Cats Face Vandy For Championship

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2011-12 Season Analytical Writings

37
Cats Advance To Championship Game To Play Vanderbilt

In the Semifinal Game of the SEC Tournament on Saturday, the Kentucky Wildcats took on the second strongest team in the conference for the third time this season, and the second time in less than a week. The outcome Saturday was the same as it was the first two times these teams competed, Kentucky won. The Cats' reward for disposing of the Gators for the third time is a third encounter with the Vanderbilt Commodores in the Championship game on Sunday. Vanderbilt is the third strongest team in the SEC this season.

College basketball is rife with overused sayings, and this game puts some more of them into motion for the second time in two days. “It is hard to beat the same team three times in one season.” However, just as the Cats still enjoyed the same advantages over the Gator team on Saturday despite the third encounter, the Cats still enjoy the same advantages over the Commodores that propelled the Cats to those earlier victories at Rupp and in Nashville. Those same advantages are the reason the Cats should handle the Commodores for the third time on Sunday.

VANDERBILT has played 33 games at an average pace of about 67 possessions, averaging 73.0 ppg and allowing 65.0 ppg. This translates to an offensive efficiency of 1.088 points per possession and a defensive efficiency of 0.970 ppp. Contributing to those efficiencies are VANDERBILT's turnover and rebounding rates. VANDERBILT's turnover rate has been 19.8% while they have forced turnovers at a 19.3% rate. On the Boards, VANDERBILT's offensive and defensive rebounding rates have been 32.1% and 68.0% respectively. VANDERBILT's schedule strength prior to this game is 0.691.

As a basis of comparison, UK's performance against its first 33 opponents produced 66 possessions, and a score of 77.1 to 58.6 ppg for efficiencies of 1.161 ppp and 0.883 ppp on the offensive and defensive ends. Contributing to those efficiencies are Kentucky's turnover and rebounding rates. UK's turnover rate is 17.3% and UK has forced turnovers at a 18.0% rate. On the boards, the Cats posted rates of 38.7% and 69.1% at the offensive and defensive ends. Kentucky's schedule strength prior to this game is 0.649.

The NGE analysis indicates a game played at a pace of about 67 possessions for UK and 67 possessions for VANDERBILT with the Cats winning their thirty third game in thirty four starts this season by 9 points, 73-64. The analysis projects an offensive efficiency of 1.090 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.955 ppp.

Game Summary:

Coach Calipari deviates from his usual starting lineup for today's championship game, inserting Darius Miller into the starting role with Kidd-Gilchrist taking the 6 th man role for the game. Miller joins Sophomores Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb along with the two of the three freshmen Marquis Teague and Anthony Davis. Kidd-Gilchrist will be the #6 man with Eloy Vargas, Kyle Wiltjer and Twany Beckham coming off the bench. However, Coach Calipari has not used Vargas or Beckham in recent games, and has played with a 7-player rotation.

Kentucky won the opening tip, and Kentucky drew first blood on a Terrence Jones steal and run out basket. Within the first 2 minutes of the game, the Cats sprinted to a 7-1 lead before Vanderbilt make two 3 pointers to close the gap to 2 points, 9-7, at the under 16 media timeout and the Cats in possession. The opening segment was marked by turnovers, 3 by Vandy and 2 by the Cats. Kentucky claimed the only offensive rebound of the first 4 minutes, and used it to convert it into 2 second chance points. Finally, the early pace was very fast, relative to UK's past 2 months playing in the low to mid 60s, with 8 possessions for each team. In the second segment, Vandy outscored the Cats 4-1 to take its first lead of the day, 11-10, prompting Coach Calipari to call a timeout with 13:35 to play.

Out of the timeout, an assist for Darius Miller on a lob to Davis, and a Miller basket put the Cats back on top by 3 points at the under 12 media timeout, 14-11, with the Cats in possession of the ball. That was Miller's first basket of this tournament. In the third segment, Vanderbilt rode 6 second chance points to a 10-4 scoring advantage in the segment, to convert the UK 3 point lead into a Vandy 3 point lead, 21-18 at the under 8 media timeout. In the fourth segment, Vanderbilt adds 5 more points to the lead, 26-18, forcing Coach Calipari to call another timeout with 5:19 to play and the Cats down 8 points.

Out of the timeout, the Cats stop the Vandy run, and close to 5 points, 28-23, at the under 4 media timeout, and Vandy in possession. Out of the timeout, Miller blocked a Vandy shot, and Wiltjer drained a 3 pointer, and Wiltjer blocked a Vandy shot, and Davis got a put back basket to tie the score, and drawing a Vandy timeout with 2:36 to play in the first half. During the timeout, Vandy coach Stallings was assessed a Technical Foul. Lamb made both of the Technical free throws to move the Cats out by 2 points. Following a 3 pointer by Wiltjer, the Cats led by 5, 35-30, but Vandy closed the half with a 7-2 run to tie the game at the half, 37-37.

UK scored its 37 points in 34 possessions [1.088 points per possession] for the half, and VANDERBILT scored its 37 points on a total of 33 possessions [1.121 ppp]. Kentucky won the boards in the first half, 18-17 in total rebounds, and Kentucky controlled the offensive rebounds 8-3. Kentucky used its second chances to win the second chance points race, 11-8. VANDERBILT had an offensive efficiency of 0.879 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 2.667 ppp for its 3 second chance possessions. UK had 0.765 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 1.375 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed an average 36.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while VANDERBILT was able to convert 23.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit 5 for 7 free throws in the first half [71.4%]. VANDERBILT was 6-9 [66.7%] for the half. Field goal shooting for UK was 14-36 overall [38.9%] and 4-16 from long range [25.0%]. For VANDERBILT, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 8-18 [44.4%] and from long range, VANDERBILT hit 5-9 [55.6%].

The Cats committed 4 turnovers, one for every 8.5 possessions. The Cats forced 5 VANDERBILT turnovers, one for every 6.6 possessions.

Second Half:

Vandy opens the second half drawing first blood and easing out to a 2 point lead, but the Cats respond to tie it at 39, and again at 41, and 43 before a 3 pointer by Miller lifted the Cats to a 1 point lead at the under 16 media timeout, 46-45, with 14:36 to play in the game, and the Cats in possession of the ball when play resumes. Out of the timeout, the Cats commit back to back turnovers and Vandy regains the lead. However, Kidd-Gilchrist ends that brief run before committing his 4 th personal foul that allows Vandy to tie the score again at 48-48. The Cats manage a basket to 1-2 free throws for Vandy to cling to a 1 point lead, 50-49 at the under 12 media timeout, and when play resumes, Davis will be shooting a pair of free throws.

Davis missed both, but Terrence Jones rebounded the second miss, and put it back in for a 3 point lead, and following another Vandy turnover, Jones drove for a dunk. To put the Cats up by 5 points, prompting a Vandy timeout. The teams traded baskets for the balance of the segment as the Cats hold to a 5 point lead at the under 8 media timeout with 7:36 to play in the game, 59-54. In the 4 th segment, Vandy closed the gap to 3 points, 62-59, and will be shooting foul shots when play resumes, as Kidd-Gilchrist fouled out leading to the timeout with 2:51 to play in the game.

Out of the timeout, Vandy makes 1 of 2 free throws, and scores back to back baskets off of Kentucky misses, the second being an old fashioned 3 point play to give Vandy a 3 point lead, 65-62. Davis makes 1 of 2 to trim the lead to 2 points, and Jones commits a rebounding foul, and the two free throws extends the lead to 4 points. After another UK misses, and foul, Vandy converts the free throws to lead by 6 points with 25 seconds to play. The Cats Lose for the Second Time this year, 71-64, and will move to the NCAA Tournament 32-2.

Analysis:

UK scored its 64 points in 65 possessions [0.985 ppp] for the game, and VANDERBILT scored its 71 points on 64 possessions [1.109 ppp].

Vanderbilt won the battle of the boards, 40-37, but Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 15-12. Kentucky won the second chance points battle 19-18. VANDERBILT had an offensive efficiency of 0.828 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 1.500 ppp for its 12-second chance possessions. UK had 0.692 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 1.267 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a weak 34.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while VANDERBILT was able to convert 35.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game by making 12-19 [63.2%]. VANDERBILT made 21-32 [65.6%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 23-64 overall [35.9%] and 6-28 from long range [21.4%]. For VANDERBILT, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a strong 16-33 [48.5%] and from long range, VANDERBILT hit 6-18 [33.3%].

The Cats committed 8 turnovers, one for every 8.1 possessions. The Cats forced 11 VANDERBILT turnovers, one for every 5.8 possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 9 point UK win, 73-64 at a pace of 67 possessions for UK and 67 possessions for VANDERBILT. The final score was 64 (74) to 71 (64) at a pace of 65 possessions for the Cats and 64 possessions for VANDERBILT. The Cats' offensive efficiency was 0.985 ppp (D+) and the Cats' defensive efficiency was 1.109 ppp (D-).

Next Game On Schedule: Either Thursday or Friday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament which will be announced Sunday evening.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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