Mid-Season Check Up

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Mid-Season Check Up For the Cats

Five games into the season, the Cats played enough to give us a sufficient experience base to make some credible observations and projections. Pre-season projections are fun, but frankly no one should rely on them for anything other than entertainment value. The first 5 opponents, collectively, comprise the “easy” part of the schedule, and the opponents for the final 7 games will pose much greater difficulty for the Cats. The average ANE for the first 5 opponents is 0.52 ppp and the average ANE for the next 7 opponents is 1.34 ppp. The Cats played 2 of the first 5 games on the road, and will have 4 of the last 7 opponents at home.

Here are my observations through these five games:

1. The offense is down. I know this is stating the obvious, but it is indeed true. Your eyes are not deceiving you on that front. Here is how far down. UK's adjusted offensive efficiency is 2.25 pp, and last year it was 2.94 ppp for the last 10 games. In 2015, it was 2.52 ppp. This is the least efficient offense in the Stoops' Era, and is only slightly more efficient than Joker's last team ( 1.95 ppp). Only three 2017 opponents have less efficient offenses, and the Cats have already played all three. All remaining opponents have been stronger offensively, ranging from Missouri (2.31 ppp) to Louisville, Mississippi State, and Georgia (each at 3.51 ppp or higher). IMO, UK must get its offensive act together NOW!!!! to achieve its goals for the 2017 season with 8 or more wins.

2. The defense is up, but not just up, WAY UP. Again, this is stating the obvious, but it is also true. Here are some numbers. The defensive efficiency has been 1.34 ppp, which is again the best of the Stoops' Era. Last year, the previous Stoops' best was 1.73 ppp, and they have cut nearly 1 ppp off Joker's last team (2.21 ppp). Only 3 UK opponents have had better defensive efficiency this season, EMU (1.12 ppp), Mississippi State (1.24 ppp) and Georgia (0.56 ppp). The Cats have held its opponents to under 19 ppg thus far. If you recall, I believe 20 ppg or lower is the criteria for top flight SEC Defenses. This is a very good defense.

3. Special Teams have been up, way up from recent years. I don't have any way to translate their performance into efficiency values, but I have no doubt that special teams have worked to "mask" offensive woes and augment the defensive strength. Last night, UK's punter averaged over 47 yards per punt. All season long, the punting and punt coverage has provided field position advantages for the defense, and kick offs and kick off coverage have been similarly impressive. The field goal kicking has been strong despite the several misses from long range.

4. I am still looking at projections showing 8-4, and I still believe that UK can be competitive in all remaining games, including at Georgia. The projected margins for wins and losses are very small, which is why I believe UK must solve its offensive issues now. Here is how the current state of the data projects the rest of the season.

6 06MIZZOU 32 23 +9
7 07@MSU 21 27 -6
8 08TENN 25 22 +3
9 09MISS 30 24 +6
10 10@VANDY 23 21 +2
11 11@Georgia 16 27 -11
12 12UL 25 29 -4

5. Stephen Johnson took a beating from EMU last night, yet his passing efficiency stood up against their onslaught. Through 5 weeks, Johnson's QB Efficiency Rating has been 148.8, which is 39th in the country. Some recent UK QB ratings:

2016 Johnson 130.9 #65
2015 Towles 112.0 #97
2014 Towles 122.5 #67
2013 Smith 131.1 #68

2012, 108.6 #111
2011 96.2 #118
2010 144.1 #31
2009 108.6 #109
2008 102.4 #105

For me, I am hanging with this team, and believe they are going to deliver a special season for the fans. They are 4-1, and I believe they will be 8-2 going into the Georgia/Louisville finale. Who could possibly demand more than this from these players and coaches, especially given where this program was a scant 5 seasons ago.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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