BIG BLUE FANS FOR
FOOTBALL
2009
2009 Kentucky Football
A Look Ahead
by
Brad Terhune and Tim Spears
Edited by
Richard Cheeks
Introduction:
UK has both the schedule and the talent to get six wins and return to school record fourth straight bowl game. Many outside observers might believe that UK should be satisfied with this sustained mediocrity in the SEC. However, UK wants more than just six wins and another post-season journey into Tennessee this year. 2008 was a rebuilding year and six wins along with a third consecutive bowl victory in the Liberty Bowl over East Carolina were adequate to sustain their new found progress in football and to provide the footing for the next step up the SEC ladder. UK is prepared to take another step up that ladder in 2009, and needs to do so to keep their recruiting ball rolling.
In 2008, Kentucky started too many games slowly effectively sealing their fate in important, winnable games, falling behind early. Overall, opponents outscored the Cats 101-34 in the first quarter, and in the second quarter, UK and its opponents both scored 71 points. However, in the second halves of games, the Cats outscored opponents 189-107. This 67 point first quarter scoring deficit occurred in the following four games.
• Alabama 14 Kentucky 0; Final Alabama 17 Kentucky 14
• Vanderbilt 14 Kentucky 0; Final Vanderbilt 31 Kentucky 24
• Georgia 14 Kentucky 7, Final Georgia 42 Kentucky 38
• Florida 28 Kentucky 0; Final Florida 63 Kentucky 5
This 7-70 start in those four losses arguably contributed mightily to the losses in three of these four games. In 2009, the Cats need to begin games as the aggressors, prepared to set the tone of the game in the first quarter on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
2009 Goals:
Kentucky begins the 2009 season with the nation's second longest non-conference winning streak, 14 straight wins. However, Kentucky has not demonstrated any sustained success against SEC opposition. The long-term objective for this program must be consistent competitiveness in the SEC East. The Cats can take another step forward in that journey during the 2009 season by setting their sights on the following goals :
• Start every game as the aggressors, with the intensity and determination to win.
• Continue to win all non-conference games and extend the winning streak to 18 games going into the 2009 bowl season.
• Win 4 SEC games in 2009 and compete for third in the SEC East.
• Extend the newfound bowl streak to 4 years in a row and get a bid to play in a bowl of greater prestige and prominence, such as the Outback or Chick-fil-A Bowl.
• Win a fourth consecutive bowl game, keeping the non-conference winning streak intact for the 2010 season.
• Capitalize upon this on the field success with a 2010 recruiting class that will be the best recruiting class of the Brooks' Era.
To achieve these 2009 goals, the Cats must maintain the defensive gains they have made, improve offensive scoring efficiency, and shore up its special teams, specifically with field goal consistency and punt return averages.
Schedule:
The Kentucky schedule is always challenging because of its annual SEC, more specifically its annual SEC East opponents. The Cats will have SEC home games in games 3 and 4 against Florida and Alabama, both ranked pre-season top 5 nationally, and odds on favorites to meet in the SEC Championship game at the end of the season. The other two SEC home games are Mississippi State and the season ending border war with Tennessee. The Cats travel this year to South Carolina, Auburn, Vanderbilt, and Georgia. Of the four non-conference opponents, only Louisville, at Commonwealth, poses any serious risk to the 2009 Cats based on pre-season estimates of strength.
The Defense:
Over the last two seasons, the UK defense has been the most improved defense in the nation; however, room for improvement remains, as the roster changes require new players to step forward and make that their own responsibility. For this reason, the focus for the 2009 Cats begins with the Defense. Kentucky's 2009 success will depend upon Kentucky's ability to consolidate their defensive gains, and forge some additional defensive gains in 2009. However, this will be a difficult task for the 2009 Kentucky team because UK only returns four starters from last year's team. As a result, the defensive line and line backing units pose concerns, stemming more from untested rather than incapable players.
With respect to the DL, the graduation losses were deep. The off season loss of DE Jeremy Jarmon due to the insanity of the NCAA Zero Tolerance Policy for the use of an over the counter substance compounds the graduation losses. UK has talent to fill in these gaps but that talent, except for Peters and Lumpkin, is unproven, and many reports indicate that red shirt freshmen and JUCO transfers must take up the line share of the slack on the DL.
The line-backing unit will be fine in the middle with second team all-SEC Micah Johnson. However, the outside positions will depend upon players with little game experience. The talent is there but the schedule does not give them much time to improve, as the line-backing group must be ready to compete by game 2 when Louisville comes to Commonwealth.
The secondary will be the strength of the defense. All-SEC corner Trevard Lindley will lead a deep and capable secondary. Lindley deferred on the NFL money for one more year to come back for his senior year. UK also returns safeties Ashton Cobb, Matt Lentz, and Calvin Harrison. In addition, Kentucky will have great depth in the defensive backfield with newcomers Winston Guy, Randell Burden, Martavius Neloms, Paul Wofford, and Cartier Rice each pushing the starters for not just playing time, but the starting positions.
Overall, Kentucky has as much if not more speed and talent on defense as it has ever had and the secondary could prove to be their best ever. The interior DL and LB positions should be strengths, but the ability to contain the outside and the strength of a rush from the ends will be unknown factors as 2009 begins. The new players will have to show that they can play and they will have to do so very quickly with Louisville, Florida, and Alabama coming in games 2 through 4.
Specifically, the defense will show the improvement that is required if it can:
• Limit opponents to a scoring average for 2009 of 21 points per game or less, and
• Improve its red zone touchdown scoring defense to no more than 50%
The Offense:
Last year's offense was clearly the 2008 Achilles heel for Kentucky. The reasons were clearly an inexperienced QB, inexperienced receivers, and an O-Line that simply did not perform at the levels anticipated and expected for 2008. Mike Hartline has held onto his starting QB position, at least for the beginning of the 2009 season based upon his ability to return to the starting role and lead the offense to the Liberty Bowl victory, and he was not seriously challenged during the off season. However, the coaching staff will not guarantee Hartline's position as the starter beyond game 1 in their public statements. First, Randall Cobb will probably line up at the QB slot in situational formations. Second, true freshmen Newton and Mosakowski will challenge Hartline and could displace Hartline by mid season if Hartline fails to provide the leadership necessary to produce wins during the first few games of the 2009 season.
The UK receiver corps has more experience and depth as they prepare for the 2009 season. Five true freshman receivers have become sophomores, and Randall Cobb, who was pulled into full time quarterbacking mid season last year will return to receiver and will give Hartline a true go to target. The arrival of four star JUCO wide receiver Chris Matthews,[6'5" 210,4.5] will give the Wildcats a big, athletic receiver to compliment Cobb.
The offensive line should be as deep as Kentucky has ever had, bolstered by the return of 6'4' 330 pound OG Christian Johnson whose ability to drive opposing linemen off the line of scrimmage was sorely missed last season.
The running back position should benefit by the return of Derrick Locke who went down last year with knee injury as well as the return of Alfonso Smith and Moncell Allen. Freshman Donald Russell will provide some much needed depth. John Conner, one of the best fullbacks in the conference, should play an expanded roll in 2009.
Overall, the offense is bigger, faster, more athletic, and more experienced than last year. That must translate into more scoring production for Kentucky to sustain the gains that this program has experienced over the last 3 seasons. Specifically, the offense will show the improvement that is required if it can:
• Have a scoring average for 2009 of at least 28 points per game, and
• Improve its red zone touchdown scoring to at least 65%
Special Teams:
For the Big Blue Nation, special teams were a source of great angst last year. However, the kicking game, both punting and kick offs were very strong as was the kick off return game. The loss of Lyons to a career ending injury crippled the punt returns game. One factor, the field goal and PAT efficiency by Lones Seiber, drove the fans' angst.
In 2008, Kentucky missed nearly as many field goal attempts as they made, and the most significant special teams need for 2009 is to solve the field goal-PAT inconsistencies that cost the Cats at least 1 win, perhaps more, in 2008. This inconsistency may have more to do with offensive line failures than the kicker, and all indications are that there will not be a personnel change with the kicking duty. Therefore, the improvement must occur with better O-line play allowing Seiber to perform with more confidence and consistency. In 2008, 45 of the top 100 field goal kickers in D1 football made 75% or more of their attempts. For the Cats' offense to step up as desired, Kentucky must be able to put points on the board when the offense cannot get the touchdown after moving the ball within sight of the goal posts, and the 75% criteria seems reasonable.
One of Kentucky's strengths on special teams in 2008 was a kicker who could kick the ball into and through the end zone, forcing opponents to start a large number of possessions at the 20-yard line. Just as Mashtay was a strong and reliable kick off specialist, he was also a strong and reliable punter. Mashtay has graduated, and Tydlacka's ability remains an untested, but the UK Coaches seem satisfied that he would be a capable replacement for Mashtay.
The loss of Lyons hampered Kentucky's punt returns game in 2008. Before the injury, Lyons returned 20 punts for an average of 12.4 yards per return. After his exit, the Cats returned 21 punts for an anemic 6.6 yards per return. Lyons' 12.4 yards per return would have been sufficient to place Kentucky in the top 20 nationally, but for the season, the Cats dropped completely out of any national significance in this area. Lyons has graduated, and Kentucky must identify a punt returner who can be Lyons' equal in 2009.
Kentucky's kickoff returns were a different story in 2008 because Kentucky's 26.4 yards per return average led the SEC and was third best in the nation. The Cats need to take advantage of Locke's return, and build upon Guy's 2008 success returning kick offs to maintain their lofty results in this category.
Specifically, the special teams will show the improvement that is required if it can:
• Convert 100% of their PATs and at least 75% of their field goal attempts, and
• Return punts for at least 12.4 yards per return.
Closure:
In 2009, the Cats must start each game with great intensity, prepared to fight the war from the opening kick on both sides of the ball. As noted earlier, Kentucky's goal for 2009 is to win at least 4 SEC games to show legitimate SEC competitiveness. This will require the Cats to win at least two of three winnable SEC road games, at South Carolina, Auburn, or Vanderbilt. In addition, the Cats will need to win their two winnable home games against Mississippi State and Tennessee. This presumes the Cats will beat all four of its non-conference opponents and extend their non-conference winning streak to 18 games going into the 2009 bowl season.
Kentucky has shown steady improvement under coach Rich Brooks. The three straight bowl wins have paid dividends with the best recruiting class ever for Kentucky. To keep the program on the rise, Kentucky must start beating some SEC teams that have owned the Cats in the past. That change should start this year, and that would produce a 2009 record of 8-4, 4-4 and produce a bowl bid on par with either the Outback or Chick-fil-A Bowl. Anything more than this in 2009 would be sweet music to the ears of the Big Blue Nation.
To Preview of Miami of Ohio Game
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Copyright 2009
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
All Rights Reserved