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2010-11 Season Analytical Writings

43
Cats Get Rematch With Connecticut In NCAA Final Four

My fading memory cells suggest a long forgotten song about being a long time from May to December, but the theme for Saturday's national semifinal matchup between the Connecticut Huskies and the Kentucky Wildcats must be, “It's a Long Time From November To April.” In November, we were all getting ready for a long winter season, with radios and our ears tuned to Tom Leach's voice, and eyes fixed on the TV screens while the Wildcats traversed another basketball season.

No one really knew what we could expect from this new collection of players; not the fans, not the opposing fans, not the opposing teams, not even the Kentucky coaches and players. Afterall, this team had 10 players, with a potential 11 th player waiting in the wings for permission to play. Most of us believed that if, heaven forbid, that 11 th player was somehow not ever available, this would be a long, cold winter. Of those 10 certain players, 1 was an invited walk on, 4 were new freshmen, 1 was a new JUCO transfer, and 4 were returning players, but of those 4, only 2 had logged any significant playing time during their time at UK. That UConnertain 11 th player was also a new freshman.

So we all walked away from Big Blue Madness in a tentative gait into the season that required this team to hit the road immediately, off to Maui to compete against the likes of a powerful, high flying Washington, and potentially either pre-season #2 Michigan State or Connecticut. The Cats surprisingly handled that powerful Washington team, and faced a red hot Connecticut team that knocked off the Spartans. What these young Cats experienced against the Huskies in Maui was nothing short of an eye opening buzz saw that ripped the Kentucky defense, and stifled the Kentucky offense on the way to an embarrassing 17 point win, that was truly over before the first half ended with UConn's 21-2 run from a 29-27 lead with 7:03 to play.

Wind the clock forward 4 ½ months, and we find these same two teams still standing in the one and done format NCAA tournament, poised to face each other for a second time, this time in one of the NCAA's semifinal games, THE FINAL FOUR. Without getting into all the details, UConn traversed its regular season 21-9, 9-9, and finished losing 4 of its last 5 Big East regular season games. Then, something magical occurred. UConn ran through the Big East Tournament with 5 straight wins, and then the 4 straight wins that are necessary to advance to the semifinal round of the NCAA Tournament. They are on a roll of epic proportions. Kentucky finished the regular season 22-8, 10-6, and finished the regular season winning 6 of their last 8 SEC games. Since then, the Cats have won 3 straight in the SEC Tournament and the 4 straight NCAA games to earn a spot in this national semifinal game. Kentucky is also in the midst of an epic season ending run.

What a back drop for Saturday's NCAA Final Four!!!!!

CONNECTICUT has played 39 games posting a 30-9; 14-9 record on way to the BIG EAST Tournament championship, defeating on successive nights Pitt, Syracuse and Louisville. CONNECTICUT played these games at an average pace of about 67 possessions, averaging 73.3 ppg and allowing 65.7 ppg. This translates to an offensive efficiency of 1.093 points per possession and a defensive efficiency of 0.980 ppp. CONNECTICUT's turnover rate has been 16.8% while they have forced turnovers at a 17.4% rate. On the Boards, CONNECTICUT's offensive and defensive rebounding rates have been 38.9% and 65.9% respectively.

As a basis of comparison, UK's performance against its first thirty opponents produced about 67 possessions, and a score of 75.4 to 63.7 ppg for efficiencies of 1.127 ppp and 0.950 ppp on the offensive and defensive ends. UK's turnover rate is 16.0% but UK only forced turnovers at a 17.9% rate. On the boards, the Cats posted rates of 34.3% and 69.2% at the offensive and defensive ends.

Kentucky's current Pomeroy SOS value is 0.7613 while CONNECTICUT's is 0.7935

The NGE analysis indicates a game played at a pace of about 67 possessions for the Cats and 67 possessions for the Huskies, with the Cats winning for the thirtieth time this season by 3 points, 71-68. The analysis projects an offensive efficiency of 1.060 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 1.015 ppp.

Game Summary:

Coach Calipari continues with the starting lineup that has led this team down the stretch run of the regular season, and into post season play with Knight, Liggins, Miller, Jones, and Harrellson. Lamb will be first off the bench and Vargas will probably get enough minutes to rest Harrellson during the game.

The Cats win the opening tip, and crash the boards hard from the start, but 4-12 shooting in the opening segment was offset by 4-5 shooting by UConn in the first 5 minutes. The difference in the opening segment is that UConn committed 3 turnovers to none for the Cats, and the Cats got 5 offensive rebounds and 2 second chance points to none for UConn, to give the Cats the early lead, 10-8 at the under 16 TV timeout. When play resumes with 15:03 to play, the Cats will have the ball. Out of the timeout, the Cats commit a pair of turnovers, and Walker makes 1 of 2 free throws to trim the Kentucky lead to 1 point, 10-9, and after a UK steal by Harrellson gets Jones to the line for a pair, UConn takes a timeout with 13:09 to play in the first half. Jones missed both, and the Cats are only 1-5 from the line so far. At the under 12 TV timeout, the Cats continue to cling to the 1 point lead, 12-11, with UConn in possession of the ball and 10:47 to play.

Out of the timeout, the Huskies run off 7 straight, to make it a 10 point run, forcing Kentucky to take a timeout trailing 19-12 with 8:17 to play in the first half. A layup by Knight, a 3 pointer by Knight, and a fast break basket by Jones trimmed the UConn lead to 2 points, 21-19, but the segment ended with a disputed block on Harrellson, his second foul, and a three point opportunity for UConn at the under 8 TV timeout with 6:39 to play. However, out of the timeout, UConn reasserted its dominance and extended the lead to a game high 8 points, 27-19, at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:30 to play, and UConn in possession.

The Cats have shot poorly, and rebounding poorly, and find themselves down 8 points late in the first half, and the Cats trail UConn by 10, 31-21, at the half.

UK scored its 21 points with 31 possessions for the half, and CONNECTICUT scored its 31 points on 31 possessions. CONNECTICUT and Kentucky both grabbed 20 rebounds in the first half, and Kentucky won the offensive glass 9-4, but UConn converted its second chances into 7 points while the Cats managed only 2 second chance points. Twice, the Cats came up empty after getting back to back offensive rebounds. CONNECTICUT had an offensive efficiency of 0.774 ppp on its 31 first chance possessions and 1.750 ppp on its 4 second chances. Kentucky had an efficiency of 0.613 ppp on its 31 first chance possessions and 0.222 ppp on its 9 second chance possession. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 36.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while CONNECTICUT was able to convert 26.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit 1 of its 5 free throws in the first half [20.0%]. CONNECTICUT hit 2-4 [50.0%] for the half. Field goal shooting for UK was 9-32 overall [28.1%] and 2-12 from long range [16.7%]. For CONNECTICUT, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 13-21 [61.9%] and from long range, CONNECTICUT hit 1-6 [16.7%].

The Cats committed 6 turnovers, one for every 5.2 possessions. The Cats forced 7 Huskie turnovers, one for every 4.4 possessions.

Second Half:

The Cats open the second half with 3 defensive stops and back to back 3 pointers by Knight and Miller to cut the 10 point lead to 4 points, 31-27, prompting a quick UConn timeout with 18:22 to play. After the timeout, the teams trade baskets, and the Cats trail by 4, 33-29, at the under 16 TV timeout, and the Cats will have the ball. The Cats take the lead following back to back 3 pointers by Lamb, but then UConn regains the lead, and the teams trade baskets to the end of the second segment with UConn holding on to a 1 point lead, 40-39, and the ball with 11:56 to play.

In the third segment, after Lamb's 3 rd 3 pointer tied the score at 42-42, UConn scored the next 4 points, and Kentucky takes a timeout with 8:30 to play. The Cats pulled back even at 48-48, but UConn answered again with 4 straight go back up by 4, 52-48, prompting another Kentucky timeout with 4:07 to play. UConn goes up by 6, 54-48 with 2:09 to play. Liggins makes a 3 pointer, and after a stop, the Cats have the ball with 56 seconds to play with a chance to tie with another 3 pointer. Liggins is fouled, but only makes 1 of 2 free throws to trim the lead to 2 points. UConn turns it over with 16 seconds to play, and the Cats needing 2 points to tie. Liggins missed a long 3 point attempt and fouled on the rebound with 2 seconds to play. After UConn made both free throws, the 4 point lead is sufficient to assure the win for the Huskies, 56-52. Knight made a buzzer beater 3 to trim the lead to a single point, and the final score, 56-55.

Analysis:

UK scored its 55 points on 62 possessions for the game, and CONNECTICUT scored its 56 points on 62 possessions.

CONNECTICUT won the battle of the boards, 38-37 on total rebounds but Kentucky won the offensive rebounds, 15-6. However, CONNECTICUT was also able to convert its offensive rebounds into a 6 point advantage with second chance points, 11-5. CONNECTICUT had an offensive efficiency of 0.726 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 1.833 ppp for its 6 second chance possessions. UK had 0.806 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 0.333 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 31.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while CONNECTICUT was able to convert 21.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit very poorly from the free throw line hitting 4-12 [33.3%]. CONNECTICUT made 9-11 [81.8%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 21-62 overall [33.9%] and 9-27 from long range [33.3%]. For CONNECTICUT, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 22-37 [59.5%] and from long range, CONNECTICUT hit 1-12 [8.3%].

The Cats committed 10 turnovers, one for every 6.2 possessions. The Cats forced 15 CONNECTICUT turnovers, one for every 4.1 possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 3 point UK win, 71-68 at a pace of 67 possessions for UK and 67 possessions for CONNECTICUT. The final score was 55 (71) to 56 (68) at a pace of 62 possessions for the Cats and 62 possessions for CONNECTICUT. The UK offensive efficiency for the game was 0.887 (D-) and the UK defensive efficiency was 0.903 ppp (B-).

Next Game On Schedule: With this loss, the Cats close their 2010-11 season 29-9.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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Cats Avenge History AGAIN and North Carolina To Advance To Final Four;
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