02 CANISIUS

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2016-17 Season Analytical Writings

05
The Cats Have Work To Do
With Two Days Before Canisius

In their first encounter against a D1 basketball team, the Big Blue Nation learned a thing or two about this team that Coach Calipari probably already knew. First, this team is not very strong on the boards and second Edrice (BAM) Adebayo is both foul prone and a poor free throw shooter. The personal issues with BAM is not too surprising, but the lack of strength on the Boards is a major concern with Tom Izzo's Spartans waiting for the Cats on Tuesday night. Against Stephen F. Austin, the Cats only rebounding 1/3 of its missed shots, which is very low for a Calipari coached team, and the Cats allowed Stephen F. Austin to rebound nearly ½ of there misses, which is also the antithesis of a Coach Calipari team.

Nevertheless, the Cats led nearly the entire game (trailing one time at 2-3 in the first minute of play), led by 28 points inside the last 5 minutes of the game, and finished with a 23 point win. So, the report from game 1 is not all gloom and doom, and Coach Calipari clearly has some talent on this team to mold and develop.

Next up for the Cats will be Canisius on Sunday evening at Rupp Arena. Last season, Canisius finished 14-19 after three consecutive seasons with winning records. The Golden Griffins finished the 2015-16 ranked #237 by Pomeroy, and Pomeroy opens the 2016-17 season with Canisius at the #225 spot.

Canisius has played one exhibition game, winning 99-95 in a game played at a pace of 78 possessions. The Adjusted Net Efficiency (ANE) analysis for this match up, based on pre-season estimates derived from each team's recent history, indicates a game played at a pace of 71 possessions, with the Cats winning by 31 points, 90-59 (1.268-0.817 = 0.451 ppp Net Game Efficiency). Pomeroy sees this game with UK having a 25 point advantage, 86-61 played at a pace of 69 possessions.

See how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board at:

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2016-17DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/02_Predictions.png

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:

http://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/Canisius-Prediction-Thread-48904997

Game Summary:

Coach Calipari uses the same starting lineup for the second consecutive game: Edrice (BAM) Adebayo, Derek Willis, Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox, and Isaiah Briscoe in the starting lineup.

Kentucky controls the tip and scores quickly on a drive by De'Aaron Fox. However, Canisius runs off the next 9 points on 4-7 shooting, forcing Coach Calipari to take a timeout with 16:43 remaining in the first half. After the timeout, Isaiah Briscoe scores a pair of baskets to trim the lead to 9-6 at the under 16 media timeout. In the second segment, Isaiah Briscoe continues to lead the way as the Cats catch up at 11-11, and then regain the lead at 13-11 on a fast break basket following a blocked shot by Edrice (BAM) Adebayo. Canisius takes a time out with 13:37 remaining. At the under 12 media timeout, the Cats lead is 3, 16-13 and Canisius in possession.

It appears that this is going to be a struggle for the Cats to the finish. Canisius pulled even on a 3 pointer, and regained the lead and possession on 3 Kentucky turnovers in the third segment. At the under 8 media timeout, Canisius leads by 2, 24-22, and Canisius has the possession. After Canisius extended their lead to 7 points, 29-22, the Cats chipped away at the lead over the balance of the 4 th segment. At the under 4 media timeout, Canisius continues to hold a 2 point lead, 31-29.

After Canisius scores to ease back on top by 4, 33-29, the Cats close the half with a 15-2 run to take a 9 point lead into the locker room, 44-35.

The Cats scored 44 points on 40 possessions, 1.100 points per possession, and Canisius managed their 35 points on 39 possessions, 0.897 ppp. The Cats made 45.5% of their first half shots, including 0-7 from outside the arc. Canisius managed to make 45.7% of their first half shots, including 3-14 from outside the arc.

The Cats made 14-20 free throws (70.0%) and Canisius did not get to the line in the first half.

On the Boards, the Cats controlled the glass 21-20 overall, but the Cats managed a 8-6 advantage on the offensive glass. Despite their offensive rebounding advantage, Canisius won the second chance points 8-4. The Cats secured 36.4% of their misses and allowed Canisius to grab 31.6% of their misses as second chance opportunities.

Second Half:

Canisius opens play in the second half with a turnover. The cats score to move the lead to 10 points for the first time in the game, which is where the lead stands at the under 16 media timeout, 55-45. In the second segment, the Cats extend their lead to 17 points, 65-48 at the under 12 media timeout. Canisius will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes.

In the third segment, the Cats extended their lead to 23 points, but Canisius scored five straight to trim the lead to 19, 73-54, at the under 8 media timeout. In the fourth segment, the Cats move out to a 29 point lead, 84-55, but Canisius trimmed 2 points from that lead at the end of the segment, and can trim one more after the timeout when they have a free throw to complete a 3 point play. With 3:26 remaining, the Cats lead 84-57.

With a 29 point lead, Coach Calipari empties his bench with 2 ½ minutes remaining. The Cats win by 24, 93-69.

Analysis:

UK scored its 93 points in a total of 75 possessions (1.240 ppp) for the game, and Canisius scored its 69 points on a total of 75 possessions 0.920 ppp).

Kentucky won the battle of the boards, with a rebounding edge 39-36, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 15-14. Kentucky used its 15 second chance possessions to score 13 second chance points, and Canisius used its 14 second chance possessions to score 14 second chance points. Canisius had an offensive efficiency of 0.733 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 14 second chance possessions. UK had 1.067 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 0.868 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 40.5%of its misses as offensive rebounds while Canisius was able to convert 36.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 27-39 [69.2%]. Canisius made 13-20 [65.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 31-61 overall [50.8%] and 4-16 from long range [25.0%]. For Canisius, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a strong 22-41 [53.7%] and from long range, Canisius hit 4-21 [19.0%].

The Cats committed 10 turnovers, one for every 7.5 possessions. The Cats forced 18 Canisius turnovers, one for every 4.2 possessions.

Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday night in MSG where the Cats will take on Michigan State in the third regular season game of the 2016-17 season.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Cats Travel To MSG To Take On Michigan State

Go Back
To Cats Puts Stephen F Austin Away