31 MISSOURI

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2016-17 Season Analytical Writings

31
Cats Stay On Road At Missouri

On Saturday evening, the Cats entered Georgia's Stegman Arena for what is usually a hard fought basketball battle with the Dawgs. The Cats have won 4 of 6 games in Athens during the Calipari Era, but most of these games have been undecided at the final media timeout of the game. Saturday's game played out according to this script again.

After 14 SEC games, the Cats and the Gators stand tied, 12-2, with four games remaining on the regular schedule. The Gators hold the 22 point beat down of the Cats in Gainesville to their credit with losses to Vanderbilt and at South Carolina. The Cats add a loss at Tennessee to the Gator beat down. The Gators are scheduled to appear in Rupp Arena next Saturday for the game that will determine the 2017 SEC regular season champion. Prior to that conference championship showdown, the Gators host South Carolina and the Cats travel to Missouri.

MISSOURI enters this game with a 7-19; 2-12 record. Missouri opened their season with 5 wins in their first 8 games, but their best win in this stretch of games was a 3 point win over #242 Western Kentucky. The Tigers then lost 13 in a row between December 10 and February 2. Missouri ended their losing streak with a 5-point win over #50 Arkansas at home, and followed up that home win with a 20-point win over #56 Vanderbilt at home. MISSOURI enters this game with an ANE of 0.013 points per possession against a strength of schedule of 0.0513 ppp (#69). The Cats enter this game with an ANE of 0.296 ppp against a strength of schedule of 0.0915 ppp (#27). The ANE analysis indicates a Kentucky win by 15 points, 81-66 at apace of 75 possessions. This would produce game efficiencies of 1.079 ppp and 0.879 ppp. Pomeroy sees this game in Kentucky's favor by 17 points 85-68 at a pace of 74 possessions, and Vegas has opened with the Cats favored by 16 ½.

Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2016-17DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/28_Predictions.png

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:

http://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/Missouri-Prediction-Thread-51367494

Game Summary:

For the fifth consecutive game, and the 20 th game this season, Coach Calipari will start Edrice (BAM) Adebayo, Wenyen Gabriel, De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, and Isaiah Briscoe.

Kentucky controls the opening tip and Wenyen Gabriel misses the Cats' first shot of the game. Missouri scores on its first possession, and following a Kentucky turnover, go on top 4-0. A 3 pointer by Malik Monk from the left corner lifts the Cats into their first lead of the game, 8-7, at the under 16 media timeout. In the second segment, the Cats move on top by 3 points, 10-7, but cannot build on the lead and finish the segment with a 2 point lead, 17-15 at the under 12 media timeout. In the first 8 minutes, the Cats have missed 4 times from the floor and twice from the line, but have not been able to secure an offensive rebound. The Tigers have 2 offensive rebounds and 2 second chance points. In the third segment, the Cats moved on top by a game high 5 points, 20-15, on a baseline drive by Isaiah Briscoe. However, Missouri answered quickly with a 3 pointer, and the Cats continue to cling to a 2 point lead, 22-20, at the under 8 media timeout. Edrice (BAM) Adebayo will have free throws after the timeout.

In the fourth segment, the Cats go cold and the Tigers get hot, making 3 of 5 shots compared to 1 of 6 for the Cats, and the Tigers move back on top by 4, 28-24. Coach Calipari takes a timeout with 4:27 remaining in the first half. Missouri has made 3 of 10 from outside the arc, and 12 of 26 overall while the Cats are 2-7 from long range, and 10-21 overall, accounting for the scoring deficit that exists. Missouri is out rebounding the Cats, and the Cats have committed 7 turnovers to only 4 for the Tigers. This is a bottom dweller of the SEC that is beating the Cats tonight.

In the final segment, the Cats manage to claw back into the lead, 31-30, at the half.

The Cats scored 31 points on 38 possessions, 0.816 points per possession, and MISSOURI managed their 30 points on 37 possessions, 0.811 ppp. The Cats made 44.0% (11-25) of their first half shots, including 3-9 (33.3%) from outside the arc. MISSOURI managed to make 41.9% (13-31) of their first half shots, including 3-12 (25.0%) from outside the arc.

The Cats made 6-12 free throws (50.0%) and MISSOURI made 1-5 (20.0%) in the first half.

The Cats committed 9 turnovers while forcing MISSOURI to commit 6.

On the Boards, Missouri won the battle of the boards, 19-18 in the first half, and the Tigers earned a 3-2 advantage on the offensive rebounds, earning a 2-1 advantage on second chance points. The Cats secured 11.1% of their misses and allowed MISSOURI to grab 15.0% of their misses as second chance opportunities.

Second Half:

MISSOURI opens the second half with an empty trip, and Edrice (BAM) Adebayo gets fouled going to the basket and converts both of his free throws. Edrice (BAM) Adebayo makes another basket, and then makes another pair of free throws to lift the Cats to a game high 7 point lead, 37-30. Missouri stops the Cats' 6-0 run with a 3 point play. The Cats lead by 4, 37-33, at the under 16 media timeout, and the Cats have the ball. In the second segment, the Cats maintain a lead of 4 to 6 points, and lead by 6, 45-39, at the under 12 media timeout. However, Missouri will have a pair of free throws after the timeout.

In the third segment, the teams played on even terms and the Cats are holding on to a 4 point lead, 52-48 at the under 8 media timeout. Missouri has the ball. During the timeout, Coach Calipari is tagged with a technical foul, and Missouri makes both technical free throws. Then Missouri scores on the in bounds play to tie the score, 52-52 with 7:42 remaining. De'Aaron Fox went to the floor after the play and has to leave the game. A four point trip out of the timeout ties the game. The Cats went into Edrice (BAM) Adebayo, and he scored while being fouled, sending Nico to the bench with his 5 th foul. Edrice (BAM) Adebayo completes the 3 point play from the line. De'Aaron Fox returns to the game with 6:17 remaining. A three pointer by Wenyen Gabriel gave the Cats their biggest lead, 8 points, 60-52. The Cats lead by 6, 63-57, at the under 4 media timeout, and Dominique Hawkins will have a pair of free throws after the break.

Dominique Hawkins makes one of two, and Isaiah Briscoe fouls out with 2:34 remaining in the game. Missouri makes 1 of 2 free throws. A layup by De'Aaron Fox and a dunk by Derek Willis give the Cats their first double digit lead of the game, 68-58, with 1:40 left, and Missouri takes a timeout. After a pair of free throws cut the lead to 8 points, Missouri uses its last timeout with 0:57 remaining in the game. Cats win by 10, 72-62.

Analysis:

UK scored its 72 points on 73 possessions (0.986 ppp) for the game, and MISSOURI scored its 62 points on 73 possessions (0.849 ppp).

Kentucky won the battle of the boards 44-31, and the Cats won the battle of the offensive glass 10-7. Kentucky used its 10 second chance possessions to score 11 second chance points, and MISSOURI used its 7 second chance possessions to score 5 second chance points. MISSOURI had an offensive efficiency of 0.781 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 0.714 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 0.836 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 1.100 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 29.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISSOURI was able to convert 17.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 19-28 [67.9%]. MISSOURI made 14-23 [60.9%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-52 overall [46.2%] and 5-18 from long range [27.8%]. For MISSOURI , their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 18-38 [47.4%] and from long range, MISSOURI hit 4-22 [18.2%].

The Cats committed 17 turnovers, one for every 4.3 possessions. The Cats forced 9 MISSOURI turnovers, one for every 8.1 possessions.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon, February 25, 2017 at 2:00 pm at Rupp against Florida for the SEC Regular Season Championship and the #1 Seed in the SEC Tournament, in the 29 th regular season game and 16 th SEC of the 2016-17 season.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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