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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

03
Kentucky Opens With First Exhibition Game Against NAIA Pikeville College:

Pre-Game Analysis:

The pre-season “boot camp” has occurred, and the 2007-08 Cats have been taking out their frustrations and new found excitement out on each other in practice sessions since the onset of this season on October 12, 2007. Finally, the time has arrived for this group to let a real opponent know that the Cats are back.

There Exhibition games provide an opportunity to get a very early glimpse at the team and for the fans at the very least, an opportunity to extend these observations to the season that lies ahead.

Let's review the technical performance of the 2005-06 Wildcats.

Statistical Category: Exh. Gms OOC SEC Total

Pace, Possessions Per Game: 88 82 77 79

Offensive Efficiency, ppp: 0.933 0.855 0.926 0.891

Defensive Efficiency, ppp: 0.642 0.804 0.886 0.845

Net Game Efficiency, ppp: 0.291 0.051 0.040 0.046

Let's review the technical performance of the 2006-07 Wildcats.

Statistical Category: Exh. Gms OOC SEC Total

Pace, Possessions Per Game: 89 80 79 79

Offensive Efficiency, ppp: 0.983 0.899 0.949 0.925

Defensive Efficiency, ppp: 0.588 0.791 0.887 0.836

Net Game Efficiency, ppp: 0.396 0.108 0.062 0.090

It should be clear that these exhibition games, tonight against NAIA Pikeville College, and the November 3, 2007 match up against Seattle must be viewed through the proper prism, but when so viewed, they can provide some insight into the season that will follow. My experience has been that these games will provide a positive indication for the season when UK's offensive efficiency exceeds 1.100 ppp for the two games combined, and the UK defensive efficiency is less than 0.600 ppp for the two games. With respect to pace, the season average will be significantly slower than the pace of these games. If UK is serious this season about increasing the pace of play, that should emerge in these games as a pace in excess of 100 possessions per game for the pair of games.

On the basis of these “hoped for” results in the exhibition games, I “predict” a UK win over Pikeville College by a score of 110 – 55, with each team have 100 possessions.

Let the games begin.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie started Bradley, Meeks, Coury, Harris and Stevenson, one senior and four sophomores. The Cats' other senior, Joe Crawford, a starter last season is still healing from recent surgery, and Freshman Patrick Patterson is recovering from a recent respiratory infection.

During the first half, the team started very tentatively, turning the ball over 4 times in the first 3 and ½ minutes of play. Nevertheless, the first mini-game was very efficient, scoring 10 points on their first nine possessions on the strength of two Meeks three pointers. During that first segment, Coach Gillispie inserted Patterson and Legion into their first games as Cats at Rupp arena. Patterson responded with an immediate FG. The Cats were even more efficient in the second segment of play, scoring 11 points on another 9 possessions. On the defensive end of the court, the Cats' defensive has held Pikeville College [PC] to only 9 points on 18 possessions, for an impressive early defensive efficiency of 0.500 ppp. That defensive effort couples with the excellent offensive start is a pace of 90 possessions, and 105-45.

The third segment was more efficient on the offensive and defensive ends than either of the first two segments, scoring 11 points on only 8 possessions and holding PC to only 2 points in seven tries, taking a 32-11 lead to the under 8 TV time out. Last year in the first exhibition game, the Cats only led Lindsay Wilson College 31-25 at the under 4 TV timeout.

For the first time in this game, PC outplayed the Cats in the 4 th mini-game, scoring 7 points on 6 possessions to the Cats 6 points on 8 possessions, forcing a UK timeout with 4:18 to play. The teams finished out the 4 th segment following the UK timeout without scoring, and UK leading 38-19 with 3:45 to go in the half. The Cats responded to Coach's call to return to more aggressiveness by outscoring PC 13-8 over an 8 possession final segment, taking a 51-27 lead into the locker room.

In first half, UK had 44 possessions while PC had 43. Each team grabbed six (6) offensive rebounds in the first half. However, the Cats made much better use of its second chances than did PC, taking a 10-4 advantage in second chance points during the first half. PC had an offensive efficiency of 0.622 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 0.667 for its 6 second chance possessions. UK had 1.079 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 1.667 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions. Kentucky controlled the boards, holding a 15-13 edge in total rebounds.

The free throw shooting in the first half was excellent for the Cats, 90.9% [10-11], but PC struggled from the line, only making 7 of 14 [50.0%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 8-21 overall [38.1%] and 4-7 [50%] from long range [57.1%]. For PC, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a dismal 4-14 [28.6%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 91 st point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 40 points, while PC needs a whopping 64 points. Kentucky scored its 91 st point on a Bradley free throw with 3:28 to play in the game. The first half pace is equivalent to 88 possessions for the game for Kentucky and 86 possessions for PC.

Second Half Summary:

In the second half, Kentucky started just as they started the first half, controlling the place, scoring 10 points on 10 possessions and holding PC to only 3 points on 12 possessions. Rebounding is clearly emerging as this team's Achilles heel. The Cats continue to click on offense, posting 9 more points on 9 possessions in segment 7 while PC managed to score only 3 points on 10 possessions, with a score of 70-30 at the under 12 TV timeout. The pace of this game is about 90 possessions and 100-50 UK win.

The third segment of the second half saw the Cats stall on both ends of the floor, only scoring 7 point on 8 possessions while allowing PC to score 12 points on its 8 possessions. The teams played out the final 8 minutes of the game and Kentucky finishes with a 99-64 victory.

UK scored its 99 points in a total of 89 possessions for the game, and PC scored its 64 points on a total of 90 possessions.

Kentucky lost the offensive rebounding edge, 9-12 [-3], but the Cats used their second chance possessions with greater efficiency, winning the second chance points battle 16-7. PC had an offensive efficiency of 0.740 ppp on its 78 first chance possessions and 0.583 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 1.038 ppp on its 79 first chance possessions and 1.778 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions. Kentucky controlled the boards, 31-27 in total rebounds, but the –3 offensive rebounding deficit is a major area of concern for this team. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 37.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while PC was only able to convert 35.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK's second half free throw shooting dropped off to 10-15 [66.7%] and 20 for 26 for the game. PC made 17-31 [54.8%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 34-55 overall [61.8%] and 11-21 from long range [52.4%]. For PC, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a respectable 7-18 [38.9%] but from long range, PC hit 13-31 [41.9%].

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, UK's performance in these two exhibition games can provide an important glimpse into what may be in store for this team this season. The criteria I presented were:

•  At least 1.100 ppp offensive efficiency for the two games combined.

•  No more than 0.600 ppp defensive efficiency for the two games combined,

•  A Net Game Efficiency of at least 0.500 ppp for both games combined

UK passed the offensive criteria in this first exhibtion game, but failed to meet the goal on the defensive end or the NGE for the Game. The offensive efficiency of 1.112 ppp is very impressive as the team operated with great efficiency at the offensive end against this PC team. The defensive efficiency was 0.711 ppp, which is not an impressive start against this exhibition opponent, yielding a game Net Game Efficiency of 0.401 ppp.

Areas of improvement include offensive rebounding and defensive efficiency.

Next Game On Schedule:

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Four

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A Look Forward to 2007-08

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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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