BIG BLUE FANS FOR
2019-20 Season Analytical Writings
When the Cats hit the road a week ago for a two game swing through South Carolina and Arkansas, many believed the Cats needed to get at least one road win and hoped to get two. The Cats return to Rupp on Tuesday having split the two games, but the Cats won the game regarded as most difficult of the two and lost to the weaker opponent on that trip. When the Cats return to the Rupp floor Tuesday, they will face Georgia for the second time in two weeks, the first rematch of the 2019-20 season.
Two weeks ago, the Cats beat the Dawgs by 9, 78-69 despite trailing at the half by 6, 37-31. In the second half, the Cats clawed into a 1 point lead, 58-57, on a 3 point basket by Immanuel Quickley with 8:04 left in the game. The Cats did not relinquish the lead over the closing 8 minutes of the game.
Since that game, the Dawgs have lost 2 of their 3 games, losing at Auburn and Mississippi State and beating Tennessee in Athens. Meanwhile, the Cats have won 2 of their 3 games, losing at South Carolina and winning at Arkansas and over Alabama at Rupp. Georgia brings an 11-6, 1-3 record into Rupp, and the Cats will put their 13-4, 4-1 record on the line.
Georgia's current ANE is an 0.093 ppp against a schedule strength of 0.051 ppp and a tempo of 73.0 possessions per game. The Cats bring an ANE of 0.204 ppp into this game having played a schedule strength of 0.049 ppp at a tempo of 70.1 possessions per game.
Based on this data for these teams, an ANE analysis indicates this game will have a tempo of 72 possessions with the Cats winning by 12 points, 78-66.
It is intuitively clear than not all 12-point wins or losses are created equal. The quality of any win depends upon the final margin, the strength of the opponent, and the venue of the game.
The table provides tools to evaluate this game's final margin considering the relevant factors. This table separates game outcomes into three ranges, red, tan, and green. Over the years, Calipari's strongest teams win most of their games on the season in the green range and the fewest number of games end in the red range. Conversely, Calipari's weakest teams win most of their games in the red and fewest in the green ranges. move the game into the strong group while smaller margins move the game into the poor range.
The most recent information indicates Dontaie Allen is still not working practices but may be close. Coach Calipari starts Keion Brooks, E. J. Montgomery, Nick Richards, Immanuel Quickley, and Ashton Hagans, to start the 16 th game of this season against the Georgia. Nate Sestina, Kahlil Whitney, Tyrese Maxey, and Johnny Juzang will come off the bench.
Kentucky controls the opening tip and Ashton Hagans scores on a baseline jump shot. After a turnover by Georgia on its first possession, the Cats move on top 4-0. The Cats extended the early lead to a game high 8 points, 10-2, at the under 16 media timeout. In the second segment, Georgia trimmed the lead to 6 before the Cats moved on top by a game high 10 points, 18-8, at the under 12 media timeout with 11:00 left in the first half.
In the 3 rd segment, the Cats matched Georgia basket for basket until the end of the sement when Georgia closed the gap to only 4 points, 24-20, at the under 8 media timeout with 7:23 left in the first half. After the break, the Cats ease back on top by 8, 28-20. However, Georgia goes on a 9-0 run to move into its first lead of the game, 29-28. Coach Calipari takes a timeout with 5:29 left. After the break, the Cats not only stop the Georgia run, but score 7 straight points to move back on top by 6, 35-29. Georgia takes a timeout with 4:11 left in the first half.
Over the final segment, the Cats maintain the 6 point lead and lead by 6, 41-35 at the half.
The Cats scored 41 points on 36 possessions, 1.139 points per possession, and GEORGIA managed their 35 points on 36 possessions, 0.972 ppp. The Cats made 50.0% of their first half shots, including 1-7 from outside the arc. GEORGIA managed to make 34.3% of their first half shots, including 3-15 from outside the arc.
The Cats made 16-18 free throws (88.9%) and GEORGIA made 8-10 (80.0%).
On the Boards, the Dawgs controlled the glass 19-17 overall, and Georgia controlled the offensive glass 10-3. Georgia earned an advantage on second chance points of 10-4. The Cats secured 25.0% of their misses and allowed GEORGIA to grab 41.7% of their misses as second chance opportunities.
Georgia opens the second half back to back baskets around a Kentucky turnover to trim the lead to 2 points, 41-39 after only 30 seconds. Coach Calipari takes a timeout. The Cats respond by moving back on top by 6 with a pair of baskets, and lead by 8, 55-47 at the under 16 media timeout with 14:52 left in the game. Georgia pulls back to within 3 points after the timeout, and in the shortened second segment, the teams play the game with a 3 to 5 point margin, and the Cats are on top by 5, 59-54, at the under 12 media timeout.
In the third segment, the Cats extend their lead to a game high 13 point, 69-56 forcing a Georgia timeout with 8:50 left. The Cats lead by 12, 70-58, at the under 8 media timeout. In the 4 th segment, the Cats eased on top by 12, 79-67 at the under 4 media timeout.
A pair of free throws by Tyrese Maxey lifts the Cats to a 16 point lead, the biggest of the game, 83-67. After the Cats move up by 15, 85-70, Georgia scores 5 quick points to trim the lead back to 10 with 1:21 left in the game.
Cats win by 10, 89-79.
UK scored its 89 points on 73 possessions (1.219 ppp) for the game, and GEORGIA scored its 79 points on 74 possessions (1.068 ppp).
Kentucky won the battle of the boards 38-31, and Kentucky fought back in the second half on the offensive glass to tie Georgia, 12-12 which produced a 12-10 advantage on second chance points for the Cats. GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.932 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.833 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 1.055 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 38.7%of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA was able to convert 31.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 26-33 [78.8%]. GEORGIA made 19-23 [82.6%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 31-59 overall [52,5%] and 1-9 from long range [11.1%]. For Georgia, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 21-37 [56.8%] and from long range, GEORGIA hit 6-25 [24.0%].
The Cats committed 11 turnovers, one for every 6.6 possessions. The Cats forced 12 GEORGIA turnovers, one for every 6.2 possessions.
Next Game On Schedule: Saturday evening at Texas Tech in the annual SEC-Big 12 Challenge and the Cats' nineteenth regular season game of the 2020 SEC season.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Submitted by Richard Cheeks