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How Will The Cats Fare In 2015 With Their Football Season?

A year ago, as the 2014 season was set to occur, the reflections on the 2013 season were that it had been a bumpy ride along the bottom of the SEC despite encouraging signs of programmatic progress in the first year of the Stoops era. The 2014 forecast set a primary goal of delivering on the promise of noticeable improvement by earning at least one SEC win, with serious hopes of securing two SEC wins. The 2014 fearless forecast ended with the following summary:

The task that still lies ahead of Coach Stoops is daunting, to say the least. Four wins would signal continued improvement, albeit modest. Five wins would signal significant improvement. Six or seven wins would send a message to the SEC that Coach Stoops is taking his promises seriously, and should propel Coach Stoops into the SEC Coach of the Year discussion.

I believe this team will get 4 wins, and may get 5. I will be surprised if the improvement on the defensive side of the ball is sufficient to get the 5 th or 6 th wins to put this team into bowl discussions for 2014.

The schedule maker set the Cats up for early “success” providing games that the developing Cats could win. Win they did! A 5-1 start set the entire UK football fan base abuzz with hopes of a bowl game in Coach Stoops' second season in Lexington. But for the inability to close out a victory in Gainesville, and finally dropping a disappointing loss in OT to the Gators, the Cats could have finished the first half bowl eligible at 6-0.

At mid-season, I surmised that as hopeful as the 5-1 records appeared, darker days lay ahead for the 2014 Cats with a schedule that would make finding that all important 6 th win very difficult. The sixth win was not an impossible mission for the 2014 Cats, but it was nearly so, and as the season actually played out, the Cats could not win again in 2014, finishing 5-7. However, the 5-7 record included two important SEC wins, and impressive improvement in SEC play for a team that had failed to win a single SEC game for the prior three seasons.

Yes, Big Blue Nation, the Cats did show improvement in 2014 that was measurable in wins, including those two huge SEC victories. To put the gains of 2014 into a numerical perspective, consider the following: Over the last 5 seasons, the Cats have ended the year with the following adjusted efficiencies:

Offensively, the 2014 Cats continued their trend of improvement. In 2012, the Cats posted an offensive efficiency of 1.95 ppp, and in 2013, the Cats improved offensive efficiency to 2.41 ppp. In 2014, the Cats' offensive efficiency improved again, this time to 2.79 ppp. That is 12 th best in the SEC for 2014. Another improvement of 0.4 to 0.5 ppp over 2014 to 2015 will lift the Cats' offensive output into the 3.2 to 3.3 ppp range which will be sufficient to lift them to the #8 position in the SEC. To move into the top ½ of the conference on offense, the Cats will need an offensive efficiency of at least 3.6 ppp, an increase of 0.8 ppp over 2014. At 3.25 ppp, the Cats will average almost 40 ppg, which is an ambitious increase from last season's 29.2 ppg. The top ½ of the SEC average 43 or more points per game.

2012 1.95 ppp
2013 2.41 ppp; +0.46 ppp
2014 2.79 ppp; +0.38 ppp
2015 Goal: 3.25 ppp; +0.46 ppp

Defensively, the Cats were essentially the same team in 2013 as it had been in 2012 with efficiencies of 2.206 ppp in 2012 and 2.119 ppp in 2013. In 2014, the Cats posted a modest improvement on the defensive side of the ball, lowering their defensive efficiency to 1.81 ppp. The SEC median defense in 2014 had an efficiency of about 1.4 ppp, down from 1.6 points per possession in 2013. The Cats' defensive improvement barely outpaced the SEC average defensive improvement. The defensive improvement required to reach SEC median levels is very substantial. I do not hear or see any basis for optimism that the defense can make that kind of leap in 2015.

2012 2.21 ppp
2013 2.12 ppp; -0.09 ppp
2014 1.81 ppp; -0.31 ppp
2015 Goal: 1.50 ppp; -0.31 ppp

At these 2015 target levels of performance, the net game efficiency will improve from 0.98 ppp in 2014 to 1.75 ppp in 2015. The average SEC net game efficiency has been:

2010: 1.61 ppp
2011: 1.56 ppp
2012: 1.48 ppp
2013: 1.79 ppp
2014: 1.92 ppp

Median levels of play in the SEC should correspond to 4 SEC wins, coupled with at least 3 non-conference wins, and probably 4 non-conference wins. 8-4 or 7-5. A more practical 2015 goal would be to win 3 SEC games and beat Louisville for 7 total wins, with bowl eligibility not hanging in the balance for the Cats when they face the Cards at the end of November. To elevate their game to the 3 SEC win level, they will need to increase their NGE from about 0.98 ppp of 2014 to between 1.0 and 1.5 ppp in 2015. The increase of 0.1 to 0.6 ppp probably must come primarily from offensive gains (0.3 to 0.4 ppp improvements) with the defensive contributing to the team improvement at about 0.3 ppp as it did last season.

What does 2015 hold for the Cats? We will not know until the games begin, but we will know within the first 4 weeks of the season if this team is showing the level of improvement needed on the offense and defense to make a bowl trip possible for 2015.

As a point of reference, the average net game efficiency for college basketball, by definition is 0.00 ppp because for every point scored, there is a point allowed on the same possession by the opposing teams. Three of the Cats' 2015 opponents ended 2014 with negative Net Game Efficiency (ppp) values. The Cats' 0.98 ppp Net Game Efficiency (ppp) value for 2014 was sufficient to put the Cats into the top 50 of College Football in 2014.

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Submitted by Richard Cheeks

2015 Season Projections Based Solely on 2014 Season Statistics for All Teams

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