Untitled Document

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

FOOTBALL

2011

Kentucky On The Field Performance
Compared To Sagarin Ratings
UK v LOUISVILLE and SEC Opponents
1998-2010

SUMMARY

These 11 SEC Teams and Louisville Represent 9 of UK's 12 regular seasons games in each season. Five of the six SEC West opponents rotate on and off the UK schedule at this time in a pattern that now provides UK with 2 games, away and home, against each of these 5 Opponents every 5 seasons, while playing Mississippi State each season. Over the last 13 years, UK has outperformed the overall Sagarin ratings against Six of these 12 Opponents, under performed the overall Sagarin ratings against Four of these 12 Opponents, and had an overall PUSH against the other two Opponents.

Here is a summary:

Georgia +2
Arkansas +2
Louisville +1
LSU +1
Auburn +1
Vanderbilt +1/2

Florida PUSH
Alabama PUSH

Tennessee -1
South Carolina -1
Mississippi State -1
Mississippi -1 1/2

This history reflects a total of 117 games over 13 seasons, and UK is a NET +3 in the Win Column as compared to a direct Sagarin Ratings comparison for those 117 games. That is the good news from this analysis, UK has outperformed Sagarin's ratings over the last 13 years and 117 games by +3 game. However, as any Big Blue Fan also knows, this message is not without the bad news, because the primary goal is NOT winning more than the Sagarin ratings say the Cats should win, but winning more games than they lose against these primary opponents. The Cats' overall record in those 117 games is 36-81, and 26 of those wins came in 45 games [26-19] against Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Louisville, and Arkansas. The Cats have only posted 10 wins against the other 8 teams [10-62] over 13 years.

Assuming that the Cats win all 3 of their other non-conference games each year moving forward, then the Cats need to win 5 of these 9 games each year to post a total record of 8-4 for the season, which most observers say would mean that the program has reached the next level of sustained competitiveness in football. That is 5-4 against these 9 opponents, and over the last 13 years, the record has averaged just under 3 wins per year. That is the critical win shortfall for this program as it enters the 2011 football season.

Sagarin Rating Trends
UK v LOUISVILLE and SEC Opponents
1998-2010

Long Term Trends For UK and LOUISVILLE Football; 1998 Through 2010
Play Annually, 6-7, Higher Sagarin Rating 5-8
UK Won 1998, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010
UK +1 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and UT Football; 1998 Through 2010
Play Annually, 0-13, Higher Sagarin Rating 1-12
UK Has Not Won During Period
Last Win Over Tennessee, 1984 at Knoxville
UK -1 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and Florida Football; 1998 Through 2010
Play Annually, 0-13, Higher Sagarin Rating 0-13
UK Has Not Won During Period
Last Win Over Florida, 1986 at Home
UK On The Field v Sagarin Is A PUSH

Long Term Trends For UK and Georgia Football; 1998 Through 2010
Play Annually, 2-11, Higher Sagarin Rating 0-13
UK Won 2006, and 2009
UK +2 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and South Carolina Football; 1998 Through 2010
Play Annually, 3-10, Higher Sagarin Rating 4-9
UK Won 1998, 1999, and 2010
UK -1 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and Vanderbilt Football; 1998 Through 2010
Play Annually, 10-3, Higher Sagarin Rating 9-3-1
UK Won 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, and 2010
UK +1/2 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and Mississippi State Football; 1998 Through 2010
Play Annually, 6-7, Higher Sagarin Rating 6-5-2
UK Won 1998, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2008
UK -1 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and Mississippi Football; 1998 Through 2010
Play 5 Times, 1-4, Higher Sagarin Rating 4-7-2; 2-2-1 in years played
UK Won 2010, 2006, 2005, 2001, and 2000
UK -1 1/2 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and LSU Football; 1998 Through 2010
Play 8 Times, 3-5, Higher Sagarin Rating 2-11; 2-6 in years played
UK Won 2007, 2006, 2005, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, and 1998
UK +1 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and Arkansas Football; 1998 Through 2010
Play 6 Times, 4-2, Higher Sagarin Rating 2-11; 2-4 in years played
UK Won 2008, 2007, 2003, 2002, 1999, and 1998
UK +2 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and Alabama Football; 1998 Through 2010
Play 4 Times, 0-4, Higher Sagarin Rating 3-10; 0-4 in years played
UK Has Not Won During Period, 2009, 2008, 2004, and 2003
Last Win Over Alabama, 1997 at Home
UK On The Field v Sagarin Is A PUSH

Long Term Trends For UK and Auburn Football; 1998 Through 2010
Play 4 Times, 1-3, Higher Sagarin Rating 2-11; 0-4 in years played
UK Won 2010, 2009, 2005, and 2004
UK +1 On The Field v Sagarin

Sagarin Rating Trends
SEC Maximum and Minimum, and NCAA Median
1998-2010

Long Term Trends For SEC Football; 1998 Through 2010

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

2011 Season Projections Based Solely on 2010 Season Statistics for All Teams

Go Back To 2010 Overview Page