BIG BLUE FANS FOR
2011-12 Season Analytical Writings
On Saturday, the Cats protected Cawood's Court for the third time this year in the SEC, protected their unblemished conference record, and took a step to the head of the pack with Vanderbilt falling at home to Mississippi State. In addition, on the national stage, the Cats will step up to the #1 spot in the polls following Saturday losses by #1 Syracuse, #3 Baylor, and #4 Duke. So, the Cats take their shiny #1 ranking back on the road in the SEC for another 2 game trip, to Georgia and then to LSU.
Georgia enters this game with a 10-9 record, 1-4 in the SEC. On the road, Georgia has a 1-4 record, 0-2 in the SEC, and on neutral floors the Dawgs have been 1-1. At home, Georgia has been 8-4, 1-2 in the SEC. Georgia's most impressive win to date has been their early season 11 point win over #68 South Dakota State, and their most embarrassing loss has been by 12 to #139 Georgia Tech. In conference play, Georgia's only win was over #103 Tennessee in Athens this past Wednesday night, but rather than build upon that win, Georgia lost at home to #110 Mississippi by 3 on Saturday.
GEORGIA has played its 19 games at an average pace of about 63 possessions, averaging 61.9 ppg and allowing 63.2 ppg. This translates to an offensive efficiency of 0.978 points per possession and a defensive efficiency of 0.994 ppp. Contributing to those efficiencies are GEORGIA's turnover and rebounding rates. GEORGIA's turnover rate has been 17.5% while they have forced turnovers at a 19.0% rate. On the Boards, GEORGIA's offensive and defensive rebounding rates have been 30.7% and 67.2% respectively. GEORGIA's schedule strength prior to this game is 0.641.
As a basis of comparison, UK's performance against its first 20 opponents produced 70 possessions, and a score of 79.5 to 59.7 ppg for efficiencies of 1.133 ppp and 0.866 ppp on the offensive and defensive ends. Contributing to those efficiencies are Kentucky's turnover and rebounding rates. UK's turnover rate is 18.5% and UK has forced turnovers at a 20.3% rate. On the boards, the Cats posted rates of 39.0% and 68.6% at the offensive and defensive ends. Kentucky's schedule strength prior to this game is 0.547
The NGE analysis indicates a game played at a pace of about 67 possessions for UK and 66 possessions for GEORGIA with the Cats winning their twentieth game in twenty one starts this season by 6 points, 70-64. The analysis projects an offensive efficiency of 1.045 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.970 ppp.
Sophomores Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb will start along with the three freshmen Kidd-Gilchrist, Anthony Davis, and Marquis Teague. Darius Miller will be the #6 man with Eloy Vargas, Kyle Wiltjer and Twany Beckham coming off the bench.
The Cats take the opening tip, and get the first score of the game, but a pair of 3 pointers by Georgia in the opening segment, and no turnovers to UK's 3 turnovers allows the Dawgs to maintain an early lead, 12-11, at the under 16 media timeout with 14:28 to play in the first half. In the abbreviated second segment, the teams each scored 2 points as Georgia maintained its 1 point lead, 14-13 at the under 12 media timeout. Out of the timeout, a Georgia turnover, and 4 missed shots was countered by 3 for 4 shooting by the Cats, including back to back 3 pointers by Miller to propel the Cats on top by 7 points, 21-14, prompting a Georgia timeout with 10:10 to play. Out of the timeout, Georgia made 3 of their next 4 shots on 3 possessions to trim the Cats' lead to 3 points, 23-20, prompting a Kentucky timeout with 7:02 to play in the first half.
In the fourth segment, Darius Miller scored 7 straight Kentucky points as the Cats extended their lead from 3 points, 28-25, to 10 points, 35-25 at the under 4 media timeout with 1:47 to play in the first half. The Cats finish the first half with a 12 point lead, 38-26.
UK scored its 38 points in a total of 29 possessions [1.310 points per possession] for the half, and GEORGIA scored its 26 points on a total of 29 possessions [0.897 ppp]. Kentucky won the battle of the boards 20-11, and GEORGIA and Kentucky each grabbed 4 offensive rebounds. GEORGIA used their second chance possessions for a 6-0 advantage in second chance points. GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.690 ppp on its 29 first chance possessions and 1.500 ppp for its 4 second chance possessions. UK had 1.310 ppp on its 29 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp on its 4 second chance possession. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a below average 36.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA was able to convert a weak 20.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK hit 4 for 4 free throws in the first half [100.0%]. GEORGIA was 1-2 [50.0%] for the half. Field goal shooting for UK was 14-25 overall [56.0%] and 6-10 from long range [60.0%]. For GEORGIA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 8-19 [42.1%] and from long range, GEORGIA hit 3-11[27.3%].
The Cats committed 6 turnovers, one for every 4.8 possessions. The Cats forced 2 GEORGIA turnovers, one for every 14.5 possessions.
The Dawgs open the second half with a basket to trim the lead to 10 points, but the Cats score the next 5 points to stretch their lead to 15 points, prompting a Georgia timeout with 16:40 to play in the game. After the timeout, the teams traded baskets and the Cats maintained a 16 point lead, 46-30, at the under 16 media timeout. In the abbreviated second segment, Georgia scored the only 4 points of the segment to trim the lead back to 12, 46-34 at the under 12 media timeout.
In the third segment, the Cats add 2 points back to their lead, to 14 points, 50-36 at the under 8 media timeout with 7:47 to play in the game. At the end of the 4 th segment, the lead stands at 16 points, 54-38. The Cats win 57-44.
UK scored its 57 points in a total of 56 possessions [1.018 ppp] for the game, and GEORGIA scored its 44 points on a total of 57 [0.772 ppp].
Kentucky won the battle of the boards, 43-23, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 11-6. GEORGIA won the second chance points battle 4-6. GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.667 ppp on its 57 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 6 second chance possessions. UK had 0.946 ppp on its 56 first chance possessions and 0.364 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a season average 39.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA was able to convert 15.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game by making 7-12 [58.3%]. GEORGIA made 1-3 [33.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 21-47 overall [44.7%] and 8-18 from long range [44.4%]. For GEORGIA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak 14-37 [37.8%] and from long range, GEORGIA hit 5-19 [26.3%].
The Cats committed 14 turnovers, one for every 4.0 possessions. The Cats forced 6 GEORGIA turnovers, one for every 9.5 possessions.
Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 6 point UK win, 70-64 at a pace of 67 possessions for UK and 66 possessions for GEORGIA. The final score was 57 (70) to 44 (64) at a pace of 56 possessions for the Cats and 57 possessions for GEORGIA. The UK offensive efficiency for the game was 1.018 (D+) and the UK defensive efficiency was 0.772 ppp (A).
Next Game On Schedule: January 28, 2012 at LSU in Baton Rouge.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Submitted by Richard Cheeks