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Kentucky On The Field Performance SUMMARY These 13 SEC Teams and Louisville Represent 9 of UK's 12 regular seasons games in each season. Over the last 19 years, UK has outperformed the overall Sagarin ratings against Eight of these 13 Opponents, under performed the overall Sagarin ratings against One of these 13 Opponents, and had an overall PUSH against the other Five Opponents. With the addition of Texas A&M, the PUSH category expands by one team simply because UK has not played Texas A&M since 1998, the period of this analysis. Here is a summary: Georgia +2 Florida PUSH This history reflects a total of 171 games over 19 seasons, and UK is a NET +9 1/2 games in the Win Column as compared to a direct Sagarin Ratings comparison for those 171 games. That is the good news from this analysis, UK has outperformed Sagarin's ratings over the last 19 years and 171 games by +9 1/2 games. However, as any Big Blue Fan also knows, this message is not without the bad news, because the primary goal is NOT winning more than the Sagarin ratings say the Cats should win, but winning more games than they lose against these primary opponents. The Cats' overall record in those 171 games is 46-125, and 36 of those wins came in 83 games [36-47] against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Louisville, and Arkansas. The Cats have only posted 10 wins against the other 8 teams [10-78] over 19 years. Assuming that the Cats win all 3 of their other non-conference games each year moving forward, then the Cats need to win 3 of these 9 games to win 6 and become bowl eligible, and 5 of these 9 games each year to post a total record of 8-4 for the season, which most observers say would mean that the program has reached the next level of sustained competitiveness in football. That is 5-4 against these 9 opponents, and over the last 19 years, the record has averaged 2.4 wins per year. That is the critical win shortfall for this program as it enters the 2017 football season. In a related matter, the SEC Football power has been surging. Since the end of the 2012 season. The SEC East has remained essentially unchanged during this surge, while the SEC West has led the way with an average increase of 19% in power ratings based on Adjusted NGE values. To read more about this emerging trend in college football, CLICK HERE. Sagarin Rating Trends
Long Term Trends For UK and LOUISVILLE Football; 1998 Through 2016
Long Term Trends For UK and UT Football; 1998 Through 2016
Long Term Trends For UK and Florida Football; 1998 Through 2016
Long Term Trends For UK and Georgia Football; 1998 Through 2016
Long Term Trends For UK and South Carolina Football; 1998 Through 2016
Long Term Trends For UK and Vanderbilt Football; 1998 Through 2016
Long Term Trends For UK and Mississippi State Football; 1998 Through 2016
Long Term Trends For UK and Mississippi Football; 1998 Through 2016
Long Term Trends For UK and LSU Football; 1998 Through 2016
Long Term Trends For UK and Arkansas Football; 1998 Through 2016
Long Term Trends For UK and Alabama Football; 1998 Through 2016
Long Term Trends For UK and Auburn Football; 1998 Through 2016
Long Term Trends For UK and Missouri Football; 1998 Through 2016
Long Term Trends For UK and Texas A&M Football; 1998 Through 2016
Sagarin Rating Trends Long Term Trends For SEC Football; 1998 Through 2015
GATEWAY TO THE 2017 SEC FOOTBALL SEASON Submitted by Richard Cheeks Copyright 2017 |