09 MONMOUTH AT RUPP IN GAME 07

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2018-19 Season Analytical Writings

09
The Get Their Last Cupcake of the Season against Monmouth

On Wednesday night, Kentucky will face Monmouth in their seventh game of the season, which will be their last game for the month of the cupcakes. Yes, I do recall that the season began in very early November against Duke, but since Duke, the UK opponents have been:

#147 Southern Illinois, 0.030 ppp

#269 North Dakota, -0.107 ppp

#292 VMI, -0.136 ppp

#155 Winthrop, 0.022 ppp

#274 Tennessee State, -0.116 ppp

And, next up #313 Monmouth with an ANE of -0.174 ppp. Kentucky's cumulative performance through these first 6 games produces an ANE of 0.085 points per possession, sufficient for a #94 ranking.

During the month of December, the level of competition rises significantly with #53 North Carolina Greensboro, #68 Seton Hall, #130 Utah, #9 North Carolina, and #45 Louisville. Four of the five December opponents have better ANE values at this point of the season than UK. Therefore, Monmouth represents the last cupcake of the 2018-19 season.

Monmouth enters Rupp without a win in their first seven games this season. As noted above, Monmouth's ANE is -0.174 ppp, playing at a pace ofThis produces an early season ANE of -0.158 ppp at an average pace of almost 71 possessions per game. In contrast, the #94 Cats bring an ANE of 0.084 ppp at an average pace of 73 to 74 possessions per game.

The ANE analysis indicates a Kentucky win by 24 points, 90-66, in a game played at a pace of 74 possessions. Pomeroy projects a 23 point Kentucky win over Monmouth, 85-62, at a pace of about 71 possessions. Vegas has opened with the Cats favored by 24 points. For the reasons identified above, the primary focus on this game against Tennessee State is whether the final margin is 20 or less, or 30 or more at the final buzzer.

See how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board at:

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2018-19DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/07.htm

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:

https://247sports.com/college/kentucky/Board/296/Contents/Monmouth-Prediction-Thread-125182654/

Game Summary:

Coach Calipari replaces Nick Richards in the starting lineup of Reid Travis who joins PJ Washington, Keldon Johnson, Immanuel Quickley, and Tyler Herro to start the 7 th game of this season. Ashton Hagans, Nick Richards, E. J. Montgomery, and Quade Green will come off the bench. Jemarl Baker remains unavailable with knee issues.

Kentucky controls the opening tip and Reid Travis draws a foul near the end of the initial shot clock for a pair of free throws. After the teams trade scores to a 6-6 tie, the Cats go on an 11-0 run on the strength of three 3 point baskets and a layup off a steal to a 17-6 lead. Monmouth takes a timeout with 13:53 left in the half to regroup. After the timeout, the Hawks stop the run with a pair of free throws, and pull to within 8 points at the under 12 media timeout, 20-12.

In the third segment, Monmouth trimmed the 12 point lead to only 6 points, 24-18, but the Cats scored the last 5 points of the segment to extend their lead to 11 points, 29-18, at the under 8 media timeout with 7:10 left on the clock. In the fourth segment, the Cats extended their lead to 19 points, 39-20, and Monmouth takes their second timeout with 3:26 remaining to try to stem the Cats' run.

During the timeout, Nick Richards makes his first appearance, and on Monmouth's first possession, Nick Richards draws a charging foul.

Cats lead by 22, 44-22, at the half.

The Cats scored 44 points on 35 possessions, 1.257 points per possession, and MONMOUTH managed their 22 points on 34 possessions, 0.647 ppp. The Cats made 50.0% of their first half shots, including 6-15 from outside the arc. MONMOUTH managed to make 33.3% of their first half shots, including 0-4 from outside the arc.

The Cats made 10-12 free throws (83.3%) and MONMOUTH managed to make 4-7 free throws (57.1%).

On the Boards, the Cats controlled the glass 20-12 overall, and each team grabbed 7 offensive rebounds. MONMOUTH used its second chance possessions to outscore the Cats 10-9 on second chance points. The Cats secured 58.3% of their misses and allowed MONMOUTH to grab 35.0% of their misses as second chance opportunities.

Second Half:

MONMOUTH opens the second half with turnover, their 11 th of the game. The Cats score on their first two possessions to extend their lead to 26 points. Monmouth burns its 3 rd timeout with 18:13 left in the game. Over the balance of the opening segment, the Cats extend their lead to 28 points, 54-26 at the under 16 media timeout, and PJ Washington will have a free throw and a chance to complete a 3 point play after the timeout. PJ Washington completes the 3 point play to extend the Cats' lead to 29. In the second segment, the Cats build on that lead to 32 points, 63-31, at the under 12 media timeout.

In the third segment, the Cats extended their lead to a game high 35 points, 69-34 at the under 8 media timeout. In addition, Quade Green will be at the line for a pair of free throws after the timeout. In the fourth segment, the Cats extend their lead to 43 points, 82-39, and the Cats will have a pair of free throws after this final media timeout with an opportunity to add another 2 points to the lead.

Cats win 90-44.

Analysis:

UK scored its 90 points on 68 possessions (1.323 ppp) for the game, and MONMOUTH scored its 44 points on 70 possessions (0.629 ppp).

Kentucky won the battle of the boards, with a rebounding edge 40-25, and MONMOUTH won the battle of the offensive glass 13-9. MONMOUTH used its 13 second chance possessions to score 14 second chance points, and Kentucky used its 9 second chance possessions to 11 second chance points. MONMOUTH had an offensive efficiency of 0.429 ppp on its 70 first chance possessions and 1.077 ppp for its 13 second chance possessions. UK had 1.162 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.222 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 42.9%of its misses as offensive rebounds while MONMOUTH was able to convert 29.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 20-23 [87.0%]. MONMOUTH made 10-16 [62.5%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 30-53 overall [56.6%] and 10-24 from long range [41.7%]. For MONMOUTH, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 14-42 [33.3%] and from long range, MONMOUTH hit 2-16 [12.5%].

The Cats committed 14 turnovers, one for every 4.9 possessions. The Cats forced 16 MONMOUTH turnovers, one for every 4.4 possessions.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon, again at Rupp Arena, the Cats will take on North Carolina Greensboro in the eighth regular season game of the 2018-19 season.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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