Untitled Document

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

FOOTBALL

2012

GATEWAY TO THE 2012 SEC FOOTBALL SEASON

Kentucky On The Field Performance
Compared To Sagarin Ratings
UK v LOUISVILLE and SEC Opponents
1998-2011 (And 2012 Current Values)

SUMMARY

These 13 SEC Teams and Louisville Represent 9 of UK's 12 regular seasons games in each season. With this year's expansion of the SEC to 14 teams, it is not clear how the rotation of conference opponents will work in the future. However, in the past, five of the six SEC West opponents have rotated on and off the UK schedule in a pattern that provided UK with 2 games, away and home, against each of these 5 Opponents every 5 seasons, while playing Mississippi State each season. Over the last 13 years, UK has outperformed the overall Sagarin ratings against Six of these 12 Opponents, under performed the overall Sagarin ratings against Three of these 12 Opponents, and had an overall PUSH against the other Three Opponents. With the addition of Missouri and Texas A&M, the PUSH category expands by two teams simply because UK has not played either of them since 1998, the period of this analysis.

Here is a summary:

Georgia +2
Arkansas +2
Louisville +1
LSU +1
Auburn +1
Vanderbilt +1/2

Florida PUSH
Alabama PUSH
Tennessee PUSH
Missouri PUSH (Have Not Played since 1998)
Texas A&M PUSH (Have Not Played since 1998)

South Carolina -1
Mississippi State -1
Mississippi -1 1/2

This history reflects a total of 126 games over 14 seasons, and UK is a NET +4 in the Win Column as compared to a direct Sagarin Ratings comparison for those 126 games. That is the good news from this analysis, UK has outperformed Sagarin's ratings over the last 14 years and 126 games by +4 game. However, as any Big Blue Fan also knows, this message is not without the bad news, because the primary goal is NOT winning more than the Sagarin ratings say the Cats should win, but winning more games than they lose against these primary opponents. The Cats' overall record in those 126 games is 36-90, and 26 of those wins came in 48 games [26-22] against Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Louisville, and Arkansas. The Cats have only posted 10 wins against the other 8 teams [10-68] over 14 years.

Assuming that the Cats win all 3 of their other non-conference games each year moving forward, then the Cats need to win 5 of these 9 games each year to post a total record of 8-4 for the season, which most observers say would mean that the program has reached the next level of sustained competitiveness in football. That is 5-4 against these 9 opponents, and over the last 14 years, the record has averaged under 3 wins per year. That is the critical win shortfall for this program as it enters the 2012 football season.

Sagarin Rating Trends
UK v LOUISVILLE and SEC Opponents
1998-2010

Long Term Trends For UK and LOUISVILLE Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play Annually, 6-8, Higher Sagarin Rating 5-9
UK Won 1998, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010
UK +1 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and UT Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play Annually, 1-13, Higher Sagarin Rating 1-13
UK Won 2011
Last Win Over Tennessee, 2011 in Lexington
UK On The Field v Sagarin Is A PUSH

Long Term Trends For UK and Florida Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play Annually, 0-14, Higher Sagarin Rating 0-14
UK Has Not Won During Period
Last Win Over Florida, 1986 at Home
UK On The Field v Sagarin Is A PUSH

Long Term Trends For UK and Georgia Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play Annually, 2-12, Higher Sagarin Rating 0-14
UK Won 2006, and 2009
UK +2 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and South Carolina Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play Annually, 3-11, Higher Sagarin Rating 4-10
UK Won 1998, 1999, and 2010
UK -1 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and Vanderbilt Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play Annually, 10-4, Higher Sagarin Rating 9-4-1
UK Won 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, and 2010
UK +1/2 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and Mississippi State Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play Annually, 6-8, Higher Sagarin Rating 6-6-2
UK Won 1998, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2008
UK -1 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and Mississippi Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play 5 Times, 1-4, Higher Sagarin Rating 5-7-2; 2-2-1 in years played
UK Won 2010, 2006, 2005, 2001, and 2000
UK -1 1/2 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and LSU Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play 8 Times, 3-5, Higher Sagarin Rating 2-12; 2-6 in years played
UK Won 2007, 2006, 2005, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, and 1998
UK +1 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and Arkansas Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play 6 Times, 4-2, Higher Sagarin Rating 2-12; 2-4 in years played
UK Won 2008, 2007, 2003, 2002, 1999, and 1998
UK +2 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and Alabama Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play 4 Times, 0-4, Higher Sagarin Rating 3-11; 0-4 in years played
UK Has Not Won During Period, 2009, 2008, 2004, and 2003
Last Win Over Alabama, 1997 at Home
UK On The Field v Sagarin Is A PUSH

Long Term Trends For UK and Auburn Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play 4 Times, 1-3, Higher Sagarin Rating 2-12; 0-4 in years played
UK Won 2010, 2009, 2005, and 2004
UK +1 On The Field v Sagarin

Long Term Trends For UK and Missouri Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play 0 Times, 0-0, Higher Sagarin Rating 4-10; 0-0 in years played
UK Won Have Not Played
UK On The Field v Sagarin Is A PUSH

Long Term Trends For UK and Texas A&M Football; 1998 Through 2011
Play 0 Times, 0-0, Higher Sagarin Rating 4-8-2; 0-0 in years played
UK Won Have Not Played
UK On The Field v Sagarin Is A PUSH

Sagarin Rating Trends
SEC Maximum and Minimum, and NCAA Median
1998-2011

Long Term Trends For SEC Football; 1998 Through 2011

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GATEWAY TO THE 2012 SEC FOOTBALL SEASON

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

2012 Season Projections Based Solely on 2011 Season Statistics for All Teams

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