Probability of Winning Out From 26-0

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2014-15 Season Analytical Writings

29A
PROBABILITY OF WINNING OUT FROM 26-0

I would like the 25% odds recently reported by ESPN for the Cats to run the table to 40-0 and win the Championship undefeated if I could only agree with them. There are 5 regular season games left, 3 SEC Tournament games left, and 6 NCAA Tournament games left. We all know this. The question is what are the probabilities of winning them all.

The table shows how I see the tournaments playing out. The specific opponent is not intended to show who I believe UK will play in each round but the quality of team UK is likely to face in each round. For the SEC Tournament, the teams are the SEC 8th, 4th, and 2nd ranked team based on Adjusted NGE. For the NCAA Tournament, the teams are the 3rd lowest ranked minor conference leader, and the teams currently ranked 32, 16, 8, 4, and 2 according to adjusted NGE. The probability of UK winning is computed based on my database of probabilities developed over many years.

The probability of winning all the games is the product of the probabilities of each individual game (Pr1 x Pr2 x ... x Prn)

The probability of UK finishing the regular season undefeated is 66.7%, and getting through the SECT undefeated drops to 44.3%. The probability of running the table, the entire final 14 games is only 7.3%. The probability of simply running the table through the 6 NCAA T games is 16.6%.

These are what I believe the odds really are. I have no idea how ESPN arrived at their reported value, but I believe it is wrong.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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