12 GAME 07 ILLINOIS-CHICAGO

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12
Cats Face University of Illinois-Chicago at Rupp

On Wednesday night, the Cats handled Fort Wayne with more ease than has been common this season, building a 30 point lead with only 6:50 remaining in the game. Then, old habits that are dying hard resurfaced, and the Cats allowed Fort Wayne to close the game on a 20-9 run to trim the margin from 30 to 19 at the buzzer. Nick Richards emerged in the game as a player that can control the boards and score on the interior, posting 25 points and 15 rebounds in his 26 minutes of action. Perhaps this is a baby step forward for this team, and others will want to immolate Nick's growth.

Tonight, the Cats will entertain Illinois-Chicago at Rupp Arena in the seventh game of this season. Illinois-Chicago will enter the game as the #171 rated team at Pomeroy. Last year, Illinois-Chicago finished 17-19, and the Flames have not had a winning record since 2013 when they finished 18-16. This season, Illinois-Chicago has started their season 2-2 with wins over #294 North Carolina Central by 10 and at #348 Delaware State by 40. The Flames lost to #72 Saint Joseph's by 4 in OT and to the Cats' last opponent, Fort Wayne by 16 last Saturday. The Flames have played all 4 of their games at home, so tonight's appearance at Rup will be their first road game of the year.

The Adjusted Net Efficiency (ANE) analysis for this match up, based on early season experience for each team, indicates a 15 point Kentucky win over Illinois-Chicago in a game played at 79 possessions, 85-70. Pomeroy sees this game with Kentucky having a 21-point advantage, 84-63 played at a pace of 73 possessions.

See how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board at:

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2017-18DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/07_Predictions.png

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:

https://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/Illinois-Chicago-Prediction-Thread-110926492

Game Summary:

Coach Calipari will start Nick Richards, Kevin Knox, PJ Washington, Quade Green, and Hamidou Diallo in the starting lineup for the sixth game in a row. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Sacha Killeya-Jones, Wenyen Gabriel, and Tai Wynyard will provide the primary bench help. Jarred Vanderbilt remains unavailable as the season opens.

The Cats control the opening tip and get a lob to Hamidou Diallo for the game's first score. UIC responds with a 3 pointer from the left corner. The Cats move back on top with a lob to Nick Richards. Over the balance of the opening segment, the Cats ride 5-7 shooting to build an early 5 point lead, 12-7, at the under 16 media timeout. In the second segment, the Cats made 5 of 8 shots and extended their early lead from 5 to 13 points, 24-11, at the under 12 media timeout. The early pace of this game is about 80 possessions, the fastest start of the season for this team. The Cats have scored 24 points on 17 possessions while only allowed 11 points on 16 possessions (RNE=0.725 ppp).

After the timeout, UIC works for a 3 point shot from the right corner to trim the lead back to 10 points. However, the Cats score 6 quick points, and UIC takes a timeout with 10:10 remaining in the half, down 30-14. Over the balance of the segment, the Cats lead drops by 2 points, to 14, 32-18, at the under 8 media timeout. In the 4 th segment, the Cats extended the lead to 17, 40-23, but UIC began to get offensive rebounds and second chance points, trimming the lead to 13, 42-29, forcing Coach Calipari to take a timeout with 3:13 left in the first half.

The Cats finish the half with a 17 point lead, 52-35.

The Cats scored 52 points on 39 possessions, 1.333 points per possession, and ILLINOIS-CHICAGO managed their 35 points on 39 possessions, 0.897 ppp. The Cats made 66.7% of their first half shots, including 1-5 from outside the arc. ILLINOIS-CHICAGO managed to make 41.4% of their first half shots, including 3-11 from outside the arc.

The Cats committed 8 turnovers in the first half while Illinois-Chicago committed 12 turnovers.

The Cats made 11-14 free throws (78.6%) and ILLINOIS-CHICAGO was 8-10 (80.0%) from the line in the first half.

On the Boards, the Cats controlled the boards with a 17-14 advantage, but UIC won the battle on the offensive glass 6-5. The Cats used their 5 offensive rebounds to score 8 second chance points while the Flames used its 6 offensive rebounds for 6 second chance points. The Cats secured 38.5% of their misses and allowed ILLINOIS-CHICAGO to grab 33.3% of their misses as second chance opportunities.

Second Half:

UIC opens play in the second half and commit a clock shot violation. However, the teams play the first segment of the second half on even terms, as the Cats maintain their 17 point lead, 62-45 at the under 16 media timeout. In the second segment, the Cats extend their lead to 22 points, 74-52 at the under 12 media timeout, and PJ Washington will be at the line to complete a 3 point play after the break.

In the third segment, the Cats built the lead to 29 points, 83-54. After UIC makes a 3 pointer to trim the lead to 16, UIC takes a timeout with 9:44 remaining in the game. At the end of the third segment, the Cats lead by 29, 88-59, at the under 8 media timeout.

In the last two games, the Cats built respectable leads to the under 8 timeout, or slightly beyond only to allow opponents to outscore them by 9 to 13 points down the stretch. This is this team's danger zone, and the question is whether they will expand their lead tonight. At the under 4 media timeout, the Cats have extended their lead to 38 points, 101-63 at the under 4 media timeout, and the Cats have the ball after the break.

Coach Calipari starts emptying his bench with slightly more than 2 minutes remaining.

Cats win by 34, 107-73.

Analysis:

UK scored its 107 points on 80 possessions (1.338 ppp) for the game, and ILLINOIS-CHICAGO scored its 73 points on 81 possessions (0.901 ppp).

Kentucky won the battle of the boards, with a rebounding edge 37-33, but UIC won the battle of the offensive glass 15-10. Kentucky used its 10 second chance possessions to score 15 second chance points, and ILLINOIS-CHICAGO used its 15 second chance possessions to score 14 second chance points. ILLINOIS-CHICAGO had an offensive efficiency of 0.728 ppp on its 81 first chance possessions and 0.933 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had 1.150 ppp on its 80 first chance possessions and 1.500 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 35.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ILLINOIS-CHICAGO was able to convert 35.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 19-28 [67.9%]. ILLINOIS-CHICAGO made 16-24 [66.7%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 42-63 overall [66.7%] and 4-12 from long range [33.3%]. For ILLINOIS-CHICAGO, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a strong 21-46 [45.7%] and from long range, ILLINOIS-CHICAGO hit 5-18 [27.8%].

The Cats committed 15 turnovers, one for every 5.3 possessions. The Cats forced 21 ILLINOIS-CHICAGO turnovers, one for every 3.9 possessions.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon at Rupp Arena against Harvard for the eighth regular season game of the 2017-18 season.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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