2011-12 Preseason Forecast

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2011-12 Season Analytical Writings

25A
2011v2012 ROSTER COMPARISON
A MID-SEASON UPDATE

During the previous off season, I reflected on the 2010-11 team and projected and speculated about the 2011-12 team. In the process, I made a player by player, position by position comparison. You can read this analysis here.

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2011-12DataandWritings/2011-12_SeasonWritings/00_11v12RosterComparison.htm

I will use the format of that analysis, and update and compare the forecast to how these teams compare 22 games into the 2011-12 season.

The Starters:

PG: Knight v Teague

Preseason forecast: While Teague is not Wall or Knight, his presence on the floor will be a NET positive for the team. Advantage 2012.

Knight's individual efficiency ended the season at 0.061 points per possession, 7 th of 8 contributors. Knight ended 26.9% of the team's possession. Teague's individual efficiency through 22 games is 0.132 ppp, 7 th of 8 contributors. Teague has ended 17.4% of the team's total possessions. Advantage 2012.

C: Harrellson v Davis

Preseason forecast: While Harrellson turned in a performance in 2010-11 for the ages, and was instrumental in Kentucky's post season run, Davis may be the #1 incoming freshman in 2011-12 with all the natural talent that Harrellson lacked. Advantage 2012.

Harrellson's individual efficiency ended the season at an unbelievable 1.564 points per possession, 1 st of 8 contributors. Harrellson ended only 4.2% of the team's possession because while Josh was efficient when he could operate down low, he was limited in the number of situations he could be effective, and the team looked elsewhere on the offensive end. Davis's individual efficiency through 22 games is 0.790 ppp, also 1 st of 8 contributors. Davis has ended 10.6% of the team's total possessions. The increased utilization rate coupled with a team high efficiency more than offsets the decline in raw efficiency. Advantage 2012.

SG: Lamb v Lamb

Preseason forecast: Lamb as a sophomore will contribute more to the team than Lamb did as a freshman. Advantage 2012.

Lamb's individual efficiency as a Freshman ended the season at 0.156 points per possession, 4 th of 8 contributors. Lamb ended 15.7% of the team's possession. Lamb's individual efficiency as a Sophomore through 22 games is 0.217 ppp, 5 th of 8 contributors. Lamb has ended 16.3% of the team's total possessions. Advantage 2012.

SF: Miller v Miller

Preseason forecast: Miller as a senior will contribute more to the team than Miller did as a junior. Advantage 2012.

Miller's individual efficiency as a Junior ended the season at 0.255 points per possession, 3 rd of 8 contributors. Miller ended 13.5% of the team's possession. Miller's individual efficiency as a Senior through 22 games is 0.330 ppp, 2 nd of 8 contributors. Miller has ended 12.5% of the team's total possessions. Advantage 2012.

PF: Jones v Jones

Preseason forecast: Jones as a sophomore will contribute more to the team than Jones did as a freshman. Advantage 2012.

Jones' individual efficiency as a Freshman ended the season at 0.092 points per possession, 6 th of 8 contributors. Jones ended 21.8% of the team's possession. Jones' individual efficiency as a Sophomore through 22 games is 0.210 ppp, 6 th of 8 contributors. Jones has ended 15.1% of the team's total possessions. Advantage 2012.

The Bench:

Gilchrist, Fr v Liggins, Jr: Preseason forecast: Advantage 2012

Liggins' individual efficiency as a Junior ended the season at 0.130 points per possession, 5 th of 8 contributors. Liggins ended 13.5% of the team's possession. Kidd-Gilchrist's individual efficiency as a Freshman through 22 games is 0.329 ppp, 3 rd of 8 contributors. Kidd-Gilchrist has ended 15.0% of the team's total possessions. Advantage 2012.

Vargas, Sr v Vargas, Jr: Preseason forecast: Advantage 2012

Vargas' individual efficiency as a Junior ended the season at 0.662 points per possession, 2 nd of 8 contributors. Vargas ended 1.2% of the team's possessions. Vargas' individual efficiency as a Senior through 22 games is 0.290 ppp, 4 th of 8 contributors. Vargas has ended 1.4% of the team's total possessions. While the amount of possessions ended has remained at a very low level, his efficiency has declined from last season. Advantage 2011.

Wiltjer, Fr v No One: Preseason forecast: Advantage 2012

Wiltjer was not a member of the 2010-11 team, and his presence on the 2011-12 team has been a NET positive addition. Wiltjer's individual efficiency as a Freshman through 22 games is 0.081 ppp, 8 th of 8 contributors. Wiltjer has ended 7.5% of the team's total possessions. Hood was the 8 th contributor on the 2010-11 team, and his injury has forced him to sit out this season while he heals. However, since Wiltjer now occupies that 8 th position in the pecking order, for the record, Hood has an individual efficiency last season of -0.215 ppp, the only regular contributor on either team with a negative impact. Hood ended only 1.5% of that team's possessions. Advantage 2012.

Hood, Jr v Hood, So: Preseason forecast: Advantage 2012

Hood could not play this season due to injury. See the Wiltjer narrative above.

Poole, So v Poole, Fr: Preseason forecast: Advantage 2012

Poole left the team due to lack of playing time and other factors, so a year to year comparison is not appropriate, and Poole was not among the 8 regular contributors during his Freshman year in 2010-11.

Beckham, Jr v No One: Preseason forecast: Advantage 2012

Beckham became eligible as a transfer from Mississippi State at the semester break. Since then, he has been limited to 28 minutes in 9 appearances, using 0% of the team's possessions. No Comparison is Appropriate.

Polson, So. v Polson, Fr: Preseason forecast: Advantage 2012

Polson's individual efficiency as a Freshman ended the season at -0.424 points per possession, not as one of the 8 contributors. Polson ended 1.0% of the team's possession. Polson's individual efficiency as a Sophomore through 22 games is -0.769 ppp, again not one of the 8 contributors. Polson has ended 1.6% of the team's total possessions. Advantage 2011.

I concluded the pre-season roster comparison with the following opinions:

2012 will be stronger in its starting five across the board, at every position, and even if Gilchrist takes a starting spot away from Miller or Lamb, that comparison of 2011 to 2012 will remain the case. Furthermore, the Kentucky bench in 2012 will be deeper and stronger across the board.

I believe that the 2011-12 Kentucky team will begin the season as either the #1 or #2 team, with North Carolina getting the #1 votes that Kentucky does not secure. This team will be young, as has become the trademark for the Calipari era at UK, but the decision by Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones to return with Miller and Vargas will give the 2012 version of the Wildcats an experienced depth that each of Calipari's first two editions lacked, and last year's team found completely absent. I expect the 2011-12 version of the Wildcats will mature and grow up faster than either of Calipari's first two teams.

While few national writers with get excited about this team's prospects, it will have a legitimate opportunity to go through the season without a single loss, as UK will be favored to win every game on its 2011-12 schedule, including its annual match up with the Tar Heels, which this season will occur at Rupp Arena. However, from a more sober perspective, these Cats could lose as many as three games [1 non-conference and 2 SEC] going into the post season, and this team will be one of the legitimate contenders to win the National Championship on the first Monday of April 2012.

The 2010-11 team ended the season with a raw team Net Game Efficiency of 0.172 ppp, and advanced to the NCAA Final Four before falling by 1 point to eventual Champion Connecticut. Through 22 games, the 2011-12 team has a raw team Net Game Efficiency of 0.270 ppp. This team has a 21-1 record, 7-0 in the SEC with 4 precious SEC road wins in four trips to its credit. I stand by my pre-season analysis on January 30, 2012, 22 games into what I still believe could be a 40 game experience.

Thank you Coach Calipari for bringing this program back to national contention.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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