BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

THIS PAGE PROVIDES EVERY BIG BLUE FAN A GATEWAY
INTO THE 2016-17 BASKETBALL SEASON
NOTE: Remainder of This Gateway Will Be Updated Prior to the 2016-17 Season

The Data provided on this and other pages relevant to the current season will update
following each UK game and at other times as indicated by other activity in college basketball

How Have Kentucky Opponents And National Contenders
Performed and Trended Over the Last Decade?
Click Here To Explore

Listen To Coach Calipari on the Mike Lupica Show
Great Listen

UK (Especially During the Calipari Era) Provides a Route To The NBA For Players

Jay Bilas Lays Out The Formula For Success

The 2016 SEC Tournament Is Coming in early March
Wednesday March 8-Play In Games (Bottom 4 Teams)
Thursday March 9-First Rouund Games (All But Top 4 Teams)
Friday March 10-Quarter Final Games (Top 4 meet 4 First Round Winners)
Saturday March 11-Semifinal Games
Sunday March 12-Championship Game

YOUR GATEWAY TO THE 2017 SEC TOURNAMENT
CLICK HERE!!!
(The Information Provided Until March 5, 2017 Is Based On Projected Final Finish AND Current ANE Data for Teams.
This will be updated at least weekly until March 5, 2017)

The Current State of the UK Roster
Projected Into The Out Years
AND
RECRUITING PROSPECTS
FOR 2017 THROUGH 2019

Scoring is the Product of Tempo and Efficiency
Here is How The Factors Have Varied
( Source: http://www.kenpom.com )

ADJUSTED DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY ADJUSTED OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY

Since 2002, the NCAA Tournament Champion has met three efficiency based criteria
and Must Remain "alive" in the tournament field :

1. A top 8 overall efficiency,
2. An offensive and a defensive efficiency each the top 20, and
3. An ANE > 0.3 points per possession

CRITERIA 1. and 2.

Five Top 8 Teams Appear in both the top 20 offensive and top 20 defensive ratings as of 3/25/17
AND are Still Alive as of 3/25/17

#1 Gonzaga, #4 North Carolina, and #6 Kentucky

CRITERION 3.

Three of these 5 Teams Have an ANE > 0.3 ppp
#1 Gonzaga

The 2017 NCAA Tournament Saw Kentucky and UNC go to the final buzzer
to determine which would advance to the Final Four, and
Saw UNC face Gonzaga for the National Championship.

Which teams will satisfy these criteria when March Madness 2018 Begins?

Here is the Top 20 as of 3/25/17

HOME COURT ADVANTAGE

Most Agree That Teams Enjoy An Advantage Against Their Opponent
When The Are Playing Games At Home,
Thus a Corresponding Disadvantage
When Playing Games At The Opponents' Home.
Most Also Want To Believe That No Such Advantage Exists
When Teams Compete At A Neutral Location.
Here Are the Data For UK Based On Games Played This Season To Date
Historically, Data Indicates a HCA of about 6 points.

The current ANE and Pomeroy HCA are shown below:

How Have The Cats Performed Against
Stronger vs Weaker Opponents
Non-conference vs SEC Opponents
And Regular Season vs Post Season Opponents

The Current Top 100 Ratings
Based On ANE
With Relevant Details

CURRENT ANE RANKINGS
ALL 351 D1 TEAMS

End of Month ANE Rankings For All D1 Teams Through The 2016-17 Season

A Comparison of Kentucky Adjusted Efficiencies
With Average NCAA D1 Adjusted Efficiencies
2002 Through 2017

SEC Rankings Based On NGE
2016-17 Current Ranking
Top 4 Get Double Byes
Bottom 4 Get No Byes
Generally Top 40 Teams Get Into the NCAA
Teams Ranked 41-70 Are Hit and Miss For NCAA Invitations

Sometimes the truth does hurt
Read it and weep, all opponents

All 2016-17 Opponents With Pythagorean Rating
Pre-Season

2016-17 All Opponent Game Projections
Sorted On Theoretical Game Margin
(Lowest to Highest)

2016-17 Schedule with predicted and actual result
With Pre-game Margins Provided by
Pomeroy, RPI Forecast, and Vegas Insider

GAME BY GAME ANE FOR 2016-17
SHOWING GAME TO GAME, RUNNING AVERGE AND
RUNNING AVERAGE +/- 1 STD. DEV. UNIT

Current Individual Efficiencies

Kentucky Efficiencies by Game

College Basketball-NCAA D1
2016-17 Season Upset Rate
Daily Data/Results

Summary Table Sorted By Probability Of Winning

Graph of Probability of Winning v Upset Rate

How Have The Pomeroy Rankings Worked Out
With Recent National Champions?

Very Well, actually, with the #1 rated team winning the
National Championship in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013.
In 2011, Connecticut came out of nowhere for an amazing run
to the Championship as the #10 rated team on the Season.

See the Details at this LINK!!!!

Follow the 2016-17 Cats From a Mid-summer analysis
of the roster, to pre-season predictions, and then game by game analysis.
You can use the following link to start the reading in sequence,
or you can select links to specific installments below:

Follow the 2016-17 Season
With Game to Game Analysis
In the Sequence Written,

OR

Go Directly To A Specific Installment of This Series:

THE DATA:

Last Game Box Score and Efficiency Data/Trends
for last 3 and 5 games as well as for entire Season

Rebounding Rates; Game-to-Game Grades;
Kentucky and Opponent Shooting Summary; Pace by Game;
Opponent Strength Summary Tables; Turnover Rates by Game; and
Efficiency Trends For Season

UK 2016-17 INTERIM STATS
COMPARED TO NCAA D1 AVERAGE Together with Summary
Tables for 1993 Through 2017

PREDICTED V. ACTUAL SCORES, MARGINS, AND TOTAL POINTS
FOR ALL GAMES IN THIS AND RECENT SEASONS

HISTORICAL DATA FOR ALL SEASONS
KENTUCKY BASKETBALL 1972 THROUG H 2017
TABULATED BY COACH

ANALYSIS OF KENTUCKY BASKETBALL
WITH TEAM AVERAGES FROM 2000 THROUGH 2017

Data for UK Teams 1996, and 2000 Through 2017 for Each Sort Category
Noted Below:

1. All Games, Including Exhibitions
2. All Games-D1 [No Exhibitions]
3. Home
4. Away
5. Neutral Court
6. Non-Conference
7. SEC
8. Pomeroy Top 50
9. Pomeroy Over 50
10. Post Season Play
11. Games Since Louisville Game, 2003-2016
12. SEC Tournament Gateway
13. NCAA Tournament

To Last Game's Box Score

RETURN TO THE
NEWS INDEX

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Why Do "Upsets" Occur?

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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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