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2018-19 Season Analytical Writings
35
Cats Start Their Journey For #9 Against Abilene Christian
These Cats played four games in the Bahamas in August, two exhibition games in late October, 13 non-conference games, mostly in November and December, the 18 game SEC schedule in January, February, and early March. This team made a cameo appearance at the SEC Tournament last week. Now, it all comes down to the annual basketball ritual of true “one and done” basketball in which 67 of the 68 participating teams will return home with a season ending loss. Only one team will return home with an intact winning streak to carry it through the coming protracted off season.
Kentucky has been that last team standing at the end of the road eight times, and every year the Big Blue Nation remains convinced that their Cats will do it again for the 9 th time until the actual count is nine, at which time the Big Blue Nation will begin its never-ending vigil for number 10. And so it goes year in and year out, and the Cats' 2019 March for #9 begins on Thursday night in Jacksonville, Florida.
Over the course of a season, fans, coaches and players may take a longer view rather than a singular focus upon the next opponent in its path. But, at this is the time of year, the focus must remain on one opponent, and one opponent only. It is “Survive and Advance” time! One stumble and it ends, the true meaning of “one and done.” For this reason, the only opponent that matters to this Kentucky team is Abilene Christian.
How does Kentucky match up with Abilene Christian University?
Both teams wear Blue and White and each claim Wildcats as their mascots. Both teams start this tournament with identical 27-6 records.
The similarities end there.
Kentucky posted its 27-6 record while playing the 22 nd toughest schedule in the country, including five top 5 opponents, 12 top 25 opponents, and 23 of Kentucky's 33 opponents have been top 100. Abilene Christian, on the other hand, played the 11 th weakest schedule in the country that included one top 100 opponent and twenty-nine (29) opponents with ANE rankings greater than #175. Furthermore, four Abilene Christian opponents were not even D1 teams. Therefore, the Abilene Christian W-L record against D1 opposition has been 23-6.
Furthermore, 2019 will be Kentucky's 58 th NCAA appearance in this tournament's 81-year history that began in 1939 and included much smaller fields for the for 40+ years. Kentucky is a NCAA Tournament mainstay. For Abilene Christian, 2019 will be the first time they have ever had the opportunity to perform in the big dance.
If Goliath can ever dodge one of David's rocks, this should be it.
The Cats' schedule has a SOS value of 0.1102 ppp (#22). The Cats' ANE for the season stands at 0.280 ppp, their season ANE since game 7 has been 0.324 ppp, and their ANE over the last 5 games is 0.292 ppp.
The ANE analysis based on Kentucky's ANE since game 7 indicates a Kentucky margin of 21 point, 83-62, in a game played at a pace of 68 possessions. As a matter of record, the traditional ANE analysis indicates an 18 ½ point Kentucky advantage and a “last 5” analysis indicates a Kentucky advantage of 18 ½ points. Pomeroy sees this as a 14 point advantage for Kentucky, 82-78, and Vegas gives Kentucky the edge by 21 ½ points.
Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:
http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2018-19DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/34.htm
You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:
Game Summary:
As soon as Reid Travis returns to action and it seems the Cats will be at full strength for the big dance, P J Washington comes up lame in a cast, and will not play tonight and his status moving forward is unclear. Coach Calipari must alter his starting lineup again, with E J Montgomery joining Reid Travis, Keldon Johnson, Tyler Herro, and Ashton Hagans. Nick Richards, Immanuel Quickley, and Jemarl Baker will provide reserve support from the bench.
Abilene Christian controls the opening tip and fails to score. The Cats run off the first 6 points of the game, forcing Abilene Christian to take a quick timeout. Abilene Christian did not get its first score until the Cats lead 8-0. The score is 8-3 at the under 16 media time out, and Keldon Johnson will be at the line for a pair of free throws. Keldon Johnson made the first and missed the second, but the 1 point was the beginning of another UK run, this one 9 points, to a 17-3 lead. Abilene Christian takes its second time out with 12:42 left in the first half. At the under 12 media time out, the Cats lead 18-3.
In the third segment, Abilene Christian began to settle into an offensive rhythm, and trimmed the UK lead to 12, 22-10, but the Cats closed the segment with two Reid Travis baskets to lead by 16, 26-10, at the under 8 media time out with 7:36 left in the first half. In the 4 th segment, the Cats maintained its 16 point lead, 28-12, at the under 4 media time out.
The Cats close the first half strong to take a 26 point lead, 39-13, to the locker room.
The Cats scored 39 points on 32 possessions, 1.212 points per possession, and ABILENE CHRISTIAN managed their 13 points on 33 possessions 0.394 ppp. The Cats made 60.0% of their first half shots, including 1-3 from outside the arc. ABILENE CHRISTIAN managed to make 19.2% of their first half shots, including 2-11 from outside the arc.
The Cats made 2-4 free throws (50.0%) and ABILENE CHRISTIAN was 1-3 (33.3%) from the line in the first half.
Kentucky committed 6 turnovers to 7 by the Abilene Christian.
On the Boards, the Cats won the glass 23-10 overall, and Kentucky won the offensive glass 6-2. Kentucky won the second chance points 9-0. The Cats secured 42.9% of their misses and allowed ABILENE CHRISTIAN to grab 10.5% of their misses as second chance opportunities.
Second Half:
Abilene Christian opens the second half and gets the first score of the second half off a turnover by Reid Travis. In a protracted opening segment, the Cats' 26 point halftime lead is trimmed to 23 points, 48-25 at the under 16 media time out with 13:29 left in the game. In the second segment, the Cats traded scores with Abilene Christian and maintain a lead of 27 points, 58-31, at the under 12 media time out with 9:38 left in the game.
In an abbreviated 3 rd segment, the Cats outscored Abilene Christian 5-0 to move out to a game high 32 point lead, 63-31 at the under 8 media time out with 7:49 left in the game. At the under 4 media time out, the Cats lead by 33, 74-41.
Cats win 79-44.
Analysis:
UK scored its 79 points on 63 possessions (1.254 ppp) for the game, and ABILENE CHRISTIAN scored its 44 points on 64 possessions (0.688 ppp).
Kentucky won the battle of the boards 44-17, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards with a rebounding edge 14-3. Kentucky also won the second chance points 19-2. ABILENE CHRISTIAN had an offensive efficiency of 0.656 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp for its 3 second chance possessions. UK had 0.952 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 1.357 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 50.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ABILENE CHRISTIAN was able to convert 9.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK made 15-19 (78.9%) from the free throw line in this game. ABILENE CHRISTIAN made 5-10 [50.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 30-56 overall [53.6%] and 4-14 from long range [28.6%]. For ABILENE CHRISTIAN, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 12-30 [40.0%] and from long range, ABILENE CHRISTIAN hit 5-23 [21.7%].
The Cats committed 12 turnovers, one for every 5.2 possessions. The Cats forced 9 ABILENE CHRISTIAN turnovers, one for every 7.1 possessions.
Next Game On Schedule: The Cats will play either Wofford or Seton Hall on Saturday in Jacksonville in the NCAA second round (round of 32).
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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