12 Cats Schedulre Gets Real for rest of 2019 Season

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2019-20 Season Analytical Writings

12
Cats Face Major College Opponents For Rest of Season

Only in college basketball can a Wildcat consume the sweet dessert before the appetizers and entre. Other than the season opener against Michigan State, all opponents that have marched into Rupp Arena since early November have been cupcakes. Starting Saturday, when Georgia Tech will enter Rupp Arena to face the Cats, and for the rest of the season, the opponents are members of the elite college basketball conferences.

Following Saturday's encounter with #130 Georgia Tech (ACC), the Cats will face #57 Utah (PAC 12), #1 Ohio State (Big 10), and #8 Louisville (ACC) before the football Cats will appear in the Belk Bowl against Virginia Tech. Then, the Basketball Cats move into SEC competition with a trip to Lubbock, Texas to face #36 Texas Tech. There are no more cupcakes on the menu for the 2019-20 Wildcats. It is now time to put a best foot forward.

#130 Georgia Tech (GT) has played seven games with a 4-3 record that includes 1-1 in early ACC play. The Yellow Jackets most impressive early win was at #53 N C State and Tech's three losses have been at #86 Georgia by 4, against #22 Arkansas by 1 in OT, and against #41 Syracuse by 34 points the past Saturday. Georgia Tech enters this game with an ANE of 0.042 ppp against a schedule strength of 0.033 ppp.

The Cats bring a 7-1 records into this game with an ANE of 0.164 ppp against a schedule strength of -0.080 ppp.

Based on this data for these teams, an ANE analysis indicates this game will have a tempo of 73 possessions with the Cats prevailing by 13 points, 75-62.

It is intuitively clear than not all 13-point wins are created equal. The quality of any win depends upon the final margin, the strength of the opponent, and the venue of the game.

The table provides tools to evaluate this game's final margin considering the relevant factors. This table separates game outcomes into three ranges, red, tan, and green. Over the years, Calipari's strongest teams win most of their games on the season in the green range and the fewest number of games end in the red range. Conversely, Calipari's weakest teams win most of their games in the red and fewest in the green ranges. move the game into the strong group while smaller margins move the game into the poor range.

Game Summary:

Coach Calipari has not indicated when Dontaie Allen will be available for action in games but has indicated that he is behind with conditioning. Calipari starts Immanuel Quickley, Tyrese Maxey, Ashton Hagans, E. J. Montgomery, and Nick Richards. Kahlil Whitney, Johnny Juzang, Keino Brooks, and Dontaie Allen will come off the bench tonight. Nate Sestina remains on the injured reserve list with his broken wrist.

Georgia Tech controls the opening tip but the Cats score the first 5 points of the game on a 3 pointer by Immanuel Quickley and a basket. The Cats lead by 4, 7-3, at the under 16 media timeout. In the second segment, Georgia Tech moved on top by 3 points, 12-9, behind 3-3 shooting from the arc and at the under 12 media timeout, Georgia Tech holds a 1 point lead, 14-13 and Kentucky has the ball.

In the third segment, the Cats claw back on top by 3 points, but Georgia Tech catches back up with its 4 th 3 pointer with out a miss. Georgia Tech then moves on top by a game high 4 points, 23-19 to complete a 7-0 run. After Nick Richards stops the run with a 10 foot jump shot from the left baseline, Georgia Tech moves back on top by 4, 25-21, at the under 12 media timeout, and Georgia Tech will have a free throw after the break that could extend their lead to a game high 5 points.

After Georgia Tech moves on top by 5, 26-21, the Cats claw back into the lead, 27-26, and when Tyrese Maxey is fouled hard in transition, the officials stop play to review the foul. Upon the review, the foul was deemed flagrant, and Tyrese Maxey will have a pair of free throw and the Cats will retain possession with 4:12 left in the first half. The Cats complete a 10 point run to flip the down 5 to up 5, 31-26. Ashton Hagans makes a 3 pointer to extend the Cats' lead to a game high 6, 34-28.

The Cats lead 36-30 at the half.

The Cats scored 36 points on 31 possessions, 1.161 points per possession, and Georgia Tech managed their 30 points on 32 possessions, 0.938 ppp. The Cats made 51.7% (15-29) of their first half shots, including 2-5 (40.0%) from outside the arc. Georgia Tech made 12-24 (50.0%) shooting in the first half and managed to make 4-7 shots from long range (57.1%) and 8-17 (47.1%) from inside the arc.

The Cats made 4-4 free throws (100.0%) and Georgia Tech managed to make 2-5 (40.0%) free throws.

On the Boards, the Cats won the battle 16-11 and the Cats won on the offensive glass, 5-2. The Cats used its 5 second chance possessions to score 4 points and GEORGIA TECH used its 2 second chances to score 3 second chance points. The Cats grabbed 35.7% of their missed shots while GEORGIA TECH only rebounded 15.4% of its missed shots. The Cats committed 6 turnovers, one for each 5.2 possessions while Georgia Tech committed 8 turnovers, one for each 4.0 possessions.

Second Half:

Kentucky opens the second half with a basket by Nick Richards, and following a turnover by Georgia Tech, the Cats extend their lead to a game high 10 points, 40-30. After the Cats extend the lead to 12, 42-30, Georgia Tech takes back 6 of the 12 point lead just as fast as the Cats had extended their 6 point halftime lead to 12. At the under 16 media timeout, with 15:01 left in the game, the Cats lead by 6, 44-38. In the 2 nd segment, Georgia Tech trimmed the lead to only 3 points, 44-41, and had several 3 point attempts in the air with a chance to tie the score, but the Cats extended their lead back to 6 points on a 3 point basket, and Georgia Tech called a timeout with 12:11 left in the game and the Cats on top by 6, 47-41.

In the third segment, the Cats outscored Georgia Tech 4-2 on 6 possessions. The Cats made 1 of 5 shots and missed for the first time today from the line. Georgia Tech made 1 of 8 shots in the segment. Both offenses are struggling to find keys to efficiency.

After Ashton Hagans extends the lead to 10 points with a pair of free throws, Georgia Tech takes a timeout with 7:40 left in the game. In the 4 th segment, the Cats extended their lead to a game high 14, 61-47, and the Cats lead by 12, 61-49, and have the ball at the under 4 media timeout with 3:46 left in the game.

A basket by Nick Richards extends the Cats to a game high 16 point lead, 65-49. However, back to back baskets by Georgia Tech quickly cuts the lead back to 12 points.

Cats win 67-53.

Analysis:

UK scored its 67 points in a total of 67 possessions (1.000 ppp) for the game, and Georgia Tech scored its 53 points on a total of 67 possessions (0.791 ppp).

Kentucky won the battle of the boards, with a rebounding edge 34-27, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 8-6. Kentucky used its 8 second chance possessions to score 11 second chance points while GEORGIA TECH used its 6 second chances to score 5 points. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 27.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Georgia Tech was able to convert 18.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK made 15-18 [83.3%] from the free throw line. Georgia Tech made 2-6 [33.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-51 overall [47.1%] and 4-12 from long range [33.3%]. For Georgia Tech, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 18-35[51.4%] and from long range, Georgia Tech hit 5-18 [27.8%).

The Cats committed 16 turnovers, one for every 4.2 possessions. The Cats forced 17 Georgia Tech turnovers, one for every 3.9 possessions.

Next Game On Schedule: Wednesday night against Utah in Las Vegas in the ninth game of the 2019-20 regular season.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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