BIG BLUE FANS FOR
FOOTBALL
2012
GATEWAY TO THE 2012 SEC FOOTBALL SEASON
2012 Pre-Season Football Fearless Forecast
Updated After Four Games
by Richard Cheeks
Projected Season Records
Prior to the start of this season, I ventured into the land of crystal ball gazing, and fearlessly forecast a 3-9 record, 0-8 in the SEC for the 2012 Kentucky Wildcats. The three projected wins would be over Kent State, Western Kentucky, and Samford, all at Commonwealth. Those projections were based solely on the 2011 final statistics for Kentucky and each of its opponents, and I indicated that after all the teams had completed four games on their 2012 schedules, the 2012 character of the teams would be sufficiently defined to revisit the projections for the balance of this season.
Well, for better or worse, the teams passed the four-game mark on Saturday. When I posted the 3-9, 0-8 projection, the general fan reaction was consistently contrary, arguing that this Kentucky team would be markedly better than their 2011 counterparts, and that these projections, based on the statistics, cannot possibly measure the heart of this version of Cats. Well, we can argue for years to come about whether these analyses account for the “heart” of a team, one thing is clear after 4 games. This team will not win “just” three games; it will win less than three. Already, this team has dropped one of its 3 wins, and the projected margins for the remaining 8 games have become less favorable for additional wins, not more favorable. Even the Samford margin has tightened to the point that the probability of a second UK win this season has dropped to about 65% when all three of the methods are blended (see table below). Furthermore, the Adjusted NGE method, which is the one I rely upon in my comparison of team strengths, projects a 6 point loss to Samford at Commonwealth as of this morning.
Not only will the Kentucky Wildcats not return to bowl eligibility in 2012, the downward trend that this program has been sliding down since Coach Brooks' final season to present probably means that this program is more likely to return to a dearth of bowl eligibility over the next several seasons rather than return to consistent seasons of bowl eligibility.
Projected Scoring and Margins
The pre-season scoring projections suggested that the Cats might average 20 1/2 points per game while allowing 26 1/2 points per game, e.g. average margin -6 points per game. After four games, that same analysis indicates a season average of 22 ½ to 28 ½, an average margin of -8 points per game. This program is continuing its slide, and the number of empty seats in Commonwealth Stadium is going to dominate the number of occupied seats before this season ends.
UK fan, and owner of http://bigbluefans4uk.com
GATEWAY TO THE 2012 SEC FOOTBALL SEASON
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
2012 Season Projections Based Solely on 2011 Season Statistics for All Teams
Copyright 2011
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
All Rights Reserved