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2019-20 Season Analytical Writings
22
Cats Back On The Road For SEC-Big 12 Challenge at Texas Tech
Last season, the Red Raiders rode an ANE of over 0.30 points per possession all the way to the championship game where they fell to Virginia in OT. The 2019-20 version of the Red Raiders is not even close to the same team as a year ago. The current Texas Tech record is 12-6, 3-3 in the Big 12 with an ANE of about 0.19 ppp
Last season, Kentucky rode an ANE of over 0.28 points per possession all the way to the Elite Eight where they fell to Auburn in OT. The 2019-20 version of the Cats is not even close to the same team as a year ago. The current Kentucky record is 14-4, 5-1 in the SEC with an ANE of about 0.20 ppp.
On Saturday, these teams meet in Lubbock for the annual SEC-Big 12 Challenge.
As the number indicate, these teams would have matched up quite well last year even though their paths did not cross in the tournament. However, their respective numbers for the current season also match up quite well, and on Saturday, their paths do collide in Lubbock.
Texas Tech opened the 2019-20 season with 5 wins against an assortment of weak sisters of the poor. Then reality set in with three losses in a row to #20 Iowa by 11, to #44 Creighton by 7, and to #63 Depaul by 5. Then the Red Raiders played one of their strongest games of the year, beating #10 Louisville by 13 and after three more cupcake wins beat #90 Oklahoma State by 35 in their strongest single game of the season. That success was short lived as Texas Tech fell to #6 Baylor by 5 and to #9 West Virginia by 12. The Red Raiders suffered their 6 th loss of the season this week, losing to #60 TCU by 11.
Texas Tech's current ANE is an 0.190 ppp against a schedule strength of 0.032 ppp and a tempo of 69.7 possessions per game. The Cats bring an ANE of 0.204 ppp into this game having played a schedule strength of 0.024 ppp at a tempo of 70.2 possessions per game.
Based on this data for these teams, an ANE analysis indicates this game will have a tempo of 70 possessions with the Cats losing by 3 points, 67-70.
It is intuitively clear than not all 3-point wins or losses are created equal. The quality of any win depends upon the final margin, the strength of the opponent, and the venue of the game.
The table provides tools to evaluate this game's final margin considering the relevant factors. This table separates game outcomes into three ranges, red, tan, and green. Over the years, Calipari's strongest teams win most of their games on the season in the green range and the fewest number of games end in the red range. Conversely, Calipari's weakest teams win most of their games in the red and fewest in the green ranges. move the game into the strong group while smaller margins move the game into the poor range.
Game Summary:
Yesterday, Kahlil Whitney announced that he has left the Kentucky team. Coach Calipari starts Tyrese Maxey, E. J. Montgomery, Nick Richards, Immanuel Quickley, and Ashton Hagans against the Texas Tech. Nate Sestina, Keion Brooks, and Johnny Juzang will come off the bench.
Kentucky controls the opening tip and move out to early leads of 3-0, 5-2, and 10-5, but Texas Tech catches up at 10-10 at the under 16 media timeout with 13:43 left in the first half. After the break, Texas Tech eases into their first lead on a pair of free throws. However, the Cats score the next 6 points to move back on top 16-12 at the under 12 media timeout with 11:04 left in the first half.
Texas Tech goes on an 8-point run, fueled by a couple of Kentucky turnovers, to move back on top by 4, 20-16. Nick Richards stops the run with a pair of free throws, but Texas Tech moves back on top by 4, 22-18. Over the balance of the third segment, the Cats score the next 7 points on a steal and layup by Immanuel Quickley, a 3 point basket by Immanuel Quickley, and a dunk by Nick Richards to lead by 3, 25-22, at the under 8 media timeout with 6:37 left in the first half. Through the first 13 ½ minutes, the Cats have led by as many as 5 (10-5) and Texas Tech has led by as many as 4 (22-18). In the 4 th segment, Texas Tech moves back on top after Kentucky's fifth turnover, but the Cats move back on top with a floater by Immanuel Quickley. At the end of the segment, Nick Richards gets another put back basket and then takes a charge at the other end. The Cats lead by 3, 31-28, at the under 4 media timeout with 3:03 left in the half.
After Kentucky's 6 th turnover, Texas Tech pulls to within 1 point. Texas Tech moves on top by 3, 34-31 after the Cats' 7 th turnover, but the Cats score the final 5 points of the half, to lead 36-34 at the half when Immanuel Quickley makes a 3 point shot at the buzzer after a Texas Tech turnover with 1.6 seconds left.
The Cats made 5-5 free throws (100.0%) and TEXAS TECH made 2-3 (66.7%).
On the Boards, the Cats controlled the glass 21-13 overall, and Kentucky controlled the offensive glass 8-3. Kentucky earned an advantage on second chance points of 11-6. The Cats secured 44.4% of their misses and allowed TEXAS TECH to grab 18.8% of their misses as second chance opportunities.
Second Half:
Texas Tech opens the second half with a basket on a back door cut to pull even again, and Nick Richards makes 1 of 2 from the line to ease the Cats back into a fragile 1 point lead. The Cats then move on top by a game high 6 points, 42-36 before Texas Tech stops the run from their free throw line. The Cats then score 4 straight to go up by a game high 8 points, 46-38, forcing a Texas Tech timeout with 16:58 left in the game. After the timeout, Texas Tech commits its 5 th turnover and Tyrese Maxey makes a pair of free throws to extend the UK lead to a game high 10 points, 48-38. Texas Tech stops the Kentucky run and the Cats maintain the 8 point lead at the under 16 media timeout and 15:34 left in the game.
After back to back Kentucky turnovers, Texas Tech cuts the lead to 5, 50-45 with 13:20 left in the game, and Coach Calipari takes a timeout. After the timeout, Nick Richards stops the Texas Tech run with a jump shot from the free throw line, and a 3 pointer by Nate Sestina moves the Cats on top by 8, 55-47, at the under 12 media timeout with 11:09 left in the game. After the break, Texas Tech converts 1 of 2 from the line to trim the lead to 7. After Texas Tech makes a second chance basket to trim the lead to 5 again, Johnny Juzang makes a second chance 3 pointer to lift the Cats back on top by 8, 58-50 at the under 8 media timeout with 7:44 left in the game. Immanuel Quickley will have a pair of free throws after this break.
Immanuel Quickley made 1 of 2, and then Immanuel Quickley fouls a 3 point shooter to allow Texas Tech to trim the lead to 6, 59-53. Over the balance of the 4 th segment, Texas Tech works to trim the Kentucky lead to 1 point, 62-61 at the under 4 media timeout with 3:06 left in the game and the Cats in possession of the ball and the possession arrow.
After the break, Nick Richards gets to the line but after making his first, Kentucky makes a lane violation negating Nick Richards's second attempt. Texas Tech ties the game from the line, 63-63 with 2:40 left. On Kentucky's next possession, Tyrese Maxey takes a quick 3 pointer, but after Nick Richards gets the offensive rebound Tyrese Maxey commits an offensive foul. After Texas Tech misses a 3 point attempt, Coach Calipari takes a timeout with 1:11 left in the game. Nick Richards gets back to the line with 28 seconds left and the score tied. He missed the first and Texas Tech takes a timeout. After the break, Nick Richards breaks the tie with his second free throw.
Ashton Hagans fouls with 18 seconds left, and Texas Tech makes 1 of 2 to tie the game again, 64-64. The Cats will have the final possession of regulation and a chance to win the game. Texas Tech burns its last timeout with 18 seconds remaining. The Cats fail to score, and the game moves to OT.
Texas Tech controls the OT tip off but fails to score on two attempts, and Nick Richards is fouled on the rebound. Nick Richards lifts the Cats to a 2 point lead by making both shots. Ashton Hagans finds Nick Richards on the baseline, and Nick Richards scores and is fouled for a 3 point play, giving the Cats a 5 point lead, 69-64. After a Texas Tech basket, Nate Sestina makes a 3 pointer to extend the Kentucky lead to 6, 72-66, but Texas Tech is not done. Texas Tech trims the lead to 2, 72-70 with a pair of free throws with 2:15 left in the OT. On the foul, the officials declared Tyrese Maxey had committed his 5 th foul, but the Kentucky bench argued that it was only his 4 th . Upon a review, the official changed it and Tyrese Maxey stayed in the game. With 1:13 left, Nate Sestina fouls out, and Texas Tech ties the game, 72-72, with 1:13 left in the game. Immanuel Quickley makes a pair from the line with 48 seconds left. Texas Tech makes a basket to tie the game again, 74-74, and is fouled on the shot. However, he missed, and Texas Tech got the offensive rebound with 25 seconds left. Texas Tech uses its last timeout in this OT period and will have the last possession with a chance to win the game, something the Cats could not complete at the end of regulation.
Texas Tech missed with 10 seconds left, and Nick Richards is fouled on the rebound. Nick Richards makes both free throws to lift the Cats into a 2 point lead, 76-74. Texas Tech turns the ball over, and the Cats win 76-74.
Cats win by 76-74 in OT.
Analysis:
UK scored its 76 points on 78 possessions (0.974 ppp) for the game, and TEXAS TECH scored its 74 points on 77 possessions (0.961 ppp).
Kentucky won the battle of the boards 38-32, and Texas Tech fought back in the second half on the offensive glass to tie Kentucky 10-10 which produced a 14-13 advantage on second chance points for the Cats. TEXAS TECH had an offensive efficiency of 0.792 ppp on its 77 first chance possessions and 1.300 ppp for its 10 second chance possessions. UK had 0.795 ppp on its 78 first chance possessions and 1.400 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 31.3%of its misses as offensive rebounds while TEXAS TECH was able to convert 26.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 21-25 [84.0%]. TEXAS TECH made 17-23 [73.9%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-55 overall [43.6%] and 7-15 from long range [46.7%]. For Texas Tech, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 24-45 [53.3%] and from long range, TEXAS TECH hit 3-19 [15.8%].
The Cats committed 20 turnovers, one for every 3.9 possessions. The Cats forced 13 TEXAS TECH turnovers, one for every 5.9 possessions.
Next Game On Schedule: Wednesday evening against Vanderbilt at Rupp in the Cats' twentieth regular season game and the 7 th game of the 2020 SEC season.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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