 4, will be shooting a 1 and bonus when play resumes. Washington has made 6 of their 8 free throws in the game. In the final segment, Washington catches up with the Cats at 30-30. Kentucky's offense has completely stalled with Knight and Miller on the bench.

Washington regained the lead by 3 points on a 3 pointer, 33-30, and the teams traded baskets to the end of the half, with Washington taking a 1 point lead to the locker room, 35-34.

UK scored its 34 points in a total of 38 possessions for the half, and WASHINGTON scored its 35 points on a total of 37 possessions. Kentucky won the battle of the boards 25-20 primarily on the strength of an 10-7 advantage on the offensive glass. The Cats used their 10 second chance possessions to score 10 second chance point while WASHINGTON used its 7 second chance to score 4 second chance points. WASHINGTON had an offensive efficiency of 0.838 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 0.571 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had .632 ppp on its 38 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed an impressive 43.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while WASHINGTON was able to convert only 31.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit none of its free throws in the first half, making 6-13 [46.2%]. WASHINGTON also was effective from the line, making 7-10 [70.0%] for the half. Field goal shooting for UK was 13-34 overall [38.2%] and 2-6 from long range [33.3%]. For WASHINGTON, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a fair 11-27 [40.7%] and from long range, Washington hit 2-5 [40.0%].

The Cats committed 8 turnovers, one for every 4.8 possessions. The Cats forced 7 WASHINGTON turnovers, one for every 5.3 possessions.

Second Half:

The Cats open the second half scoring 8 points on their 8 possessions, while Washington only managed 6 points, as the Cats eased back into a 1 point lead, 42-41 at the under 16 TV timeout on a three pointer by Harrellson. Branon Knight picked up his third foul at the end of the segment. In the second segment, the Cats added 4 points to their fragile lead, to a 5 point lead, 48-43, but a turnover on the last possession of the segment will give Washington the ball when play resumes after the under 12 TV timeout.

Out of the timeout, tie, 50-50. However, after Washington squandered a chance to move up by 2 points by missing two free throws, Jones sank two of his own, and Knight took the ball to the rim for a basket, to move the Cats back up by 4 points, 54-50 with 8:30 to play in the game. However, the Cats then squandered a run out off a steal by Miller, and missed the contested layup, giving Washington a run out at the other end to cut the lead back to 2 points. Another Knight basket, on a jump shot from 17 feet, reestablished the 4 point lead, and Knight will have one free throw to complete the three point play when play resumes after the under 8 TV timeout with the Cats leading 56-52.

Knight did convert, but on the next Washington possession, Miller committed his 4 th foul. After Washington cut the lead back to 3 points, back to back baskets by Knight and Liggins pushed the Cats' lead to 7 points, 61-54, prompting a Washington timeout with 6:33 to play in the game. During the timeout, the officials conferred with the TV timeout monitor and then called a technical foul on one of the Washington players. Knight made 1 of the 2 technical shots, and Kentucky got possession. At the under 4 TV timeout, Kentucky is clinging to a 7 point lead, 64-57, and Vargas will be shooting free throws when play resumes after this final media break in the action.

During the timeout, the officials called a delayed technical foul on UK's Knight. Washington made both technical foul shots, and Vargas made his free throws, holding the lead static at 7 points, 66-59. The Cats closed the deal, winning 74-67.

Analysis:

UK scored its 74points in a total of 76 possessions for the game, and WASHINGTON scored its 67 points on a total of 75 possessions.

Kentucky won the boards, with a rebounding edge 49-39, and the Cats won the battle of the offensive glass 19-15. Kentucky won the second chance points battle 17-13. WASHINGTON had an offensive efficiency of 0.720 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 0.867 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had 0.750 ppp on its 76 first chance possessions and 0.895 ppp on its 19 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a powerful 44.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while WASHINGTON was able to convert only 33.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 21-34 [61.8%]. WASHINGTON made 14-22 [63.6%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 25-64 overall [39.1%] and 3-17 from long range [17.6%]. For WASHINGTON, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a strong 22-52 [42.3%] and from long range, WASHINGTON hit 3-13 [23.1%].

The Cats committed 15 turnovers, one for every 5.1 possessions. The Cats forced 14 WASHINGTON turnovers, one for every 5.4 possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 2 point UK loss, 75-79 at a pace of 75 possessions for UK and 75 possessions for Washington. The final score was 74 (77) to 67 (79) at a pace of 76 possessions for the Cats and 75 possessions for WASHINGTON. The UK offensive efficiency for the game was 0.974 ppp (D+) and the UK defensive efficiency was 0.893 ppp (B+).

Next Game On Schedule: Tomorrow night in Maui, Hawaii in the Championship game against UConn, the winner of tonight's other semi-final between UConn and Michigan State.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Cats Play UConn For Maui Championship

Go Back
Cats Remain Unbeaten, Handle Oklahoma by 12 in Maui