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2010-11 Season Analytical Writings

22
The Cats Continue Healing Against LSU

The Cats handled AUBURN with little fan fare or flair, and while the final margin of 24 points was enough to satisfy the Vegas professionals, it was not sufficient to satisfy Coach Calipari who expressed dismay following the game about his team's contentment with its playing time and the results it has been achieving. Coach Calipari wants to get more from this team, and frankly I believe that Coach Calipari is right and his exectations are proper. AUBURN is the worst team in the SEC in 2011, and if they manage to win a single league game this year, it will be an upset because they figure to be the underdog in every conference game, including their home schedule.

LSU is a better team than AUBURN, but only on a marginal basis. Their 2-0 SEC start is illusory, and not indicative in any measure of how these Tigers will finish the SEC season in 2011. LSU provides this UK team another opportunity to impress its coach by playing its game from start to finish regardless of the opposition. If the Cats play their game, LSU has little chance to stay any closer than 20 points, and could easily fall by more than 30 points in Rupp Arena.

LSU has played seventeen games posting a record of 10-7; 2--0. Their most impressive win has been by 3over #86 Arkansas this past week. LSU's losses have been at #92 Memphis by 9, by 1 against #41 Wichita State, and at #97 Virginia by 14. While those losses do not seem particularly embarrassing, consider that the LSU Tigers also lost to #179 Nichols State by 9, to #142 Coastal Carolina by 9, and at #132 Rice by 6.

LSU has played these games at an average pace of about 67 possessions, averaging 67.0 ppg and allowing 62.1 ppg. This translates to an offensive efficiency of 0.991 points per possession and a defensive efficiency of 0.924 ppp. LSU's turnover rate has been 21.4% while they have forced turnovers at a 20.5% rate. On the Boards, LSU's offensive and defensive rebounding rates have been 36.3% and 66.3% respectively.

As a basis of comparison, UK's performance against its first six opponents produced 69 to 70 possessions, and a score of 79.9 to 63.1 ppg for efficiencies of 1.150 ppp and 0.907 ppp on the offensive and defensive ends. UK's turnover rate is 16.1% but UK only forced turnovers at a 18.1% rate. On the boards, the Cats posted rates of 36.5% and 72.1% at the offensive and defensive ends.

Kentucky's current Pomeroy SOS value is 0.7019 while LSU's is 0.3661.

The NGE analysis indicates a game played at a pace of about 68 possessions for the Cats and 69 possessions for the Tigers, with the Cats winning for the fourteenth time in seventeen starts this season by 28 points, 82-54. The analysis projects an offensive efficiency of 1.206 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.783 ppp.

Game Summary:

After 15 games with the same starting lineup, Coach Calipari continues with Lamb in the starting five for the second game in a row, with Jones coming off the bench. Against LSU, Coach Calipari starts Knight, Lamb, Miller, Liggins, and Harrellson. There is little doubt that Jones will be the first player off the bench, followed by Vargas. After those top seven players, Coach Calipari has said that Poole has moved up on the depth chart and will be getting Hood's minutes as the season moves forward.

Since I was fortunate to attend this game, there is no real time summary of the game action. The Cats win 82-44.

Analysis:

UK scored its 82 points on 69 possessions for the game, and LSU scored its 44 points on 69 possessions.

Kentucky won the boards, with a rebounding edge 52-46, and LSU won the battle of the offensive glass 17-16. LSU won the second chance points battle 18-9. LSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.377 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 1.059 ppp for its 17 second chance possessions. UK had 1.058 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 0.563 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 35.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LSU was able to convert 32.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 14-18 [77.8%]. LSU made 7-12 [58.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 29-70 overall [41.4%] and 10-20 from long range [50.0%]. For LSU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 14-41[34.1%] and from long range, LSU hit 3-24 [12.5%].

The Cats committed 7 turnovers, one for every 9.9 possessions. The Cats forced 15 LSU turnovers, one for every 4.6 possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 28 point UK win, 82-54 at a pace of 68 possessions for UK and 69 possessions for LSU. The final score was 82 (82) to 44 (54) at a pace of 69 possessions for the Cats and 69 possessions for LSU. The UK offensive efficiency for the game was 1.188(C) and the UK defensive efficiency was 0.638 ppp (A).

Next Game On Schedule: The Cats will travel to Alabama on Tuesday, January 18.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Cats Begin Critical Seven Games At Alabama

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Cats Dispatch Auburn With Ease, Move to 13-3; 1-1