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UK'S Third Down Conversion Rate Has Been Top 10
BUT
UK'S Third Down Defensive Conversion Rate Is Outside Top 100
UK THIRD AND FOURTH DOWN CONVERSIONS
2007-2014
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Over the last 8 seasons, the UK football team has converted an average of 50.4% of its third down plays for first downs. The last three Brooks' teams finished at 51.4%, 48.8%, and 49.5% in 2007, 2008, and 2009. The first Phillips team improved on the Brooks record with 52.0%, but in his last two seasons, the conversion rate fell to 44.8% and then 43.8% in 2011 and 2012. The third down conversion rates between 2007 through 2010 were strong enough to place the Cats in the top 10 nationally in three of the four seasons, and in the top 25 in 2008. When the conversion rate plummeted in 2011 and 2012, the Cats' conversion rate dropped to the lower end of the top 50 range.
NCAA THIRD DOWN CONVERSION RATES
OFFENSE-DEFENSE
2007-2014
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When Coach Stoops arrived for the 2013 season, he inherited a roster that was depleted, and the third down conversion rate slipped to 42.9%, which was barely sufficient to keep the Cats in the top 50 nationally. In 2014, Coach Stoops' second team, the third down conversion rate climbed to a more respectable 45.1%, but that was not quite enough to finish in the top 25 in the nation (45.9%).
The Kentucky third down conversion rates have not been as miserable as it seemed during these last several seasons. Actually, on average a conversion rate of about 49% is sufficient to place a team in the top 10. In addition, the top third rate conversion rate has ranged between 53.4% (2007) and 57.9% (2014) with an average of 55.9% over the last 8 seasons. While the Cats still have room for improvement on their third down conversion, improving back to the Coach Brooks' standards, sufficient to rank in the top 10, requires improving from the 45.1% rate of last year to about 49%, and increase of less than one conversion per game.
The Kentucky nemesis regarding third down conversions has been on the defensive side of the ball, not on offense. Even the last three Brooks' teams allowed opponents to convert 48.6%, 51.2%, and 50.5% in 2007, 2008, and 2009. Coach Phillips' first team improved a little on the Brooks' record allowing “only” 48.0% conversions, but in his second and third seasons, the opponent third down conversion rate surged to 55.6% and 56.3%.
To put these defensive third down conversion rates into national perspective, none of the UK results are sufficient to place them in the top 100 on college football. Coach Stoops, known as a defensive specialist, has not improved on this track record. His first two teams have allowed 57.1% and 54.9% respectively. The NCAA profile for defensive third down conversion rates are provided in the second table. Before the UK program can become legitimate SEC competitors, the defensive numbers simply must improve, and improve dramatically. The third down conversion rate exemplifies the distance that the UK defense must span to achieve competitiveness. Top 100 is 45%; Top 75 is 41%; Top 50 is 38%; Top 25 is 35%; and Top 10 is 32%.
The Cats must reduce opponent third down conversions by 1 ½ per game on average just to break into the top 100, and to reach the top 10, equivalent to their offensive performance goal, they must get 3 ½ more stops per game.
There is nothing new or earth shattering in the analysis of the UK defense because the plaintiff plea for years has been about the defense's inability to get off the field, and give the ball back to the offense. However, the analysis should put some measuring sticks onto the table to compare the team's actual performance as the season unfolds.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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