Are Late Season Losses Helpful?

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2011-12 Season Analytical Writings

26A
Are Late Season Losses Helpful?

It seems that any season in which “my team” rises to the top and my fellow fans and I believe “our team” is part of that seasonal cream, the argument invariably occurs about whether late season losses will be a good or bad thing for “my team's” chances to achieve the ultimate goal, winning the NCAA post season tournament. Just as certain as it is for the debate to occur, it is certain that two camps, with opposing views emerge to argue with passion for their point of view. One side takes the view that late season losses are a good thing because they relieve the pressure that long sustained winning streaks can impose upon a team, and allows them to refocus their attention and effort on the things that allow them to win in the first place as the tournament begins. The other side takes the view that losing is never a good thing for a team to experience because it can deflate egos, and expose team and individual weaknesses. This latter argument admits that some coaches can use these late season losses with some teams to achieve the refocus that the proponents of the proposition argue will occur, but the opponents also argue that those positive outcomes are not guaranteed in the aftermath of a late season loss.

I have done some research into the question. First, I examined the distribution of losses prior to the NCAA Tournament for the upper crust of the field, and separated them into the following categories.

• Teams with 0 losses prior to the NCAA Tournament:

• Teams with 1 loss prior to the tournament:

• Teams with 2 losses prior to the tournament:

• Teams with 3 or 4 losses prior to the tournament:

• Teams with 5 to 7 losses prior to the tournament:

Here are those distributions for 2003 through 2011:

• 0 Losses: No Teams No Champions

• 1 Loss: 4 Teams No Champions

• St. Joseph 2004

• Stanford 2004

• Illinois 2005

• Memphis 2008

• 2 Losses: 3 Teams No Champions

• Gonzaga 2004

• George Wash. 2006

• North Carolina 2008

• 3 or 4 Losses: 54 Times 3 Champions in 9 Tournaments

• North Carolina 2005

• Kansas 2008

• North Carolina 2009

• 5 to 7 Losses: 210 Times 5 Champions in 9 Tournaments

• Syracuse 2003

• UConn 2004

• Florida 2006

• Florida 2007

• Duke 2010

• 8 or More Losses: Uncounted Times 1 Champion in 9 Tournaments

• UConn 2011

The next questions are: How did the 7 teams that finished with only 1 or 2 losses finish their season prior to the NCAA Tournament? How did the 9 Champions finish their seasons prior to the NCAA Tournament?

Teams With 1 Loss:

• St. Joseph 2004:

• Lost in A10 Tournament

• #1 Seed for NCAA

• Lost in Elite 8

• Stanford 2004:

• Lost last game of Regular Season

• Won P10 Tournament

• #1 Seed for NCAA

• Lost in 2 nd Round

• Illinois 2005:

• Lost last game of Regular Season

• Won B10 Tournament

• #1 Seed for NCAA

• Lost in Championship Game

• Memphis 2008:

• Lost 27 th game of Regular Season, Feb 23

• Won CUSA Tournament

• #1 Seed for NCAA

• Lost in Championship Game

Teams With 2 Losses:

• Gonzaga 2004:

• Lost 1 st game of Regular Season, Nov 14

• Lost 9 th game of Regular Season, Dec 20

• Won WCC Tournament

• #2 Seed for NCAA

• Lost in 2 nd Round

• George Washington 2006:

• Lost 9 th game of Regular Season, Dec 30

• Lost 1 st Game of A10 Tournament

• #8 Seed for NCAA

• Lost in 2 nd Round

• North Carolina 2008:

• Lost 19 th game of Regular Season, Jan 19

• Lost 23 rd game of Regular Season, Feb 6

• Won ACC Tournament

• #1 Seed for NCAA

• Lost in Final Four

NCAA Champions, 2003 through 2011:

• Syracuse 2003:

• Lost 2 nd Round Game of BIGE Tournament, Mar 14

• Lost 5 Games Total

• UConn 2004:

• Lost last game of Regular Season, Mar 7

• Lost 6 Games Total

• North Carolina 2005:

• Lost 2 nd Round Game of ACC Tournament, Mar 12

• Lost 4 Games Total

• Florida 2006:

• Lost 6 of 11 games in Regular Season between Jan 21 and Feb 26

• Lost 6 Games Total

• Florida 2007:

• Lost 3 of 4 games in Regular Season between Feb 17 and Feb 27

• Lost 5 Games Total

• Kansas 2008:

• Lost 2 or 3 games in Regular Season between Feb 11 and Feb 23

• Lost 3 Games Total

• North Carolina 2009:

• Lost 2 nd Round Game of ACC Tournament, Mar 14

• Lost 4 Games Total

• Duke 2010:

• Lost 30 th game of Regular Season, Mar 3

• Lost 5 Games Total

• UConn 2011:

• Lost 7 of 11 games in Regular Season between Jan 29 and Mar 5

• Lost 9 Games Total

When I began digging through the archives to compile this information, I suppose that I was hoping that some trend would emerge that would speak to the annual debate. However, in my opinion, let the debate rage on because I see nothing here that will sway my view that losses are not good things, or the view that late season losses benefit teams and propel them on to championship.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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