25A IS SEC STRONGER IN 2018?

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25A
Is The SEC Stronger In 2018 Than 2017?

Since mid-November 2017, the chatter has consistently pointed to a much stronger SEC in 2018 than recent years. Some have cited, with a level of surprise, that all SEC teams are ranked in the top 100 by adjusted net efficiency (ANE), which is indeed still the case with Vanderbilt hanging on to the #92 spot (ANE). However, Vanderbilt has fallen from the top 100 on Pomeroy's list, to #102 in recent days.

Is the SEC really stronger in 2018 than it has been? I have taken a look at the current strength of the SEC in 2018 and the final strength of the SEC in 2017, and the answers are:

• The average and median ANE of SEC teams are up.

• The SEC is weaker at the very top in 2018 than in 2017, and

• The SEC is stronger from the 4 th position to the bottom of the league.

The following graph provides the distribution of ANE values from top to bottom for the SEC in 2017 (Blue) and 2018 (Red).

Last season, the SEC had five teams in the NCAA tournament, and one of them (South Carolina) advanced to the Final Four. The ANE of these five NCAA teams ranged from a high of 0.288 (Kentucky) to 0.156 ppp (Arkansas). Tennessee was the best SEC team not invited to play with an ANE of 0.131 ppp. This year, the SEC has seven teams with ANE values greater than the 0.156 ppp minimum that earned entry into the NCAA Tournament, and the 8 th team has an ANE between the 0.156 minimum entry level value and 0.131 ppp maximum not in value.

That is the good news.

At the high end of the SEC in 2018, the highest ANE values are held by Tennessee (0.225 ppp) and Auburn (0.221 ppp). Last season, South Carolina's 0.212 ppp ANE earned a 7 Seed into the big dance. Therefore, the best the SEC has to offer in 2018 are probably in line for seeds outside the top 16 seeds (all targeted for first weekend exits without upsetting better-seeded teams). Make no mistake, that does not foreclose an SEC team from making a deep run into the tournament like South Carolina did in 2017, or Kentucky did under similar circumstances in 2014. Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida have all demonstrated an ability to compete at very high levels thus far this season. However, the current strength of the SEC at the high end corresponds to less likelihood of that occurring this season.

That is the bad news.

Which teams have improved from last season most, and similarly, which teams have fallen off from their 2017 strength? The following Table provides the rank and ANE values for each team in 2017 and 2018, sorted on current strength (ANE).

Tennessee (0.094 ppp), Auburn (0.142 ppp), Texas A&M (0.071 ppp), Missouri (0.163 ppp), and LSU (0.163 ppp) have improved their 2018 ANE from 2017 by 0.05 ppp or more. On the other side of the coin, Florida (-0.090 ppp), Kentucky (-0.115 ppp), South Carolina (-0.103 ppp), and Vanderbilt (-0.079 ppp) have declined from their 2017 ANE values by -0.05 ppp or more. The remaining five teams are playing at about the same level of strength in 2018 as they did in 2017.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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