2012 v 2015 Comparison

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2014-15 Season Analytical Writings

27A
How Does 2015 Compare To 2012 Against Similar Opponents?

The best comparison I can provide is to compare the predicted and actual efficiencies of the two teams against top 50 opponents and all other opponents. The 2012 team played 16 games against top 50 opponents and 24 against teams not in the top 50. Through 24 games this season, the team has faced 12 top 50 opponents and 12 opponents outside the top 50.

All of the reported efficiencies are unadjusted, but the grouping of the results by top 50 and over 50 eliminates schedule strength as a variable to a large extent, and the two UK teams played a similar mix of games at home, on the road, and at neutral sites.

The 2012 team posted an average Net Game Efficiency (NGE) against top 50 opponents of 0.1224 points per possession. Against teams outside the top 50, the team's NGE was 0.3302 ppp. The 0.1224 ppp NGE against Top 50 opponents outperformed the predicted average of 0.1111 ppp, and the 0.3302 ppp NGE against Over 50 opponents outperformed the predicted average of 0..3270 ppp.

2011-12

2014-15

The 2015 team posted an average Net Game Efficiency (NGE) against top 50 opponents of 0.2213 points per possession. Against teams outside the top 50, the team's NGE was 0.4324 ppp. Overall, the 0.2213 ppp NGE against Top 50 opponents outperformed the predicted average of 0.2061 ppp, and the 0.4324 ppp NGE against Over 50 opponents outperformed the predicted average of 0.4167 ppp,.

The 2012 team finished with an offensive efficiency against Top 50 opponents of 1.142 ppp while the 2015 team, thus far, has an average offensive efficiency against Top 50 opponents of 1.120 ppp. Against the Over 50 opponents, the 2012 team's offensive efficiency was 1.176 ppp while the 2015 team's offensive efficiency has been 1.155 ppp.

The 2012 team finished with an defensive efficiency against Top 50 opponents of 1.020 ppp while the 2015 team, thus far, has an average defensive efficiency against Top 50 opponents of 0.895 ppp. Against the Over 50 opponents, the 2012 team's defensive efficiency was 0.854 ppp while the 2015 team's defensive efficiency has been 0.722 ppp.

In summary, the 2012 team is marginally stronger than this 2015 team, but on defense, the 2015 team is significantly stronger. These relationships are true for the top 50 and over 50 subsets. When taken together, the 2015 team's NGE is significantly higher than the 2012 team's NGE.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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