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2018-19 Season Analytical Writings
36
Cats Advance Without P J Washington, and Must Survive Without Him
On Thursday, the big news was not about the pending game against Abilene Christian but about P J Washington in a fixed cast. The UK brain trust characterized a walking boot as a precautionary measure for a foot sprain earlier in the week. Then, on Thursday morning a picture emerged on the internet that showed P J Washington not in a walking boot but a fixed cast. Coach Calipari, seemingly in response to the genie having escaped from the bottle quickly issued a statement to the effect that while x-ray and MRI images of P J Washington's ailing foot were all negative with respect to fractures, since he would not play against Abilene Christian, the doctors wanted to put the foot into the fixed cast, as a “precautionary” measure.
The charade about P J Washington's medical condition continued after the Cats handily disposed of Abilene Christian, with a tease that perhaps the doctors would remove the cast on Friday and perhaps he could still make an appearance on Saturday when the Cats play again. Today, the word leaking, or dripping from the brain trust of this program, seems to be an ever-shifting oozing pile of sand. The latest revelation is the P J Washington will not be available for Saturday's game, and the teasing continues about the upcoming week, should the Cats survive a hot shooting Wofford team on Saturday.
Last season, these same “leaders” never explained the disappearance of Jared Vanderbilt from all basketball action in the month of March, and wind the clock forward one year, these leaders are treating the Big Blue Nation with the same disrespect about one of the most important players, if not the most important player, on this team.
Whispers are changing to a loud chatter over the last 24 hours that P J Washington will never suit up as a Wildcat again. If that is the case, this team's post season hopes, and dreams are greatly diminished, if not extinguished. It is time for this program, and if P J Washington and his family are driving this bus, come clean with the Big Blue Nation.
Oh yeah, the rest of the Cats have another basketball game, this time in the second round of this tournament against #18 Wofford. #18 Wofford is a dangerous second round opponent. Over their first 13 games this season, they won 9 times and lost 4 times to #6 North Carolina by 11, #37 Oklahoma by 11, #17 Kansas by 25, and #20 Mississippi State by 11. Oh yes, Wofford also beat South Carolina in Columbia by 20 points. Their last loss of these four was to Mississippi State on December 19, and Wofford has not lost a game since. That's right, Wofford is riding a 21-game winning streak into Saturday's encounter with an injured, shorthanded group of Wildcats.
Yes, you read that right. Wofford has the 18 th best ANE in the country, brings a 30-4 record into this game, and over the last 21 games Wofford has been playing as well as anyone in the nation. #4 Kentucky posted will put its 28-6 record on the line on Saturday.
Make no mistake that while Abilene Christian was akin to “little David” taking on a fully armed and armored giant, Wofford is not akin to “little David” in this duel, and if Wofford is hurling anything at Goliath (Kentucky) on Saturday, it is more substantial than the rocks that could fling from a sling. Furthermore, Goliath is now missing some of his armor.
Wofford has earned its 30-4 record against a schedule with a SOS value of 0.0152 ppp (#106). Furthermore, Wofford's ANE for the season stands at an impressive 0.217 ppp, and their ANE over the last 21 games is 0.239 ppp.
The Cats' schedule has a SOS value of 0.1046 ppp (#27). The Cats' ANE for the season stands at 0.287 ppp, their season ANE since game 7 has been 0.330 ppp, and their ANE over the last 5 games is 0.381 ppp.
This is a dangerous opponent for Kentucky when at full strength, and frankly my ANE analysis has no capacity to account for a missing player, especially one as important to the team as P J Washington. With that in mind,
The ANE analysis based on Kentucky's ANE since game 7 and Wofford's ANE since game 13 indicates a Kentucky margin of 6 points, 76-70, in a game played at a pace of 68 possessions. As a matter of record, the traditional ANE analysis indicates a 5 point Kentucky advantage and a “last 5” analysis indicates a Kentucky advantage of 8 ½ points. Pomeroy sees this as a 4 point advantage for Kentucky, 72-68, and Vegas gives Kentucky the edge by 5 ½ points.
Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:
http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2018-19DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/35.htm
You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:
Game Summary:
P J Washington will not play today, and his status moving forward is unclear. Coach Calipari stays with E J Montgomery joining Reid Travis, Keldon Johnson, Tyler Herro, and Ashton Hagans. Nick Richards, Immanuel Quickley, and Jemarl Baker will provide reserve support from the bench.
Wofford controls the opening tip and gets the first 5 points of the game on a basket just inside the arc and a 3 point shot before the Cats score. At the under 16 media time out, Wofford leads 8-4. After trailing 11-7, the Cats catch up at 11-11 at the under 12 media time out, and the Cats are in possession. In the second segment, Wofford committed 5 turnovers on its 8 possessions allowing the Cats to close the gap despite 3-8 shooting by Kentucky from the field in the segment, and 5-12 shooting for the game.
In the 3 rd segment, the Cats had two opportunities to take their first lead, but failed to score both times before Wofford hit its 4 th 3 point basket and a jump hook to move on top by a game high 5 points, 16-11. The Cats closed the gap to a single point, 16-15, at the under 8 media time out. In the 4 th segment, the Cats are troubled by an inability to score, and after Wofford moves on top by 6, 21-15, Coach Calipari takes a time out with 5:03 left in the first half. After the time out, the Cats get their only points of the segment when Jemarl Baker is fouled on a 3 point attempt and he converts 3 free throws. However, Wofford gets the points right back when Keldon Johnson fouls one of their 3 point shooters, and the Cats trail by 6, 24-18, at the under 4 media time out with 3:28 left and Wofford in possession.
The Cats have only made 7 baskets on 23 attempts (30%) and 0-6 from long range while Wofford has made over 44% of their shots including 5-10 from long range. In the final segment of the first half, the Cats catch up for the second time this game at 24-24, and moved into their first lead of the game at 26-24. After Wofford tied the score at 26-26, Reid Travis made a pair of free throws with 1 second left to give the Cats a 2 point lead at halftime, 28-26.
The Cats scored 28 points on 30 possessions, 0.933 points per possession, and WOFFORD managed their 26 points on 30 possessions 0.867 ppp. The Cats made 40.7% of their first half shots, including 0-6 from outside the arc. WOFFORD managed to make 40.9% of their first half shots, including 5-12 from outside the arc.
The Cats made 6-7 free throws (85.7%) and WOFFORD was 3-5 (60.0%) from the line in the first half.
Kentucky committed 4 turnovers to 7 by the Wofford.
On the Boards, the Cats won the glass 15-12 overall, and Kentucky won the offensive glass 4-1. Wofford won the second chance points 3-2. The Cats secured 26.7% of their misses and allowed WOFFORD to grab 8.3% of their misses as second chance opportunities.
Second Half:
Wofford opens the second half and immediately scores to tie the score again, 28-28. After trading baskets to a 30-30 tie, Wofford moved back into the lead, 32-30. Jemarl Baker ties the score again at 35-35 on the Cats' first 3 point basket of the game, and Ashton Hagans will be at the line for a pair of free throws after the under 16 media time out with the 35-35 tie score. Over the balance of the second segment, the Cats outscored the Terriers 10-2 to move out to a game high 8 point lead, 45-37. Wofford takes a time out with 12:02 left in the game.
After the time out, Wofford gets a second chance basket followed by a Kentucky turnover. Wofford gets another second chance basket to trim the 8 point lead to 4, 45-41. The Cats move out to their largest lead of the game, 9 points, 50-41, but Wofford trims the lead to 6 on another 3 point basket. After a rebounding foul by Keldon Johnson, his 4 th foul, the game goes to the under 8 media time out with the Cats on top by 6, 50-44 and Wofford in possession. Wofford trims the lead to 3 on their 7 th 3 point basket of the day, but Tyler Herro answers with his first 3 point basket of the game, the Cats' 3 rd , to lead by 6, 57-51, at the under 4 media time out with 3:36 left in the game. Nick Richards will be at the line for a pair of free throws after the timeout.
Nick Richards made the first and missed the second, and when Wofford makes its 8 th 3 point basket of the game, the lead is only 4, 58-54 with 2:40 left. The Cats fail to get a score, and after Wofford missed on three in a row from close to the hoop, Coach Calipari takes a time out with 1:48 left and the cats up 4. The commit a turnover out of the time out. The Cats are unable to extend the lead, and Wofford cuts the lead to 2 points on a put back basket with 38 seconds left in the game. The Cats have the ball, up 2 58-56 with 38 seconds left in the game.
Reid Travis makes a pair of free throws with 17 seconds left. After a Wofford missed shot, the Cats get the ball as the ball caromed out of bounds. Tyler Herro is fouled with 4 seconds left and the Cats on top by 4. Tyler Herro makes them both, and the Cats win 62-56.
Analysis:
UK scored its 62 points on 60 possessions (1.033 ppp) for the game, and WOFFORD scored its 56 points on 60 possessions (0.933 ppp).
Kentucky won the battle of the boards 36-30, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards with a rebounding edge 11-9. Both teams scored 10 second chance points. WOFFORD had an offensive efficiency of 0.767 ppp on its 60 first chance possessions and 1.111 ppp for its 9 second chance possessions. UK had 0.867ppp on its 60 first chance possessions and 0.909 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 34.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while WOFFORD was able to convert 26.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK made 17-20 (85.0%) from the free throw line in this game. WOFFORD made 6-9 [66.7%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 21-52 overall [40.4%] and 3-13 from long range [23.1%]. For WOFFORD, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 13-31 [41.9%] and from long range, WOFFORD hit 8-25 [32.0%].
The Cats committed 10 turnovers, one for every 6.0 possessions. The Cats forced 9 WOFFORD turnovers, one for every 6.7 possessions.
Next Game On Schedule: The Cats will play either Ohio State or Houston on Friday in Kansas City in the NCAA Sweet 16.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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