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2016-17 Season Analytical Writings
The post season has arrived, and the Cats will open their defense of the SEC Tournament Championship as the #1 seed on Friday at 1 pm. By virtue of their 2 point win over Tennessee today in the Tournament's second round, the Cats' opponent will be Georgia. This same Georgia team all but had the Cats beat at Rupp Arena earlier this season. However, the Cats survived because Malik Monk drained a corner jump shot at the end of regulation, to extend the Cats into an overtime. In a more recent rematch in Athens, the Cats escaped with a thin victory despite trailing for much of the game.
Now these teams square off for a third time, in the quarterfinal round of the SEC Tournament.
GEORGIA enters this game with a 19-13; 9-9 SEC regular season record and a winner over Tennessee in today's second round 8-9 matchup. Georgia has won six of its last eight games, losing only to the Cats by 5 and at #39 Arkansas by 18.
GEORGIA enters this game with an ANE of 0.129 points per possession against strength of schedule of 0.1072 ppp (#19). The Cats enter this game with an ANE of 0.289 ppp against strength of schedule of 0.0955 ppp (#28). The ANE analysis indicates a Kentucky win by 13 points, 79-66, at apace of 72 possessions. This would produce game efficiencies of 1.092 ppp and 0.912 ppp. Pomeroy sees this game in Kentucky's favor by 10 points 80-70 at a pace of 71 possessions. Vegas opened favoring the Cats by 10 points.
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Coach Calipari will open the Cats hunt for their 30 th SEC Tournament Championship to post along with their 48 th regular season SEC Championship with the lineup that has by and large gotten this team positioned with the #1 tournament seed. The starters are Edrice (BAM) Adebayo, Derek Willis, Malik Monk, Isaiah Briscoe, and De'Aaron Fox.
Georgia controls the opening tip and fail to get a shot off before the shot clock expires. The Cats also have a scoreless possession, but draw first blood following a second Georgia turnover on as many possessions on a lob dunk from Malik Monk to Edrice (BAM) Adebayo. Derek Willis and De'Aaron Fox add 3 pointers to propel the Cats to an early 8-2 lead at the under 16 media timeout. In the second segment, De'Aaron Fox extends the lead to 8 on a layup. However, Georgia scores the next 3 points on a free throw and a lay up to trim the lead to 5. The Cats close the scoring for the segment with a pair of free throws following an offensive rebound, and a put back basket by Isaiah Briscoe to extend the Cats' lead to 9, 14-5, at the under 12 media timeout.
In the third segment, the Cats only hit 3 of their 8 shots, but managed to maintain their 9 point lead, 21-12, at the under 8 media timeout. After the timeout, De'Aaron Fox will have a pair of free throws and an opportunity to give Kentucky its first double digit lead of the game. De'Aaron Fox missed the first and made the second. The Cats move on top by 13 when Mychal Mulder drains his first 3 point attempt, but Georgia claws back to within 9, 27-18, at the under 4 media timeout. Edrice (BAM) Adebayo will be on the line for free throws after the break. He made his first. With 2:04 remaining, Edrice (BAM) Adebayo joined De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk on the bench, each with 2 fouls. Georgia takes advantage of the Cats' foul trouble to cut the lead to 6, 28-22, with 1:23 remaining. Coach Calipari takes a timeout. Cats close the half with a pair of baskets by Isaiah Briscoe to send the Cats to the locker room up by 7, 32-25.
The Cats scored 32 points on 35 possessions, 0.914 points per possession, and GEORGIA managed their 25 points on 35 possessions, 0.714 ppp. The Cats made 36.4% (12-33) of their first half shots, including 4-8 (50.0%) from outside the arc. GEORGIA managed to make 30.0% (9-30) of their first half shots, including 1-8 (12.5%) from outside the arc.
The Cats made 4-6 free throws (66.7%) and GEORGIA made 6-9 (66.7%) in the first half.
The Cats committed 6 turnovers while forcing GEORGIA to commit 7.
On the Boards, Kentucky won the battle of the boards, 23-21 in the first half, and the Cats earned a 7-6 advantage on the offensive rebounds, but the Dawgs hold an 8-6 advantage on second chance points. The Cats secured 31.8% of their misses and allowed GEORGIA to grab 27.3% of their misses as second chance opportunities.
Kentucky opens the second half with De'Aaron Fox scoring on a lay up. Following a steal by Isaiah Briscoe, Isaiah Briscoe hits a 3 pointer from the top of the key. Then following a Georgia miss, De'Aaron Fox makes 1 of 2 from the line to move the Cats out to the 13 point lead they held briefly in the first half. After Georgia makes a pair of free throws, Georgia takes a timeout, down 11, with 17:57 remaining in the game. At the under 16 media timeout, the Cats lead stands at 13, 40-27. In the third segment, the Cats extend their lead to a game high 17, 47-30.
The cats move on top by 18 points, 50-32 on a put back slam by Edrice (BAM) Adebayo, but Georgia converts 1 of 2 free throws and their second 3 pointer of the game to trim the lead back to 14, 50-36 with 9:08 remaining. Georgia takes a timeout. Following another Kentucky miss, Georgia hits another 3 pointer to trim the lead to 11. Isaiah Briscoe stops the Georgia run with a layup, giving the Cats a 13 point lead, 52-39, at the under 8 media timeout with 7:25 to play in the game. At the under 4 media timeout, the Cats continue to lead by 13, 60-47. Cats win 71-60.
UK scored its 71 points on 72 possessions (0.986 ppp) for the game, and GEORGIA scored its 60 points on 71 possessions (0.845 ppp).
Kentucky and Georgia each grabbed 42 total rebounds, and Kentucky won on the offensive end 13-11. Kentucky used its 13 second chance possessions to score 15 second chance points, and GEORGIA used its 11 second chance possessions to score 18 second chance points. GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.592 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 1.636 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had 0.778 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 1.154 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 29.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA was able to convert 27.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 20-33 [60.6%]. GEORGIA made 17-26 [65.4%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 23-60 overall [38.3%] and 5-15 from long range [33.3%]. For GEORGIA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 19-57 [33.3%] and from long range, GEORGIA hit 5-16 [31.3%].
The Cats committed 10 turnovers, one for every 7.2 possessions. The Cats forced 13 GEORGIA turnovers, one for every 5.5 possessions.
Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon, March 11, 2017 at 1:00 pm in the semi-final round of the SEC Tournament in Nashville. The Opponent will be the winner of Friday afternoon's game between the South Carolina and Alabama.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Submitted by Richard Cheeks