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FOOTBALL

2010

2010 Football Forecast Update
by Richard Cheeks

INTRODUCTION:

Prior to the football season, I projected the entire season's results based solely upon Kentucky's and each of Kentucky's upcoming opponents' body of work during the prior season, in this case 2009. Now that the new season [2010] has unfolded over the first 4 games for each team, I have updated and modified the season projections based upon the current season statistics through the 4 th game of the year. This transformative analysis is based upon observations that teams tend to reveal their current identity by the time it has played four games in a season.

The following analysis examines the remaining 8 games on Kentucky's 2010 schedule based solely upon the 2010 performance levels for Kentucky and each of its 2010 regular season opponents.

REVIEW OF FIRST 4 WEEKS:

The pre-season projections anticipated that the Cats would complete the first 1/3 of the season with 3 wins, one loss, losing only at Florida, and that is how those 4 games have played out. There have been some differences between the pre-season expectations and the actual outcomes, particularly with respect to final game margins. In addition, the performance by the Cats' 12 opponents has varied from those projected based solely upon each of their 2009 performance records.

TABLE I

With respect to UK, TABLE I shows the projected scores and margins for these first 4 games together with the actual results. Kentucky outperformed the pre-season projections in 3 of the 4 games, only failing to do so in their first SEC game of the year at Florida. In terms of objective measures, the overall UK Net Game Efficiency has improved 0.122 points per possession from the 2009 results.

The Kentucky opponents also have shown a change, some improving and some not from their 2009 levels of performance, as measured by the change in their respective NGE.

TABLE II

As TABLE II indicates, seven (7) of Kentucky's 2010 opponents are playing better football through the first 1/3 of 2010 than they played in 2009 and five (5) are playing poorer, even though the net change for Georgia is small enough to be an insignificant change. In addition, all seven (7) of the teams showing improvement have shown a greater Net improvement in their NGE than the UK improvement. This means that UK has lost ground, 2009 to 2010, to all seven of these opponents: Louisville, WKU, Auburn, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Charleston Southern, and Vanderbilt. UK has gained ground on Akron, Florida [Not enough to defeat them], Mississippi, Georgia, and Tennessee.

PROJECTIONS FOR LAST EIGHT GAMES OF 2010 SEASON:

Overview of 2010 Opponents' Performance and Projected 2010 Record:

The remaining eight games of the 2010 Season includes five games at Commonwealth and three games on the road. In my opinion, there are four clear wins, one possible win, and three clear losses waiting ahead during the remainder of the 2010 schedule. The losses are to Auburn, South Carolina and at Mississippi State. Ole Miss is the possible win in game 5 on the road. The Clear wins are Georgia, Charleston Southern, and Vanderbilt at home, and the season closer at Tennessee. Therefore, based upon the revised projections, I see a 7-5 record, which could become 8-4 if the Cats are able to get a win at Ole Miss in week 5.

Projected Scoring and Margins

The projected scoring and scoring defense has also changed based on these first 4 games. Pre-season, based on 2009 numbers, the projected scoring for the 2010 season was 27 ½ and 23 ½ points per game scored and allowed. However, as we have seen, the UK offense has performed well above the 2009 levels, while the UK defense has slipped noticeably. The revised scoring projections, after 4 games, for the 2010 season are 32 ½ to 27.

The following Table provides the 2010 season projections based on the results of the first 4 weeks of the 2010 season. I will update this following table after each week's play to reflect the actual results and the projections for the remaining games based upon the actual 2010 statistics.

GOALS FOR 2010:

Prior to the season, I identify performance goals for the 2010 football team. The primary goal for 2010 for the Kentucky Football team should remain the same, e.g. to win at least eight games and to win at least as many SEC games as they lose. That goal is still within reach for this team if it can beat Ole Miss in Week 5, and hold true to the remainder of the projected outcomes with respect to Georgia, Vanderbilt and Tennessee.

Scoring Goals

Pre-season, I indicated that the Cats would need to improve scoring in 2010, hopefully to above 30 ppg. Based on the first 1/3 of the season, and the projections going forward, this team should achieve, and actually exceed this pre-season scoring goal by averaging about 32 ½ ppg.

Pre-season, I indicated that the Cats would need to improve scoring defense in 2010, hopefully to below 20 ppg. Based on the first 1/3 of the season, and the projections going forward, this team will not achieve this goal in 2010. At this point, it appears that the Cats will give up about 27 ppg in 2010, which is a serious, and significant slippage from the recent improved scoring defense.

Yardage Goals

Pre-season, I indicated that the Cats would need to improve it total offense yardage to over 400 yards/game in 2010. Through 4 games, the Cats have averaged 461 yards per game, which represents a significant increase. However, the remaining 8 games will present greater opposition than the Cats have face on average during the first 4 weeks, and that number will decline as the season moves toward a conclusion. Based on my estimates, I expect the UK offense to end the season averaging between 375 and 400 yards per game.

Pre-season, I indicated that the Cats would need to improve it total defense yardage to less than 305 yards/game in 2010. Through 4 games, the Cats have averaged 310 yards per game, which represents a decrease from the 2009 results. However, the remaining 8 games will present greater opposition than the Cats have face on average during the first 4 weeks, and that number will increase as the season moves toward a conclusion. Based on my estimates, I expect the UK offense to end the season averaging between 350 and 375 yards per game.

2010 Season Projections Based on First 4 Games of the 2010 Season Statistics for All Teams

See How Game 5 Changes The Forecast

Go Back To 2010 Pre-Season Projections Page

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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