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2018-19 Season Analytical Writings
When Joe B. Hall walked the sidelines, he called it the January slump. However, it is the reality of the SEC. When any UK team ventures into places like Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Baton Rouge, Oxford, and every other SEC member's arena, they do so with a huge target on their front and back. Nearly every SEC basketball program measures its entire season by a win over Kentucky.
This reality reared its ugly head once again when the Cats ventured into Tuscaloosa on Saturday to face a SEC opponent on the road for the first time this season.
In Coach Hall's era, this reality seemed to affect his team each year even though most of his rosters included experienced upperclassmen who had fought in the SEC wars in previous seasons. In the Calipari Era, this reality is one that every team must learn what it means to play in the opponents' Super Bowl every game. The learning process is more complicated because the vast majority of players on the Calipari roster are going into an SEC war for the first time ever. Even this year, with a graduate transfer, Kentucky playing against the SEC on the road is different from Stanford playing on the road in the PAC12. It just is.
Saturday, this reality smacked this team right between the eyes. I don't think the players ever really understood that even Alabama could hand them a loss, thus the true nature of the culture shock of the SEC. With Kentucky on your chest, it is real and it is severe.
I am confident that Coach Calipari tried to warn his SEC neophytes about the “super bowl” mentality that each SEC opponent will bring to these games. I am equally confident that the players either did not understand or believe the truth of the warning. Experience shows us that each Kentucky team must learn the lessons based on its own experience. Some UK teams have been a quick study and have only need one embarrassing loss like this one to learn this lesson. Other UK teams have needed several road losses in the SEC before they finally accept this reality and confront it as a champion does.
Will this team be a fast learner, or will it be SEC Challenged into late February?
Peeking ahead at the next 6 games, it is clear that UK may not deliver its real answer to this question until January 19 when the Cats must travel to Auburn. The next three games include two at Rupp against Texas A&M on Tuesday and Vanderbilt on Saturday. Then the Cats venture back on the road to face hapless Georgia, a 46-point victim to Tennessee this past Saturday. These 3 games will give this team about 11 days to get their act together before taking a real road trip to face #7 Auburn. I suppose that if the Cats fail to win all three of these games, then the issues with this team go way beyond a January slump due to the SEC culture shock noted above. Therefore, I expect this team to travel to Auburn in a couple of weeks with a 13-3, 3-1 record.
One game at a time is the mantra, and next up will be Texas A&M at Rupp on Tuesday.
Texas A&M enters this game with a 6-6 record. Texas A&M started their season on the skids, losing 4 of their first 5 games. Their only win came at the expense of #346 Savannah State, with losses to #91 UC Irvine, #3 Gonzaga, #59 Minnesota, and #73 Washington. The Aggies then won their next 5 games, but their opponents during this winning streak are ranked #343, #258, #195, #152, and #75 Oregon State, which gives the Aggies their most impressive win of the season. Texas A&M enter Rupp on Tuesday on a 2-game losing streak, falling to #180 Texas Southern by 15 and falling at home to #56 Arkansas by 2 in their SEC opener. The Aggies' schedule to date has been relatively weak, with a SOS value of -0.001 ppp (#171). Overall, #120 Texas A&M's ANE stands at 0.53 ppp, but over their last 5 games, the Aggies has improved to 0.101 ppp.
The Cats' schedule has been stronger, at 0.024 ppp (#97). The Cats' ANE for the season stands at 0.210 ppp and their ANE over the last 5 games is 0.330 ppp.
The ANE (Last 5 game basis) analysis indicates a UK margin of 24 points, 87-63, in a game played at a pace of 74 possessions. As a matter of record, the traditional ANE analysis indicates a 19-point Kentucky advantage (84-65). Pomeroy has this game as 13 points in Kentucky's favor, 79-66, at a pace of 69 possessions.
Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:
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Despite the loss at Alabama last Saturday, Coach Calipari stays with the starting lineup that delivered the previous 3 game winning streak. For tonight's game, Coach Calipari will start Ashton Hagans, Reid Travis, PJ Washington, Keldon Johnson, and Tyler Herro to start the 13 th game of this season. Immanuel Quickley, Nick Richards, E. J. Montgomery, and Jemarl Baker will come off the bench.
Texas A&M controls the opening tip and fail to score, but a Kentucky miss allows Texas A&M to get the first score of the game. A charge by PJ Washington allows Texas A&M to move on top 5-0. Another empty trip, and Texas A&M deepens the early hole to 7-0. A 4 th UK turnover, and the hole becomes 10-0. The Cats finally get a score with 15:30 left in the first half after an offensive rebound by Keldon Johnson. The Cats trail by 10, 12-2, at the under 16 media timeout.
After the timeout, UK forces an aggie turnover, and after back to back baskets by Nick Richards off assists by Ashton Hagans, the second a 3 point play, cuts the lead to 12-7. Following another aggie turnover, Keldon Johnson makes a pair of free throws to trim the lead to 3 points, but Nick Richards commits his second foul, and the lead eases back to 5 points. The Cats gets layups from Immanuel Quickley on back to back plays, one off a steal and the other off a blocked shot, to move into their first lead, 17-16, forcing a Texas A&M timeout with 10:45 left. In the third segment, the Cats extend their lead to 9 points, 27-18 to cap a 16-2 run.
With 6:12 left, Ashton Hagans stole the ball and Texas A&M fouled him on his way to the UK basket. Following the foul, which the officials initially called an intentional foul, a skirmish occurred between players, causing a stoppage of play. The officials added two technical fouls on Texas A&M and one on UK, and a flagrant 1 on the original foul. The net, UK 4 free throws, and the ball. On the following possession, the Cats score to lead by 14, 35-21. At the under 4 media timeout, the Cats lead by 14, 38-24, and have the ball.
Since the 0-10 start in the first 4 minutes, the Cats have outscored Texas A&M 38-14.
Cats finish the half with a 12 point lead, 46-34. In the final segment, Jemarl Baker made a rare 4 point play when he made a 3 pointer from the right corner and converted the free throw to complete the 4 point scoring play.
The Cats scored 46 points on 37 possessions, 1.243 points per possession, and TEXAS A&M managed their 34 points on 37 possessions, 0.919 ppp. The Cats made 48.3% of their first half shots, including 4-10 from outside the arc. TEXAS A&M managed to make 51.9% of their first half shots, including 4-8 from outside the arc.
The Cats made 14-16 free throws (87.5%) and TEXAS A&M made 2-2 (100.0%).
On the Boards, the Aggies controlled the glass 16-13 overall, and Kentucky and Texas A&M each grabbed 3 offensive rebounds. Kentucky scored the only 2 second chance points of the first half. The Cats secured 18.8% of their misses and allowed TEXAS A&M to grab 23.1% of their misses as second chance opportunities.
Kentucky opens the second half with a turnover, and Texas A&M responds a pair of free throws to trim the lead to 10 points, and following another UK turnover, Texas A&M cuts the lead to 8 points, At the under 16 media timeout, the Cats lead by 10 points, 54-44 and Texas A&M will have a free throw with a chance to complete a 3 point play and trim the lead to 9 points. In the second segment, the teams traded scores, with the Cats holding on to the 9 point lead, 60-51 at the under 12 media timeout.
After the timeout, a 3 pointer by Texas A&M cuts the lead to 6 points. In the third segment, Texas A&M rode 2-3 shooting from the arc to trim the lead to 5, 66-61 at the under 8 media timeout. A 3 point play after the break cuts the lead to 2 points, 66-64.
The Cats move back to a 14 point lead and have the ball for the final possession, but a shot clock violation gives the ball to Texas A&M with 0.8 seconds, and a buzzer beating 3 pointer from mid court caps off the scoring with the Cats winning by 11, 85-74.
UK scored its 85 points on 69 possessions (1.232 ppp) for the game, and TEXAS A&M scored its 74 points on 70 possessions (1.057 ppp).
Texas A&M won the battle of the boards, with a rebounding edge 29-28, and Texas A&M won the battle on the offensive glass 8-7. Texas A&M won the second chance point battle 8-6. TEXAS A&M had an offensive efficiency of 0.943 ppp on its 70 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had 1.145 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 0.857 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 24.8%o f its misses as offensive rebounds while TEXAS A&M was able to convert 27.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 21-23 [91.3%]. TEXAS A&M made 12-13 [92.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 29-56 overall [51.6%] and 6-18 from long range [33.3%]. For Texas A&M, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 19-39 [48.7%] and from long range, TEXAS A&M hit 8-17 [47.1%].
The Cats committed 12 turnovers, one for every 5.8 possessions. The Cats forced 19 TEXAS A&M turnovers, one for every 3.7 possessions.
Next Game On Schedule: Saturday evening at Rupp for the fifteenth regular season game, and third game of the 2019 SEC season against Vanderbilt.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Submitted by Richard Cheeks